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Journal : Economics Development Analysis Journal

The Influence of Macroeconomic on Investment Performance Firmansyah, Muhammad; Mu'ammal, Immanuel; Anggun Tsalasa, Arini Roro
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol. 13 No. 3 (2024): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v13i3.8491

Abstract

Shocks caused by macroeconomic variables and monetary transmission have impacted investment portfolios in the five ASEAN countries, both in the short and long term. This research aims to evaluate each country's proficiency in managing macroeconomic variables in relation to portfolio investments. Additionally, it seeks to explore the influence of these macroeconomic variables on portfolio investment and the time required for their effects to manifest in both short-term and long-term contexts. This study is quantitative in nature and uses secondary data. The data were sourced from the central banks of the ASEAN-5 countries and from investing.com for stock price index information. The results indicate that interest rates, exchange rates, and stock price indexes significantly affect portfolio investment in the short term. In contrast, in the long term, inflation, exchange rates, and money supply were found to have a significant impact on portfolio investment. Based on these findings, it is recommended that ASEAN-5 governments focus on exchange rates and economic openness, as these factors influence portfolio investment in the region and can attract investors' interest
Rational and Irrational Factors Influencing Bank Stock Prices: GMM Approach Muhammad Firmansyah; Sri Budi Cantika Yuli; Stanislaw Flejterski
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol. 14 No. 4 (2025): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v14i4.29643

Abstract

In the dynamic and volatile capital market, understanding the factors that influence stock prices is essential for making informed investment decisions. Stock price movements are influenced by rational, fundamental information, irrational investor behavior, and sentiment. This study aims to analyze the influence of rational and irrational factors on stock prices in the Indonesian banking sector during the 2020-2024 period. The rational variables include price-to-book value (PBV), financial literacy, technology adoption, and interest rates, while irrational influence is represented by investor sentiment or mood. Using a dynamic panel data approach with the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), this study examines four major Indonesian banks: Bank Mandiri, BNI, BRI, and BCA. The results show that PBV, financial literacy, and technology adoption significantly affect stock prices, while interest rates have a significant negative effect. Additionally, investor sentiment has a considerable positive impact, indicating that emotional and psychological factors can drive stock price movements beyond fundamental valuation. This research presents a novel analytical model that integrates rational and irrational perspectives, offering a comprehensive understanding of stock price volatility in emerging markets. It suggests that investors, companies, and policymakers must consider both fundamental indicators and market sentiment simultaneously to make accurate, timely investment decisions.