cover
Article Per Year (5 Year)
All
Home Page
OAI Link
Editorial Team
Contact
Reviewer
Google Scholar
Contact Name
Muhammad Ibnu Ashari
Contact Email
ibnuashari092@gmail.com
Phone
+6285283999981
Journal Mail Official
sospol@untag-smd.ac.id
Editorial Address
Jl. Ir Juanda No. 80 Samarinda (75124) Telp. 0541-744490,7030598; Fax 0541-761244
Location
Kota samarinda,
Kalimantan timur
INDONESIA
PREDIKSI : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan
Published by Universitas 17 Agustus Samarinda
ISSN : 16932439     EISSN : 28288440     DOI : 10.31293/PD
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Social,
Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
Prediksi: Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan is a national and open access journal published by the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences of the University of August 17, 1945 Samarinda. Prediction focuses on the development of the study of the humanities and social sciences. The purpose of our journal is to promote a principled approach to research in the field of social sciences and humanities specifically focusing on Political Science and State Administration and Policy Sciences. Prediksi have a full commitment to the authenticity of published articles and papers. Any authority that submits its articles to Prediksi for publication must be able to prove that the submitted work is an original contribution and has never been published in part or in whole in any other print media. To achieve this commitment, Prediction provides an objective and fair peer review of every article submitted by blind reviewers from other universities.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Sosial - Administrasi Publik
Articles 221 Documents
 19   20   21   22   23 
Implementasi Online Single Submission Risk Based Approach Pada Mal Pelayanan Publik Kota Sukabumi Mochamad Ramzi Ramadhan; Dine Meigawati; Dian Purwanti
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9490

Abstract

Implementasi pelayanan perizinan berbasis digital melalui Online Single Submission Risk Based Approach (OSS-RBA) pada Mal Pelayanan Publik Kota Sukabumi menunjukkan adanya transformasi pelayanan publik menuju sistem yang lebih cepat, terintegrasi, dan transparan. Peningkatan jumlah pelaku usaha yang memiliki Nomor Induk Berusaha (NIB) pada periode 2021–2024 menunjukkan peningkatan akses legalitas usaha bagi masyarakat, khususnya pelaku usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah. Namun, penurunan nilai Survei Kepuasan Masyarakat pada tahun 2025 menunjukkan bahwa implementasi pelayanan digital masih menghadapi berbagai kendala. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis implementasi OSS-RBA pada Mal Pelayanan Publik Kota Sukabumi menggunakan teori implementasi kebijakan George Edward III yang meliputi komunikasi, sumber daya, disposisi, dan struktur birokrasi. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif kualitatif dengan teknik pengumpulan data melalui observasi, wawancara, dan dokumentasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa implementasi OSS-RBA telah memberikan dampak positif terhadap percepatan pelayanan perizinan dan kemudahan akses pelayanan masyarakat. Namun rendahnya literasi digital masyarakat, gangguan sistem teknis, serta koordinasi lintas instansi yang belum optimal masih menjadi kendala dalam pelaksanaan pelayanan.
Transparansi Digital Sebagai Instrumen Penguatan Akuntabilitas Publik Pada Pemerintah Kota Surabaya Tahun 2020-2024 Muhammad Hibbani; Agung Firman Sampurna
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9566

Abstract

Digital transparency has increasingly been recognized as an important instrument for strengthening public accountability in the era of digital government. However, previous studies have shown that the disclosure of information through digital platforms does not automatically lead to improved accountability. This study aims to analyze how digital transparency functions as an instrument for strengthening public accountability in the Surabaya City Government during the 2020–2024 period. A descriptive qualitative approach was employed using content analysis of seven official digital platforms managed by the Surabaya City Government, including the municipal government portal, the Public Information and Documentation Management Officer (PPID) portal, Open Data Surabaya, the Electronic Procurement Service (LPSE), SP4N-LAPOR!, Suroboyo Hub, and other public information service platforms. The analysis was complemented by a comparison of national Electronic-Based Government System (SPBE) index data and external accountability indicators. The findings reveal that all digital transparency indicators were available and functioned substantively rather than merely fulfilling administrative requirements. Digital transparency contributed to strengthening public accountability through accessible information, disclosure of public documents, integrated information systems, and responsive and traceable complaint-handling mechanisms. Throughout the study period, Surabaya consistently achieved SPBE scores above the national average, reaching 4.49 in 2024. The study also identified five supporting factors: committed leadership, system integration, user orientation, institutional capacity, and effective complaint follow-up mechanisms. These findings suggest that digital transparency can strengthen public accountability when supported by adequate institutional capacity and citizen-oriented information governance.
Collaborative Governance in Hydrometeorological Disaster Mitigation in Sukabumi City Salma Normalina; Dian Purwanti; M Rijal Amirulloh
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9577

Abstract

The high frequency of hydrometeorological disasters in Sukabumi City makes collaborative governance among actors a fundamental necessity in disaster mitigation. Although mitigation efforts have been supported by formal regulations and institutional frameworks, the effectiveness of their implementation is strongly influenced by the quality of collaborative governance established among stakeholders. This study aims to analyze collaborative governance in hydrometeorological disaster mitigation in Sukabumi City using the Ansell and Gash (2007) model, encompassing starting conditions, institutional design, facilitative leadership, and collaborative process. A descriptive qualitative approach was employed through in-depth interviews, observation, and document study, involving BPBD, Bappeda, Dinas Sosial, Dinas PUPR, KNPI, and PWI Sukabumi City as informants. The findings indicate that collaborative governance has been established through multi-stakeholder engagement, the formation of the Disaster Risk Reduction Forum (FPRB), and the Disaster-Resilient Village program. However, collaboration remains constrained by the unrenewed legal basis of the FPRB, the absence of standardized cross-institutional operational guidelines, dependence on particular leadership figures, and suboptimal information sharing among stakeholders. This study concludes that collaborative governance in Sukabumi City has been formed but has not yet reached an optimal level, thus requiring strengthened institutional frameworks, regulations, and coordination mechanisms to ensure consistent and sustainable collaboration.
Path Dependence and Constrained Path Creation in a Newcomer Political Organization Party: Insight from Post Democratic Transition Context Muhammad Sakur; Muslem Muslem; Kirwan Kirwan
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9486

Abstract

Stalled progress on institutional change was curtailed by a path-dependence mechanism, such as increasing returns and self-reinforcing coordination effects. Bringing institutional accounts to study the Gema Bangsa Party (GBP), a newcomer political party in Indonesia seeking to challenge established party structures through organisational and programmatic innovation. This article found the path-creation within an endogeneity strategy to change. In this case, though the path dependence mechanism revealed in the case under examination is shaped by the internal legacy of the organisation (e.g., leadership culture, routines, or elite conflicts), it is also strongly shaped by external sources operating through state regulation, the structure of electoral competition, and the norms of the party organisational field. This argument was backed up by interview findings showing that the party, although faced with "old player" hegemony challenges under the internal governing system, also performed small changes made within the party, such as decentralising party power, thereby converging between old and "new" schools. The theoretical implication is the expansion of the path dependence reading from a mere mechanism of "path dependency" that grows endogenously within organisations toward a model that incorporates external path enforcement as a path reinforcer toward limited path-creation.
Tata Kelola Kolaboratif dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat untuk Pengelolaan Ekowisata Berkelanjutan di Air Terjun Sipiso-Piso Tri Sandhya Girsang; Bresca Merina; Pudji Astuti; Sigit Wahyudi; Suljatmiko Suljatmiko
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9481

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis collaborative governance dan pemberdayaan masyarakat dalam pengelolaan ekowisata berkelanjutan di Air Terjun Sipiso-piso, Kabupaten Karo, Sumatera Utara. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan metode studi kasus. Data dikumpulkan melalui wawancara mendalam, observasi, dan dokumentasi yang melibatkan pemerintah daerah, pengelola wisata, masyarakat lokal, pelaku UMKM, serta kelompok komunitas pariwisata. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengelolaan wisata di Air Terjun Sipiso-piso telah melibatkan berbagai pemangku kepentingan, namun tata kelola kolaboratif  belum terlaksana secara terstruktur dan berkelanjutan. Koordinasi antaraktor masih bersifat parsial, dan proses pengambilan keputusan masih didominasi oleh pemerintah. Dari sisi pemberdayaan masyarakat, masyarakat lokal telah memperoleh manfaat ekonomi dari aktivitas pariwisata, tetapi manfaat tersebut masih terbatas pada partisipasi ekonomi dasar dan belum disertai dengan penguatan kapasitas maupun pendampingan yang berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini juga mengidentifikasi kebutuhan konkret terkait peningkatan infrastruktur pendukung, seperti pembangunan jembatan menuju area bawah air terjun, taman bermain anak, fasilitas tempat duduk, serta gazebo. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya penguatan tata kelola kolaboratif dan pemberdayaan masyarakat guna mewujudkan pengelolaan ekowisata yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan.
Pengaruh Reformasi Birokrasi Terhadap Kinerja Pelayanan Kecamatan Sangatta Selatan Kabupaten Kutai Timur Suhardiman Suhardiman; Jamiah Jamiah; Raudah Mahmud; Futum Hubaib
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9658

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of bureaucratic reform on public service performance at the Sangatta Selatan District Office, Kutai Timur Regency. Bureaucratic reform is a strategic government initiative to improve governance through organizational effectiveness, civil servant professionalism, and better public service delivery. This research employed a quantitative approach using a survey method involving 40 respondents selected according to the research criteria. Data were collected through questionnaires and analyzed using simple linear regression with SPSS software. The findings indicate that bureaucratic reform has a positive and significant effect on public service performance. Better implementation of bureaucratic reform is associated with improved quality of services delivered to the community. These results suggest that successful bureaucratic reform contributes to enhancing the effectiveness of public service delivery. Therefore, continuous commitment is required to strengthen organizational governance, improve the competence of public officials, and encourage service innovation to achieve high-quality, accountable, and citizen-oriented public services.Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh reformasi birokrasi terhadap kinerja pelayanan publik pada Kantor Kecamatan Sangatta Selatan, Kabupaten Kutai Timur. Reformasi birokrasi menjadi salah satu upaya pemerintah dalam meningkatkan kualitas tata kelola pemerintahan melalui peningkatan efektivitas organisasi, profesionalisme aparatur, dan kualitas pelayanan kepada masyarakat. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode survei terhadap 40 responden yang dipilih menggunakan teknik sampling sesuai karakteristik penelitian. Data dikumpulkan melalui kuesioner dan dianalisis menggunakan analisis regresi linear sederhana dengan bantuan aplikasi SPSS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa reformasi birokrasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja pelayanan publik. Peningkatan implementasi reformasi birokrasi diikuti dengan meningkatnya kualitas pelayanan yang diberikan kepada masyarakat. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa keberhasilan reformasi birokrasi berkontribusi terhadap peningkatan efektivitas pelayanan publik. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan komitmen berkelanjutan dalam memperkuat tata kelola organisasi, kompetensi aparatur, serta inovasi pelayanan guna mewujudkan pelayanan publik yang berkualitas.
Penerapan Prinsip-Prinsip Good Governance Dalam Proses Penerimaan Calon Pegawai Negeri Sipil Pada Badan Kepegawaian Daerah Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Siti Nurmi Amalia; Jamil Bazarah; Ghufron Ghufron
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9725

Abstract

This research aims to describe the Application of Good Governance Principles in the Process of Selection Candidates for Civil Servants at the Regional Civil Service Agency of East Kalimantan Province as stipulated in Law Number 28 of 1999, especially the principles of accountability, transparency and fairness in the Process of Selection Candidates for Civil Servants. This research was carried out at the Regional Civil Service Agency East Kalimantan Province. In this research, researchers used a qualitative approach to the data obtained in the form of descriptive data. The data analysis technique used is based on the Miles and Huberman model which is called the interactive model, including; data collection, data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion drawing. The results of this research prove the implementation of Good Governance in the Process of Selection Candidates for Civil Servants at the the Regional Civil Service Agency East Kalimantan Province has been going well, carried out in an accountable, transparent and fair. The realization of Good Governance is because the CAT system contributes to Process of Selection Candidates for Civil Servants in a direction that is free from Corruption, Collusion and Nepotism so that everyone can oversee the ongoing selection process through the existing media. Different to using earlier conventional/paper test based where easily damaged, inefficient, and less transparent. In general, almost all Process of Selection Candidates for Civil Servants at the Regional Civil Service Agency East Kalimantan Province are in accordance with existing rules and regulations. Even though it hasn't reached the maximum point, sometimes the portal often experiences interruptions during the reception period due to the large number of accessors at the same time. On the other hand, there are still deficiencies that must be corrected so that the objectives of the CAT system are achieved with maximum results, namely regarding the lack of adequate computers so that the goals are felt to be less than optimal. The implementation of the principle of justice has been going well.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan Penerapan Prinsip-Prinsip Good Governance dalam Proses Penerimaan Calon Pegawai Negeri Sipil (CPNS) pada Badan Kepegawaian Daerah Provinsi Kalimantan Timur sebagaimana diatur dalam Undang-Undang Nomor 28 Tahun 1999, terutama prinsip akuntabilitas, transparansi dan keadilan dalam proses penerimaan CPNS. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di Badan Kepegawaian Daerah (BKD) Provinsi Kalimantan Timur. Dalam penelitian ini, peneliti menggunakan metode pendekatan kualitatif  data dengan memperoleh data deksriptif. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan berpedoman pada model Miles dan Huberman dengan model interaktif, meliputi : Pengumpulan Data, Reduksi Data, Penyajian Data dan Penarikan Kesimpulan.  Hasil penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa Penerapan Good Governance dalam proses penerimaan Calon Pegawai Negeri Sipil di BKD Provinsi Kalimantan Timur sudah berjalan dengan baik dilaksanakan dengan akuntabel, transparan, dan adil. Terwujudnya prinsip transparansi karena sistem CAT berkontribusi dalam proses penerimaan CPNS ke arah yang bebas Korupsi, Kolusi dan Nepotisme sehingga semua orang dapat mengawasi proses seleksi yang sedang berjalan melalui media. Berbeda dengan basis konvensional terdahulu hasil cetakan LJK mudah rusak, tidak efisien, dan kurang transparan. Secara prinakuntabilitas, hampir semua proses penerimaan Calon Pegawai Negeri Sipil pada BKD Provinsi Kalimantan Timur sudah sesuai dengan aturan dan ketentuan yang ada. Walaupun belum mencapai titik yang maksimal terkadang portal mengalami gangguan saat masa penerimaan berlangsung dikarenakan banyak jumlah pengakses. Di sisi lain terdapat kekurangan yang harus diperbaiki agar tujuan dari CAT tercapai yaitu kurangnya komputer yang  memadai sehingga tujuan dirasa kurang maksimal. Penerapan prinsip keadilan sudah berjalan dengan baik.
Analisis Kinerja Bpbd Dalam Menanggulangi Bencana Tanah Longsor Di Kabupaten Sukabumi (Studi Kasus Kecamatan Cikakak Tahun 2025) Fathira Nurul Rabbani; M. Rijal Amirulloh; Dian Purwanti
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9619

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the performance of the Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) of Sukabumi Regency in managing landslide disasters in Cikakak District in 2025. The research employed a qualitative descriptive approach. Data were collected through observation, interviews, and documentation involving BPBD officials, the Cikakak District government, and affected community members. The analysis was based on Agus Dwiyanto’s public organizational performance theory, which includes productivity, service quality, responsiveness, responsibility, and accountability. The findings indicate that the overall performance of BPBD Sukabumi Regency was satisfactory. BPBD successfully implemented disaster mitigation programs, emergency response activities, victim evacuation, and aid distribution effectively. The quality of services was considered adequate, disaster responses were carried out promptly through effective coordination, operational activities were conducted in accordance with established procedures, and accountability was maintained through transparent reporting mechanisms. However, improvements are still needed in disaster mitigation capacity, early warning systems, and community preparedness to reduce the risks and impacts of future landslide disasters in the area.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kinerja Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah (BPBD) Kabupaten Sukabumi dalam menanggulangi bencana tanah longsor di Kecamatan Cikakak tahun 2025. Penelitian menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan deskriptif. Data dikumpulkan melalui observasi, wawancara, dan dokumentasi dengan informan yang terdiri atas pihak BPBD, pemerintah Kecamatan Cikakak, dan masyarakat terdampak bencana. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan teori kinerja organisasi publik Agus Dwiyanto yang meliputi produktivitas, kualitas pelayanan, responsivitas, responsibilitas, dan akuntabilitas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kinerja BPBD Kabupaten Sukabumi secara umum telah berjalan baik. BPBD mampu melaksanakan program mitigasi, penanganan bencana, evakuasi korban, serta penyaluran bantuan secara efektif. Kualitas pelayanan dinilai memadai, respons terhadap kejadian bencana berlangsung cepat melalui koordinasi yang baik, pelaksanaan tugas dilakukan sesuai prosedur, dan pertanggungjawaban kegiatan dilaksanakan secara transparan. Meskipun demikian, BPBD masih perlu meningkatkan kapasitas mitigasi, sistem peringatan dini, serta kesiapsiagaan masyarakat guna mengurangi risiko dan dampak bencana tanah longsor di masa mendatang.
Implementasi Kebijakan Pemerintah dalam Program Makan Bergizi Gratis di SD Negeri 008 Kota Samarinda Alivia Debi Yusnanda; Maskan Maskan; M. Ibnu Ashari. R; Akbar Aswin
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9735

Abstract

This study aims to describe the implementation of government policies and analyze the supporting and inhibiting factors in the Free Nutritious Meal Program at SD Negeri 008 in Samarinda City. This study employs a descriptive qualitative research design. Data collection was conducted through observation, interviews, and documentation. The data were then analyzed using descriptive qualitative data analysis techniques, including data sorting, data presentation, and drawing conclusions from the data. The focus of this study is the implementation of government policy in the Free Nutritious Meal Program at SD Negeri 008 in Samarinda City, as determined by the following indicators: communication, resources, disposition, and bureaucratic structure, as well as analyzing the supporting and hindering factors in its implementation. The research findings indicate that the implementation of government policy in the Free Nutritious Meals Program at SD Negeri 008 in Samarinda can be assessed based on the research focus. Communication efforts have been carried out effectively, but consistency still needs to be improved as challenges continue to arise. The available resources to support the program’s implementation are sufficient, and the staff have demonstrated a positive attitude; as evidenced by the high commitment and full sense of responsibility demonstrated by the implementers toward the program. The bureaucratic structure has functioned effectively, supported by clear and simple Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that are strictly adhered to by the organizers. Supporting factors include good cooperation and coordination; the hindering factors observed were delays in distribution and a decline in food quality during the initial stages. However, regarding these hindering factors, it is evident that all challenges have been optimally addressed by the implementers; nevertheless, there remains a need to enhance the performance of the implementers in accordance with their primary duties and functions.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan Implementasi kebijakan Pemerintah dan menganalisis Faktor-faktor Pendukung dan Penghambat dalam Program Makan Bergizi Gratis di SD Negeri 008 Kota Samarinda. Jenis penelitian ini menggunakan Kualitatif Deskriptif. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan observasi, wawancara dan dokumentasi. Data tersebut kemudian di analisis dengan menggunakan teknik analisis data kualitatif deskriptif, memilah data, menyajikan data dan menarik kesimpulan pada data. Adapun fokus penelitian ini adalah Implementasi Kebijakan Pemerintah dalam Program Makan Bergizi Gratis di SD Negeri 008 Kota Samarinda yang ditetapkan dengan indikator: Komunikasi, Sumber Daya, Disposisi, Struktur Birokorasi serta menganalisis faktor Pendukung dan Penghambat dalam pelaksanaannya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Implementasi Kebijakan Pemerintah dalam Program Makan Bergizi Gratis di SD Negeri 008 Kota Samarinda dapat dilihat dari fokus penelitian yang ada, Komunikasi yang dilaksanakan telah berjalan dengan baik tetapi masih perlu untuk lebih meningkatkan konsistensi karena masih dirasakan terdapat adanya kendala yang terjadi, Sumber Daya yang ada dalam mendukung pelaksanaan program ini sudah cukup memadai, Disposisi yang telah menunjukkan sikap positif, hal ini ditandai dengan adanya komitmen yang tinggi dan tanggung jawab yang penuh terhadap program yang diberikan oleh para pelaksana, Struktur Birokrasi yang telah berjalan secara efekif dengan adanya SOP yang jelas dan sederhana serta dipatuhinya SOP oleh para penyelenggara. Faktor Pendukung yang ditunjukkan dengan adanya kerja sama dan koordinasi yang baik, Faktor Penghambat yang terjadi yaitu adanya keterlambatan distribusi dan penururnan kualitas makanan pada tahap awal.Tetapi dari hal Faktor Penghambat yang telah menunjukkan bahwa segala kendala sudah diatasi secara optimal oleh para pelaksana tetapi masih perlunya untuk meningkatkan kinerja para pelaksana sesuai dengan tugas pokok dan fungsinya.
Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Kebijakan Ekspor Karet Indonesia Pada 8 Negara Tujuan Utama Dengan Inflasi Sebagai Variabel Intervening Febryanti Angkat; Khairani Alawiyah Matondang; Bukit Buchori Siagian
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9584

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study examines how exchange rate and economic growth affect Indonesia's rubber export policy toward eight primary destination countries across the 2012-2024 period, treating inflation as an intervening variable. Drawing on panel data regression through the Fixed Effect Model and Random Effect Model, the findings reveal that exchange rate exerts a negative and significant influence on both inflation and rubber exports, whereas economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on inflation and rubber exports alike. Inflation, in turn, negatively and significantly affects rubber exports, and the Sobel tests confirm that inflation serves as a significant mediator in the relationship between exchange rate, economic growth, and rubber exports. These results suggest that exchange rate and economic growth shape Indonesia's rubber export performance both directly and indirectly, with the latter pathway operating through the inflation transmission mechanism in the destination countries.ABSTRAKPenelitian ini mengkaji bagaimana nilai tukar dan pertumbuhan ekonomi memengaruhi kebijakan ekspor karet Indonesia ke delapan negara tujuan utama sepanjang periode 2012-2024, dengan inflasi diperlakukan sebagai variabel intervening. Dengan memanfaatkan regresi data panel melalui Fixed Effect Model dan Random Effect Model, temuan penelitian mengungkapkan bahwa nilai tukar memberikan pengaruh negatif dan signifikan baik terhadap inflasi maupun ekspor karet, sementara pertumbuhan ekonomi memberikan pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kedua variabel tersebut. Inflasi sendiri terbukti berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor karet, dan uji Sobel mengonfirmasi bahwa inflasi berperan sebagai mediator yang signifikan dalam hubungan antara nilai tukar, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan ekspor karet. Hasil ini mengindikasikan bahwa nilai tukar dan pertumbuhan ekonomi membentuk kinerja ekspor karet Indonesia baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung, di mana jalur tidak langsung tersebut berlangsung melalui mekanisme transmisi inflasi di negara-negara tujuan.

Page 22 of 23 | Total Record : 221

 19   20   21   22   23 

Filter by Year

2020 2026


Reset
Filter By Issues
All Issue Vol 25, No 2 (2026) Vol 25, No 1 (2026) Vol 24, No 3 (2025) Vol 24, No 2 (2025) Vol 24, No 1 (2025) Vol 23, No 3 (2024) Vol 23, No 2 (2024) Vol 23, No 1 (2024) Vol 22, No 3 (2023) Vol 22, No 2 (2023) Vol 22, No 1 (2023) Vol 21, No 3 (2022) Vol 21, No 2 (2022) Vol 21, No 1 (2022) Vol 20, No 3 (2021) Vol 20, No 2 (2021) Vol 20, No 1 (2021) Vol 19, No 3 (2020) Vol 19, No 2 (2020) Vol 19, No 1 (2020) More Issue