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The Construction of Patient Loyalty Model Using Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling Approach Rahmadita, Astari; Yanuar, Ferra; Devianto, Dodi
CAUCHY Vol 5, No 2 (2018): CAUCHY
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (631.337 KB) | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v5i2.5039

Abstract

The information on the health status of an individual is often gathered based on a health survey. Patient assessment on the quality of hospital services is important as a reference in improving the service so that it can increase a patient satisfaction and patient loyalty. The concepts of health service are often involve multivariate factors with multidimensional sructure of corresponding factors. One of the methods that can be used to model such these variables is SEM (Structural Equation Modeling). Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) is a multivariate method that incorporates ideas from regression, path-analysis and factor analysis. A Bayesian approach to SEM may enable models that reflect hypotheses based on complex theory. Bayesian SEM is used to construct the model for describing the patient loyalty at Puskesmas in Padang City. The convergence test with the history of trace plot, density plot and the model consistency test were performed with three different prior types. Based on Bayesian SEM approach, it is found that the quality of service and patient satisfaction significantly related to the patient loyalty.
Simulation Study The Using of Bayesian Quantile Regression in Nonnormal Error Muharisa, Catrin; Yanuar, Ferra; Devianto, Dodi
CAUCHY Vol 5, No 3 (2018): CAUCHY
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (557.993 KB) | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v5i3.5633

Abstract

The purposes of this paper is  to introduce the ability of the Bayesian quantile regression method in overcoming the problem of the nonnormal errors using asymmetric laplace distribution on simulation study. Method: We generate data and set distribution of error is asymmetric laplace distribution error, which is non normal data.  In this research, we solve the nonnormal problem using quantile regression method and Bayesian quantile regression method and then we compare. The approach of the quantile regression is to separate or divide the data into any quantiles, estimate the conditional quantile function and minimize absolute error that is asymmetrical. Bayesian regression method used the asymmetric laplace distribution in likelihood function. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method using Gibbs sampling algorithm is applied then to estimate the parameter in Bayesian regression method. Convergency and confidence interval of parameter estimated are also checked. Result: Bayesian quantile regression method results has more significance parameter and smaller confidence interval than quantile regression method. Conclusion: This study proves that Bayesian quantile regression method can produce acceptable parameter estimate for nonnormal error.
Simulation Study The Implementation of Quantile Bootstrap Method on Autocorrelated Error Saputri, Ovi Delviyanti; Yanuar, Ferra; Devianto, Dodi
CAUCHY Vol 5, No 3 (2018): CAUCHY
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (689.615 KB) | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v5i3.5349

Abstract

Quantile regression is a regression method with the approach of separating or dividing data into certain quantiles by minimizing the number of absolute values from asymmetrical errors to overcome unfulfilled assumptions, including the presence of autocorrelation. The resulting model parameters are tested for accuracy using the bootstrap method. The bootstrap method is a parameter estimation method by re-sampling from the original sample as much as R replication. The bootstrap trust interval was then used as a test consistency test algorithm constructed on the estimator by the quantile regression method. And test the uncommon quantile regression method with bootstrap method. The data obtained in this test is data replication 10 times. The biasness is calculated from the difference between the quantile estimate and bootstrap estimation. Quantile estimation methods are said to be unbiased if the standard deviation bias is less than the standard bootstrap deviation. This study proves that the estimated value with quantile regression is within the bootstrap percentile confidence interval and proves that 10 times replication produces a better estimation value compared to other replication measures. Quantile regression method in this study is also able to produce unbiased parameter estimation values.
PENERAPAN METODE SAE DENGAN PENDEKATAN EMPIRICAL BAYES BERBASIS MODEL BETA BINOMIAL PADA DATA BANGKITAN Yanuar, Ferra; Fajriyah, Rahmatika; Devianto, Dodi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 14, No 1 (2021): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.14.1.1-9

Abstract

Small Area Estimation is one of the methods that can be used to estimate parameters in an area that has a small population. This study aims to estimate the value of the binary data parameter using the direct estimation method and an indirect estimation method by using the Empirical Bayes approach. To illustrate the method, we consider three conditions: direct estimator, empirical Bayes (EB) with auxiliary variables, and empirical Bayes without auxiliary variables. The smaller value of Mean Square Error is used to determine the better method. The results showed that the indirect estimation methods (EB method) gave the parameter value that was not much different from the direct estimation value. Then, the MSE values of indirect estimation with an auxiliary variable are smaller than the direct estimation method.
Regresi Logistik Bootstrap untuk Menentukan Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kemampuan Wirausaha Muhammad Ridho; Dodi Devianto
Jurnal Matematika MANTIK Vol. 5 No. 1 (2019): Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (483.747 KB) | DOI: 10.15642/mantik.2019.5.1.10-18

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that affect the level of entrepreneurial capability in tourism of rural area in Nagari Salayo of West Sumatra. The level of entrepreneurial capability is the response variable in this study with an ordinal scale consisting of four categories, they are lower, middle, high, or very high. Whereas the predictor variables consist of 4 socio-demographic factor variables, they are gender, education level, age group and occupation, and also 5 entrepreneurial motivation variables. To determine the predictor variables that are significantly affecting response variables, an ordinal logistic regression with a bootstrap estimation is executed. The study’s result shows two predictor variables that affect the response variable significantly, they are the entrepreneurial motive and social motive with the hit ratio of 61,667%. With that result, the model formed by bootstrapping logistic regression is able to determine the level of entrepreneurial capability in tourism of the rural area.
Model Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan menggunakan Artificial Neural Network dan Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Mutia Yollanda; Dodi Devianto; Putri Permathasari
Jurnal Matematika MANTIK Vol. 5 No. 2 (2019): Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15642/mantik.2019.5.2.112-122

Abstract

The Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index is an indicator of changes in stock prices are a guide for investors to invest in reducing risk. Fluctuations in stock data tend to violate the assumptions of normality, homoscedasticity, autocorrelation, and multicollinearity. This problem can be overcome by modelling the Composite Stock Price Index uses an artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS). In this study, the time-series data from the Composite Stock Price Index starting in April 2003 to March 2018 with its predictor variables are crude oil prices, interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, gold prices, Down Jones, and Nikkei 225. Based on the coefficient of determination, the determination coefficient of ANN is 0.98925, and the MARS determination coefficient is 0.99427. While based on the MAPE value, MAPE value of ANN was obtained, namely 6.16383 and MAPE value of MARS, which was 4.51372. This means that the ANN method and the good MARS method are used to forecast the value of the Indonesian Composite Stock Index in the future, but the MARS method shows the accuracy of the model is slightly better than ANN.
Klasifikasi Risiko Kematian Pasien Covid-19 Menggunakan Regresi Logistik Biner Bayesian (RLBB) Muhammad Qolbi Shobri; Ferra Yanuar; Dodi Devianto
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi Vol. 18 No. 1 (2021): September 2021
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/j.v18i1.14268

Abstract

At the end of 2019 the world was shocked by a new disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2). The disease is called Covid-19 (Coronavirus Disease). The mortality rate due to disease is increasing every day. In Indonesia as of April 2021, confirmed Covid-19 patients who died reached 42,530 patients, seeing the high mortality rate of Covid-19 patients so it needs to be studied further so that the risk of death of these Covid-19 patients can be minimized. This research utilizing  binary logistic regression with Bayesian method parameter estimation. In this study, the predictor variables used were in the form of categories that each category in the predictor variables was assumed to have the same risk of death risk of Covid-19 patients. The results of this study indicate that the number of comorbids has a significant effect on the risk of death of Covid-19 patients, the more the number of comorbids suffered by the patient, the higher the risk of death of the patient. The accuracy of this method in classifying data is 84.68%.
MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE DAN REGRESI KUANTIL PADA INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN PERIODE 2013-2018 Putri Permathasari; Dodi Devianto; Mayastri Mayastri
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 6, No 2 (2018): Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, UNIMUS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (572.892 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.6.2.2018.%p

Abstract

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan yang disingkat dengan IHSG adalah indikator pergerakan harga saham. IHSG merupakan salah satu pedoman bagi investor untuk melakukan investasi di pasar modal. Data IHSG yang fluktuatif cendrung melanggar asumsi normalitas, homoskedastisitas, autokorelasi, dan multikolinearitas. Permasalahan tersebut dapat diatasi dengan memodelkan data IHSG menggunakan regresi nonparametrik diantaranya metode Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS)dan metode Regresi Kuantil, dengan variabel prediktor suku bunga, inflasi, nilai tukar (kurs), gold, Indeks Down Jones dan Indeks Nikkei 225. Data IHSG yang digunakan adalah periode April 2013 sampai dengan April 2018. Model terbaik dipilih dengan membandingkan nilai R2 dan MSE metode MARS dan metode Regresi Kuantil. Dari analisis nilai R2 metode MARS lebih besar dari metode Regresi Kuantil. Sedangkan nilai MSE metode MARS lebih kecil dari metode Regresi Kuantil. Ini artinya regresiMARS lebih baik digunakan pada penelitian IHSG ini.  Kata kunci : Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS), Regrsi Kuantil, IHSG.
The Definite Positive Property of Characteristic Function from Compound Geometric Distribution as The Sum of Gamma Distribution Darvi Mailisa Putri; Maiyastri Maiyastri; Dodi Devianto
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 3 No. 1 (2018): January
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1343.352 KB) | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2018.3.1.49-52

Abstract

In this expository article we survey characterization of compound geometric distribution as the sum of gamma distribution. The characterization of this compound distribution is obtained by using the property of characteristic function as the Laplace-Stieltjes transform. The property of definite positive characteristice function of compound geometric distribution as the sum of gamma distribution is explained by analytical methods as the quadratic form of characteristic function.
The Property of Continuity And Positively Definite Characteristic Function of Compound Poisson Distribution As The Sum of Geometric Distribution Sherli Yurinanda; Ferra Yanuar; Dodi Devianto
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 3 No. 2 (2018): April
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (566.823 KB) | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2018.3.2.53-58

Abstract

The compound Poisson distribution as the sum of independent and identically random variables from geometric distribution is characterized by using characteristic function. The characteristic function of this compound distribution is obtained by Laplace-Stieltjes transform. It is provided a characterization of this compound distribution employing the properties of characteristic function as continuous and positively definite function.
Co-Authors Abdi Mulya Admi Nazra Afrimayani Afrimayani Ainul Mardhiyah Almuhayar, Mawanda Amalia Dwi Putri AMALIA DWI PUTRI ANNISA RAHMADIAH Arfarani Rosalindari ARNEZDA PUTRI Arrival Rince Putri Asdi, Yudiantri Astari Rahmadita Aulia Safitri Bahri, Susila Baqi, Ahmad Iqbal Boby Canigia Budi Rudianto Bukti Ginting Cesa Febri Desti Cichi Chelchillya Candra Cichi Chelchillya Candra Cindyana Aldrifisia Cintya Mukti Citra Ariadini Chairunnisa Claudia Putri Zoelanda Darvi Mailisa Putri Defriman Djafri Delvia Alhusna Des Welyyanti Desi Susanti Dina Monica DIRAMADHONA MUTIASALISA Efendi Efendi Eka Rahmi Kahar Elfindri, Elfindri Elisa Sri Hastuti Elsa Wahyuni Elvi Yati Ermanely Ermanely Fadila Aulia Fadila Rasyid Fadilla Nisa Uttaqi Fajriyah, Rahmatika Faldo Aditya Farhah Anggana Fery Murtiningrum Fery Murtiningrum Finti Warni FITARI RESMALANI FITRI SABRINA Fitria Sarah Frilianda Wulandari Gusmanely Z Hafiz Rahman HANDIKA WAHYU VIKRANTHA Hasibuan, Lilis Harianti Hazmira Yozza Herliani Evinda Husnul Fikri Ihsan Kamal Ikhlas Pratama Sandi Irfan Suliansyah Istiqamah . Iswahyuli . Izzati Rahmi HG Jatu Visitasari Jayanti Herli Kamarni, Neng Khatimah, Havifah Husnatul Kiki Ramadani Lana Fauziah Lathifah Yulyanisa Lily Zuhrat Lita Wulandari Aeli Livia Amanda LOLANDA SYAMDENA M. Pio Hidayatullah M. Rizki Oktavian Maisan Nusa Putri Maiyastri, Maiyastri Majbur, Ridha Fauza maMaiyastri Maiyastri Mardha Tillah Maulini Septya Mawanda Almuhayar Mayastri Mayastri Melinda Noer Melisa Febriyana MUHAMMAD HAFANDRY Muhammad Iqbal Muhammad Qolbi Shobri Muhammad Ridho Muharisa, Catrin Mutia Yollanda Nadia Husna Nadya Risna Putri Narwen Narwen Nisa, Alvi Khairin Nova Noliza Bakar NOVALISA NASTHASYA Noverina Alfiany Nursyirwan Effendi, Nursyirwan NURUL AISHAH Olivia Prima Dini Partini Partini Partini Partini Partini Puteri Bulqis Azhari Putri Bulqis Azhari Putri Permathasari Putri Permathasari Putri Putri Putri Riza Chaniago Radhiatul Husna Rahma Diana Safitri Rahmawati Ramadhan Ramadhani, Eza Syafri Ramadhani, Nia Religea Reza Putri Riau, Ninda Permata Ridhatul Ilahi Ridho Pascal Willmar Ridho Saputra, Ridho Rini Elvira Riri Lestari Risma Yulia Rosi Ramayanti Rudiyanto Rudiyanto, Rudiyanto SAIDAH . Sani, Ridha Fadhila Saputri, Ovi Delviyanti SARAH SARAH Sarmada Sarmada Sarmada, Sarmada Selfinia Selfinia SHINTA YULIANA Siska Dwi Kumala Sri Meiyenti Sri Wahyuni Suci Sari Wahyuni SUMINDANG YUZAN Surya Puspita Sari Surya Puspita Sari, Surya Puspita Syauqi, Irfan Tasya Abrari Tessy Oktavia Mukhti Tiara Shofi Edriani Tomi Desra Yuliandi ULLYA IZZATY UMMU BUTSAINATUL EL KHAIR Uqwatul Alma Wisza Uswatul Hasanah Vira Agusta Wikasanti Dwi Rahayu William Huda Willmar, Ridho Pascal WULANDARI, FRILIANDA Yanti Mayasari Ginting Yanuar, Ferra Yaswirman, Yaswirman Yosika Putri Yurinanda, Sherli Zetra, Aidinil Zuardin, Aulia Zul Ahmad Ersyad Zulakmal, Zulakmal