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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

bilp
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Published by Kementerian Perdagangan

ISSN : 19799187 EISSN : 25282751 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.

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Articles 209 Documents

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FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI PERMINTAAN DAN EFEKTIVITAS KEBIJAKAN IMPOR GARAM INDONESIA Ahmad Syariful Jamil; Netti Tinaprilla; . Suharno
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 11 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Garam merupakan komoditas strategis Indonesia yang permintaannya akan terus meningkat seiring dengan peningkatan jumlah penduduk. Adanya ketidakseimbangan antara kebutuhan garam dalam negeri dengan produksi garam domestik mendorong pemerintah untuk melakukan impor garam. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi volume permintaan dan efektivitas kebijakan impor garam Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode regresi data panel dari tahun 2004-2013. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap volume permintaan impor garam Indonesia yaitu: produksi garam domestik, harga garam impor, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) riil Indonesia, PDB riil negara sumber impor dan nilai tukar riil. Produksi garam domestik dan harga garam impor memiliki hubungan yang negatif dengan volume impor, sedangkan variabel lainnya memiliki hubungan yang positif. Temuan lain adalah kebijakan impor yang telah dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah belum sepenuhnya efektif diterapkan pada saat studi ini dilakukan. Rekomendasi kebijakan yang seharusnya dapat diterapkan oleh pemerintah yaitu sinkronisasi data, penguatan pengawasan kebijakan impor, serta intensifikasi dan ekstensifikasi lahan untuk meningkatkan produksi garam domestik. Salt is a strategic commodity which its demand will continue to increase along with the increasing population. The imbalance between the demand and the supply of salt in Indonesia encourages the government to import salt. This study aimed to analyze: the factors that influence the demand of salt import, the effectiveness of salt import and alternative formulation of domestic salt policies. The panel regression model was conducted to address the problem. The study found that the variables that significantly influenced the import demand of salt in Indonesia were domestic salt production, imported salt price, real GDP of Indonesia, real GDP of importing source country and real exchange rate. Domestic salt production and imported salt price had a negative relationship towards import volume, while other variables had a positive relationship. Another finding is that the goverment policy of importing salt has not been fully implemented at the time of this study. The policies that should be further improved by the goverment can be done by synchronizing the data, strenghtening the monitoring import policy, land intensification and extension support in order to produce salt.

ASEAN-CHINA FTA: DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA DAN CINA Sigit Setiawan
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 6 No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Kajian ini merupakan penilaian dampak kesepakatan perdagangan barang ASEAN– China FTA (ACFTA) bagi Indonesia dan Cina. Pendekatan kuantitatif dengan analisis ekonometrik digunakan untuk menilai pengaruh dari ACFTA terhadap kedua pihak dari sisi kontribusi ekspor dan pertumbuhannya. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia belum memanfaatkan secara optimal skema ACFTA sehingga memperoleh manfaat lebih sedikit dibandingkan Cina. Sebagai dampak keikutsertaan dalam ACFTA, ekspor Indonesia ke Cina meningkat sebesar US$ 116 juta per tahun atau 5,83% per tahun. Sementara ekspor Cina ke Indonesia sebesar US$ 5,6 miliar per tahun atau 18,55% per tahun. Untuk itu, Indonesia harus berupaya lebih agresif mengimbangi Cina antara lain melalui kesepakatan bilateral, penguasaan standar nasional Cina, meminimalkan dampak penyesuaian sektoral di lima sektor yang paling terpengaruh dan memanfaatkan secara optimal kebijakan anti dumping. This study acts as an impact assessment on ACFTA Trade in Goods Agreement toward two countries: Indonesia and China. A quantitative approach of econometric analysis is employed to assess the effect of ACFTA to the two countries from two sides: export contribution and its growth. The result shows that Indonesia has enjoyed less benefits than China from the ACFTA preferential tariff. Joining ACFTA Indonesia performed an increase in export to China by US$ 116 million per year or 5.83% increase per annum. Meanwhile, China’s export to Indonesia amounted to US$ 5.6 billion per year or increase 18.55% per annum. It is suggested that Indonesia should work more aggressively to balance the ACFTA benefit such as through bilateral agreement, China national standard acquisition, minimizing sectoral adjustment impact in the five most affected sectors, and optimizing anti-dumping policy.

POTENSI PENGEMBANGAN PASAR JAMU Bagus Wicaksena; Nugroho Ari Subekti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 4 No 2 (2010)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Indonesia is a biodiversity country with nine thousand herbs which have the potential as raw materials for traditional medicine, popularly known as Jamu. Jamu is a home industrial product that can be beneficial for economy development through job creation, large number of enterprises of about 90% are small industries, and multiplier-effect created for added value product from upstream to downstream industry. This research shows that the declaration of “Jamu Brand Indonesia” has significant role to build public awareness to consume in which some consumers are to reduce consumption. The reasons due to its low standard in which jamu with chemicals contents, as well as its less competitiveness to import and pharmaceutical products.Nonetheless, most respondents’s perceptions like jamu is “product of Indonesia”, the efficacious supplement product, natural-content based product, and affordable price product must be comprehensively managed by inter-relationship among producer, the government, and academician to rise its competitiveness to pharmaceutical products. This research recomends stipulated policy and selected strategy should be aimed in order to reach 4 M Mode;: Modern, Mutu Tinggi (High Quality), Murah (Affordable), and Memasyarakat (Community Oriented).

PENGARUH PENANAMAN MODAL ASING TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN ASEAN-6 Ari Mulianta Ginting
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perkembangan perdagangan negara-negara ASEAN-6 dan menganalisis pengaruh aliran FDI terhadap neraca perdagangan. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan analisis deskriptif dan regresi data panel. Studi ini menunjukkan perkembangan neraca perdagangan ASEAN-6 dari tahun 2004-2013 secara total surplus. Berdasarkan hasil analisis regresi data panel, terdapat pengaruh yang positif antara pertumbuhan FDI, GDP dan sektor manufaktur dengan pertumbuhan neraca perdagangan di negara ASEAN-6. Sementara itu terdapat pengaruh negatif antara konsumsi domestik, dan nilai tukar riil terhadap pertumbuhan neraca perdagangan. Hasil analisis regresi data panel mengindikasikan pentingnya variabel pertumbuhan FDI. Hal ini mengimplikasikan perlunya negara-negara ASEAN-6 mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk meningkatkan aliran masuk FDI, seperti perbaikan iklim investasi dan pemberian insentif fiskal. This study sets out to explain the development of trade between ASEAN-6 countries and analyze the influence of FDI flow towards the balance of trade. This study utilizes descriptive analysis approach and panel data regression. This study shows the development of the balance of trade for ASEAN-6 trade from 2004-2013 were all surplus. Based on the panel data regression analysis, there is a positive influences of FDI, GDP, and manufacture sector on the balance of trade of ASEAN-6 countries. On the other hand, there is a negative influences of domestic consumption and real exchange on balance of trade. The analysis result from panel data regression indicates the importance of FDI growth variable. This implies a necessity for ASEAN-6 countries to issue policies that could enhance the inflow of FDI, such as improving investment climate and providing fiscal incentive.

KAJIAN MODEL PENGEMBANGAN PASAR TRADISIONAL Lukman Muslimin; Fibria Indriati; Tjahya Widayanti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 1 No 2 (2007)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Pasar tradisional saat ini menghadapi permasalahan eksternal dan internal yang berpengaruh besar terhadap eksistensi mereka. Dari sisi eksternal pasar tradisional menghadapi kenyataan bahwa kebijakan saat ini tidak cukup mendukung potensi mereka untuk berkembang. Demikian pula persaingan dengan ritel modern yang sangat ekspansif semakin menciptakan kondisi bahwa pasar tradisional semakin ditinggalkan oleh konsumennya. Disisi internal, pasar tradisional menghadapi kenyataan bahwa fisik pasar yang tua tanpa renovasi, sementara manajemen pasar tidak mampu mengatasi perubahan dalam menata pasar tradisional yang bersih, nyaman dana man.Perubahan lingkungan dalam bisnis ritel menuntut pemecahan masalah eksternal dan internal pasar tradisional. Penelitian ini mencoba menganalisa model pengembangan tempo dulu (model tradisional), model yang berjalan saat ini (model transisi) dan model pengembangan masa depan (model integrase) yang dapat memadukan antara model yang telah dan sedang berjalan dengan model yang dibutuhkan di masa depan.Belajar dari pengalaman dalam pembinaan dan model yang dikembangkan di negara lain, maka kajian ini mencoba untuk mengintrodusir model integrase dalam pengembangan pasar tradisional.

PERANAN SEKTOR BAJA DALAM PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA . Hasni; Hiras Manulang
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 5 No 1 (2011)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

this study investigates the role of steel industri on Indonesia’s economy through its linkages with other sectors. It also discusses industrial strategies to develop steel industry and trade. By using ackward and forward linkages methods, drawn from an input-output table, the importance of iron and steel industry for other sectors of the Indonesian national industry is clear. moreover, investment in various sectors, the price of steel, and the exchange rate affect the existence and growth of the steel industry. macroeconomy indicators, such as the consumption of cement, car and retail sales, as well as the performance of the construction sector also give important contributions to the growth of the iron and steel industry sector.

KEBIJAKAN STABILISASI HARGA BERAS Ranni Resnia; Astari Wirastuti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 3 No 1 (2009)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

The rice retail price the research period is relatively stable and in a moderat range. The most unstable rice retail prince happened in Jakarta and Surabaya. The third and fourth week of December and the second week until the end of February are the periods which need special attention from the Government of Indonesia (GOI). According to the research results, there are five variables that influence the price of rice which are: previous rice prince, gasoline price, harvested area, final stock of rice by Bulog, and market operation by Bulog. Rice price is more unstable if the fluctuation of gasoline priceis higher than previous price, the rice stock mobilization from Bulog worst, rice import volume is low, and the market operation policy is more effective if it is supported by the stable gsoline price because this price in stability has the strongest influence towards rice price instability. To minimize the impact of the increasing rice price to the poor, GOI is in the right track by implementing the Safety Net Programme ( Jaringan Pengaman Sosial/JPS programme). Nevertheless, this programme needs further improvement.There are few alternative to improve PP No. 68/2002. Firstly, if the price increases more than 25% to be the indicator for price unstabil then the time reference should be changed from 3 months i9nto 6 months. Secondly, if we want to the price indicator decrease from 25% to 15% if we still want to use the 3 months time reference.

PERKIRAAN DAMPAK ASEAN DAN HONG KONG FREE TRADE AREA (AHKFTA) TERHADAP KINERJA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA Dian Dwi Laksani; Aziza Rahmaniar Salam
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10 No 2 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i2.52

ASEAN dan Hong Kong sepakat untuk membentuk kerjasama kawasan dalam bentuk ASEAN Hong Kong FTA (AHKFTA). Negosiasi perundingan direncanakan akan selesai pada akhir 2016. Indonesia sebagai salah satu negara anggota ASEAN tentunya berpartisipasi dalam rencana pembentukan AHKFTA. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung seberapa besar dampak berlakunya perjanjian perdagangan barang ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA terhadap kinerja perdagangan Indonesia. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) dengan menggunakan Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) versi 8. Kerjasama kawasan ini diharapkan akan menurunkan hambatan perdagangan di semua sektor, khususnya penurunan tarif sebagai representasi penurunan hambatan perdagangan baik di Indonesia maupun di Hong Kong. Penelitian ini melakukan dua simulasi yaitu pemotongan tarif sebesar 50% dan liberalisasi penuh. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia memperoleh manfaat dari liberalisasi penuh perdagangan FTA ASEAN-Hong Kong baik dari kesejahteraan maupun peningkatan GDP, sedangkan peningkatan output hanya terjadi di beberapa sektor yang merupakan komoditi unggulan yaitu vegetable oil, oil seeds, wearing apparel, textile dan electronic equipment Penurunan tarif secara bertahap, pemberlakuan proteksi dan peningkatan daya saing bagi sektor yang berdaya saing rendah merupakan kebijakan yang sangat diperlukan. ASEAN and Hong Kong have agreed to establish bilateral cooperation in the form of the ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA (AHKFTA). The negotiation process is planned to be completed by the end of 2016. Indonesia as one of ASEAN countries will surely participate in AHKFTA. This study aims to investigate the impact of the bilateral trade agreement of the ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA on the Indonesian trade performance. The analytical method applied in this study is Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) using modeling approach of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) version 8. This cooperation is expected to reduce the trade barriers in all sectors, such as reducing tariff in order to decrease the trade barriers between Indonesia and Hong Kong. This study conducted two simulations of tariff cuts 50% and full liberalization. The results indicate that Indonesia gained some benefits from full liberalization of ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA in terms of its welfare and the increase of GDP. The increase of output only occurs in few sectors which are categorized as a primary commodity such as vegetable oil, oil seeds, wearing apparel, textile and electronic equipment. In short, reducing tariff gradually and reinforcing protection and improvement to a sector having low competitiveness are vital to support Indonesia’s trade performance.

ANALISIS FAKTOR DAN PROYEKSI KONSUMSI PANGAN NASIONAL: KASUS PADA KOMODITAS: BERAS, KEDELAI DAN DAGING SAPI Yudha Hadian Nur; Yati Nuryati; Ranni Resnia; Ahmad Sigit Santoso
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 6 No 1 (2012)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.137

Ketahanan pangan merupakan isu yang selalu menjadi perhatian pemerintah Indonesia. Hal ini terbukti dengan tingginya intensitas kebijakan pada pasar bahan pangan pokok. Studi ini bertujuan: 1) mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat konsumsi beras, kedelai dan daging sapi secara nasional; 2) mengestimasi elastisitas permintaan dan penawaran beras, kedelai, dan daging sapi; 3) mengestimasi konsumsi beras, kedelai, dan daging sapi untuk periode 2011 – 2013; 4) merekomendasikan kebijakan terkait produksi dan konsumsi beras, kedelai dan daging sapi. Analisis ini menggunakan metode OLS untuk mengestimasi elastisitas penawaran dan permintaan, serta LA/AIDS model untuk mengestimasi konsumsi komoditi tersebut. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi beras dan kedelai inelastis terhadap harga, sedangkan konsumsi daging sapi elastis terhadap harga daging sapi itu sendiri. Analisis proyeksi konsumsi menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi beras, kedelai dan daging sapi diperkirakan akan meningkat 2,2 %, 0,8%, dan 4% per tahun. Perlu dilakukan upaya-upaya dalam rangka peningkatan produksi, produktivitas dan upaya stabilisasi pasokan dan harga untuk menjamin keterjangkauan konsumsi pangan. Food security has always been an imperative issue for any ruling Indonesian government. Highly-regulated staple foods market indicates their strategic roles in the Indonesian economy. The objectives of this paper are 1) to identify factors affecting the level of national consumption on rice, soybeans and beef; 2) to estimate supply and demand elasticity of rice, soybeans and beef; 3) to project the consumption of rice, soybeans and beef for 20112013; 4) to formulate a policy recommendation to sustain production and consumption of rice, soybeans and beef. This paper uses Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to estimate supply and demand elasticity and Linear Approximation from Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) method to estimate the consumption of respective food commodities. The result shows that consumption of rice and soybeans are inelastic to their own prices while the consumption of beef is elastic to its own price. Consumption projection of the commodities shows that by 2013, consumption of rice, soybeans and beef will increase annually by 2.2%, 0.8% and 4%, respectively. It is necessary to issue the policies to increase production, productivity, and to have the stability of supply and price of respective commodities.

KAJIAN PRAKTEK CARA MENJUAL DALAM BISNIS RITEL DAN STRATEGI PENGAWASANNYA Heny Sukesi
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 4 No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Nowadays, retail business in Indonesia shows a rapid development. This condition drives the retail businessmen to undertake various ways to grab the market by conducting selling practices such as giving discount, prize, voucher and promotion..Current selling practices display an indication of deceit and trickery towards consumers. On the other hand, monitoring efforts for consumer protection have not been optimal. This is due to the lack of regulation and technical guidance monitoring handbook. The aim of this article is to know the condition and selling practices in retail business as well as to formulate a monitoring strategy. Juridical normative.Sociological method are use to analyze selling practice and the problems of business retail. The results shows that several countries are more advanced and established in monitoring selling practices and selling practices in Indonesia use many deceitful selling practices.A detailed technical and operational guideline is required to regulate selling practices of retail business.

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