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Journal : International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Rainfall Forecasting Soebroto, Arief Andy; Limantara, Lily Montarcih; Mahmudy, Wayan Firdaus; Sholichin, Moh.; Hidayat, Nurul; Kharisma, Agi Putra
International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology Vol 5, No 4 (2025)
Publisher : Malikussaleh University, Aceh, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52088/ijesty.v5i4.1179

Abstract

Climate change is a significant challenge for both humans and the environment, with its impacts increasingly felt across various regions of the world. The most evident consequence is the alteration of extreme weather patterns, which often lead to destructive and life-threatening natural disasters. Among these, extreme rainfall was the most damaging factor, frequently triggering floods. However, the increasing occurrence of related events outlined the urgent need for developing more accurate rainfall forecasting systems as a strategic measure for disaster risk reduction. This research adopted daily rainfall data from Samarinda City, collected between 2004 and 2012, to conduct prediction using both machine and deep learning methods. The implementation of machine learning methods, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), enabled the model to learn from historical data and uncover complex patterns, resulting in accurate forecasts and improved adaptability to climate variability. Meanwhile, deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), enhanced prediction performance by capturing more intricate and abstract data relationships. Performance evaluations conducted using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) showed that deep learning outperformed machine learning in accuracy. The LSTM model achieved the best performance, with loss values of 0.0482 and 0.0527 for MSE and MAE, respectively. The advantage of deep learning lies in its ability to build more complex models for handling non-linear problems and to learn data representations at various levels of abstraction, which has led to more accurate results. Furthermore, LSTM surpassed RNN by effectively overcoming the vanishing gradient issue, allowing for more stable and efficient training that led to superior predictive performance.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Agi Putra Kharisma, Agi Putra Amrul, Muhammad Alfarisy Andono, Rizky Harsya Andre Primantyo H., Andre Primantyo Arief Andy Soebroto Arif Rahmad Darmawan AS Dwi Saptati Nur Hidayati, AS Dwi Saptati Nur Ayisya Cindy Harifa Bambang Ismuyanto Cahyani, Sylvia Regita Dedy Febrianto Nadjamuddin, Dedy Febrianto Dian Sisinggih Diana, Eka Wahyu Donny Harisuseno Emma Yuliani Endang Purwati RN Evi Nur Cahya Fahmi Zamroni, Fahmi Felani, Gita Fitri Ferina, Marisa Ayu hari siswoyo Harri Pranowo Indrajayatama, Ridho Satria Ireldi Pratama, Faris Ismuyanto , Bambang Kurnianto, Noval Irfan Kurniawan, Dita Cahya Leo Arbi Wibowo Lily Montarcih Limantara Limantara, Lily M. M. Bisri Majid, Haidar Naufal Mandasari, Fetri Maulana, Firhand Mohammad Rahdiansyah Batubara, Mohammad Rahdiansyah Montarcih Limantara, Lily Muhtasar, Iqbal Maulana Nathania, Nadya Ayu Nugraha, Aldi Nugroho, Faishal Dary Nurul Hidayat Palupi, Gema Anggun Pane, Yasmin Pebriani Sitorus Pitojo Tri Juwono Putri, Dea Anggara Putu Ratih Wijayanti Qadri S, Wahyuddin Rahadjeng, Aira Azzahra Rahayu, Gayatri Putri Rares, Johan Peter Rini Wahyu Sayekti Rispiningtati Rispiningtati Riyanto Haribowo Rohmaningsih, Elin Runi Asmaranto Saptati N. H., A. S. Dwi Sari, Chudiana Mega Simanjuntak, Yogi Ricardo P Sinantrya, Mutiara Sri Wahyuni Susilo, H. Suwanto Marsudi Tri Budi Prayogo, Tri Budi Ussy Andawayanti Very Dermawan Wahlul Sodikin Wahyu Nafier A. Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy Widandi Soetopo yuriski, ryan isra' Yuwono, Hari