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Journal : Journal of Science and Technology

Pemodelan Laju Perubahan Nilai Tukar Rupiah (IDR) terhadap Dolar Amerika (USD) dengan Metode Markov Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) Yurinanda, Sherli; Putri, Darvi Mailisa
JOSTECH: Journal of Science and Technology Vol 1, No 1: Maret 2021
Publisher : UIN Imam Bonjol Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (340.907 KB) | DOI: 10.15548/jostech.v1i1.2438

Abstract

This study aims to determine the modeling of the exchange rate change rate of the Rupiah (IDR) against the US dollar (USD) using the Markov Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) method. The research data is sourced from secondary data through website investing to see the Rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar with a time span from January to December 2020. The results show that the best model obtained is MS(2)AR(3) with parameters = 0.031119 and = -0.000504, where when state = 1, the average rate of change in the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is 0.031119 per day, while when state = 2 the average rate of change in the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is -0.000504 per day. 
Pemodelan Harga Saham Menggunakan Geometric Brownian Motion Ul Hasanah, Fitri Rahmah; Putri, Darvi Mailisa
JOSTECH: Journal of Science and Technology Vol 2, No 1: Maret 2022
Publisher : UIN Imam Bonjol Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15548/jostech.v2i1.3801

Abstract

Stocks are something that is still interesting to this day to be discussed. Because the price tends to fluctuate, it is necessary to make predictions for the future in order to reduce losses for investors. Geometric Brownian Motion is a model for predicting stock prices by conducting a study through stock return data obtained. Stock return data is required to meet the assumptions of Geometric Brownian Motion. After that, the average value and volatility of the stock return data of PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk. from January 04th to June 30th 2021 amounted to  -0,002376925 and 0,0212161. Through stock return parameters and data generation with a standard normal distribution, a model that is very close to the actual stock price data is obtained.
Pengaruh Minat Belajar dan Motivasi Belajar terhadap Prestasi Belajar Mahasiswa Program Studi Matematika pada Mata Kuliah Statistika Deskriptif Rani Kurnia Putri; Darvi Mailisa Putri; Lilis Harianti Hasibuan
JOSTECH Journal of Science and Technology Vol 3, No 2: September 2023
Publisher : UIN Imam Bonjol Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15548/jostech.v3i2.6906

Abstract

This study aims to describe the effect of interest in learning and learning motivation on student achievement in the mathematics study program at the Imam Bonjol State Islamic University, Padang. The type of research used is quantitative. The sample used in this study was 74 students using simple random sampling. This study used instruments on the scale of interest in learning and learning motivation as well as documentation of student achievement in the mathematics study program. Data analysis used in this research is descriptive statistical analysis and multiple regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that interest in learning and learning motivation affect student achievement in mathematics study programs in descriptive statistics courses obtained by the multiple linear regression equation The variables of learning motivation and interest in learning have a contribution of 0.485 or around 48.5% while the rest are influenced by other factors.
Analisis Pergerakan Harga Emas Berjangka Menggunakan Model Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain Afrimayani Afrimayani; Darvi Mailisa Putri
JOSTECH Journal of Science and Technology Vol 3, No 2: September 2023
Publisher : UIN Imam Bonjol Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15548/jostech.v3i2.6994

Abstract

Gold is one type of precious metal that can be an investment instrument to protect the value of wealth. Gold price movements need to be known in investing, this can be observed usinga time series model that can predict gold prices in the next period. Gold price movement models can be used as investor guidelines in planning and decision making to increase profits and prevent losses. Gold price movements modeled with a numerical approach can be done through the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain (FTSMC) model. The modeling results show that the FTSMC can model gold prices and has good accuracy values with small MAPE, RMSE, and MAE values. This indicates an excellent goodness of fit for the FTSMC model. Long-term stability for gold price movements provides investment benefits because gold has value as an asset that tends to be stable, easy to liquidate in cash, free from interest, has a role as an emergency fund and can protect the value of wealth.
Penerapan Model Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) pada Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api di Sumatera Barat Serly Cania; Darvi Mailisa Putri; Ilham Dangu Rianjaya
JOSTECH Journal of Science and Technology Vol 3, No 2: September 2023
Publisher : UIN Imam Bonjol Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15548/jostech.v3i2.6880

Abstract

This study aims to obtain a model and determine the best model of the results of the number of train passengers in West Sumatra using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrate Moving Average (SARIMA). The research data comes from secondary data obtained from PT.KAI (Persero) Regional Division II West Sumatra to see the number of train passengers with a time span of January 2017 to April 2020. The results showed that the best model obtained was SARIMA. Selection of the best model based on the smallest AIC value of several models that have been obtained through ACF and PACF plots. Based on the best model, the forecasting results are close to the actual data, so the SARIMA model is suitable for forecasting.
Penerapan ARIMA Pada Data Curah Hujan di Stasiun Meteorologi Kelas II Minangkabau Padang Pariaman Nur, Rizki Amalia; Putri, Darvi Mailisa
JOSTECH Journal of Science and Technology Vol 4, No 1: Maret 2024
Publisher : UIN Imam Bonjol Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15548/jostech.v4i1.8361

Abstract

Rainfall is one of the indicators of climate change that has an impact. Class II Minangkabau Meteorological Station Padang Pariaman is one of the locations that has an impact on rainfall. This location is Minangkabau International Airport so that rainfall information is very important. The rainfall data used in this study is monthly data with the period January 2017 to June 2022. The ARIMA model is applied to perform forecasting or prediction of rainfall data for the next period. The results of the study based on the analysis of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value obtained the best model ARIMA (3,1,0).