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Perbandingan Model ARIMA-RBF dan ARIMA-GARCH dalam Peramalan Time Series Inflasi Provinsi Gorontalo Awalia Emiro; Isran K Hasan; Novianita Achmad
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023): November 2022-April 2023
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v2i1.76

Abstract

A quantitative method that is observed sequentially from time to time is a time series. In the real word, problems often occur where one method is not able to solve the problem. This research used linear and nonlinear methods by combining the ARIMA-RBF anda ARIMA-GARCH models in forecasting, and then the two models were compared based on the MAPE value. This research used monthly data on inflation for housing, water, electricity, and other fuels from 2008 to 2020. The forecast results from the ARIMA-RBF model obtained the MAPE value of 7.5%, and the ARIMA-GARCH model obtained the MAPE value of 11.8%. thus, the best model for predicting inflation in this research was the ARIMA RBF model.
Metode North West Corner dengan Uji Modified Distribution Untuk Meminimumkan Biaya Distribusi Gas Elpiji Anna Chintia Dewi; Novianita Achmad; Muhammad Rezky Friesta Payu
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023): November 2022-April 2023
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v2i1.86

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui biaya minimum pendistribusian tabung LPG 3kg dengan metode North West Corner dengan uji optimal Modified Distribution. Penelitian ini dilakukan di dua Agen yaitu PT. Toyungo dan PT.Hasanah Inti Bumi Abadi. Adapun kegunaan dari penelitian ini untuk meningkatkan dan memperbaiki sistem distribusi perusahaan. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah menggunakan model transportasi. Dari Hasil penelitian dan perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada perbedaan biaya optimal antara perhitungan metode North West Corner dengan Uji Optimal Modified Distribution. Biaya minimum dengan metode North west Corner dengan uji optimal Modified Distribution pada distribusi tabung LPG 3kg menghasilkan biaya sebesar Rp. 1.447.530.100.
Peramalan Inflasi di Provinsi Gorontalo Menggunakan Metode General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) Isran K Hasan; Novianita Achmad; Putri Lapitung
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 3 No. 1 (2024): November 2023-April 2024
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v3i1.150

Abstract

Forecasting the inflation rate is important because the results obtained are used as an indicator that can influence the policies that will be made later. One policy that uses the results of this forecasting as one of the things that can influence it is economic policy and monetary policy. In this study, the method used is the general regression neural network (GRNN). This forecast is applied to inflation data in Gorontalo Province from January 2008 to April 2023, with the conclusion that it produces an inflation forecast for May – December 2023 with a MAPE value of 3.24% or an accuracy rate of 96.76%.
Meningkatkan Hasil Belajar Siswa Menggunakan Model Problem-Based Learning Pada Materi Transformasi Alvia Dita; Novianita Achmad; Dewi Rahmawaty Isa
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): November 2024-April 2025
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v4i1.153

Abstract

This research aims to enhance students' learning outcomes using the Problem-Based Learning model on the topic of Transformation. This study is a classroom action research conducted collaboratively between researchers and teachers involving 30 students in class IX of Satap Tobongon Public Junior High School in the academic year 2023/2024. The research was conducted in two cycles, each comprising three meetings. Instruments used in this study included teacher activity observation sheets, student activity observation sheets, attitude assessment sheets, skill assessment sheets, and learning outcome tests. Data collection was performed through observations and written tests. The research results indicate that the observed teacher activity, categorized as good and very good, increased from 69.44% to 86.11%. Similarly, the observed student activity, categorized as good and very good, increased from 59.38% to 84.38%. Students' learning outcomes improved in the cognitive domain from 66.67% to 86.67%, in the affective domain from 65.00% to 85.83%, and in the psychomotor domain from 67.50% to 85.00%. Thus, all assessment aspects have achieved the learning success indicators in cycle II through the use of the Problem-Based Learning model.