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Dani, Andrea Tri Rian
Universitas Mulawarman
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Journal : M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika

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Comparative Analysis Of Neural Network Model Selection And Data Transformation For Rainfall Forecasting Permata, Regita Putri; Dani, Andrea Tri Rian
Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 10 No. 3 (2025): Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Wiralodra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31943/mathline.v10i3.763

Abstract

The selection of input models in neural networks significantly influences predictive accuracy in time series forecasting. This study evaluates different input models for neural networks in rainfall prediction using data from the Wonorejo Reservoir, Surabaya. The neural network inputs are determined based on significant lags identified through the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) and ARIMA models. Simulation results indicate that the best Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) model utilizes PACF-derived input lags and is trained using the Rprop+ algorithm with a logistic activation function. Meanwhile, the optimal Deep Learning Neural Network (DLNN) model employs the Rprop- algorithm with a logistic activation function. The best-performing model for rainfall forecasting, based on the lowest Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP), is the FFNN model with an (8,4,1) architecture. To further refine the model, we applied a stepwise selection process to eliminate non-significant lag inputs. However, results show that this optimization had no substantial impact, as RMSEP increased after the stepwise procedure.
Co-Authors A'yun, Qonita Qurrota Adhitya Ronnie Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie AINURROCHMAH, ALIFTA Alifta Ainurrochmah Alifta Ainurrochmah Anisar, Anggi Putri AVIANTHOLIB, IGAR CALVERIA Avrilia, Khairunnisa Budi Cahyono Budi, Ennesya Estya Candra, Yossy Chandra, Yossy Dandito Laa Ull Darnah Darnah, Darnah Dimas Nugroho Dwi Seputro Fachrian Bimantoro Putra Fadlirhohim, Rizki Dwi Fauziyah, Meirinda Fidia Deny Tisna Amijaya Goenjatoro, Rito Gunardi Gunardi Hardina Sandariria Hinadang, Elen A. I Gusti Bagus Ngurah Diksa I Nyoman Budiantara I Nyoman Budiantara Ibaad, Muhammad Irsadul indarsih, Indarsih Koirudin, Hadi Kosasih, Raditya Arya Krisna Rendi Awalludin Ludia Ni'matuzzahroh Ludia Ni’matuzzahroh M. Fathurahman M. Yogi Riyantama Isjoni Mahmuda, Siti Mar’ah, Zakiyah Meirinda Fauziyah Melisa Arumsari Memi Nor Hayati Mislan Muawanah, Chusnul Muhammad Aldani Zen Mulyadi, Taqriri Kamal Nanda Arista Rizki NARITA YURI ADRIANINGSIH Ni'matuzzahroh, Ludia Nilam Novita Sari Novidianto, Raditya Nurul Istiqomah Oroh, Chiko Zet Puspitasari, Melda Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro Qonita Qurrota A'yun Raditya Arya Kosasih Raditya Novidianto Rahayu, Joana K. Rahmah, Syifa M. Rahmah, Syifa Mutia Rahmania Rahmania Ramadhani, Bagus D. Regita Putri Permata Rifdatun Ni’mah Riry Sriningsih Rito Goejantoro, Rito Sifriyani, Sifriyani Siringoringo, Meiliyani Sitinjak, Jesselin Paskalis Solikhah, Arifatus Solikhatun, Solikhatun Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wigantono Surya Prangga Suyitno Suyitno Syaripuddin Syaripuddin Tanur, Erwin Tutik Handayani, Tutik Uha Isnaini Vita Ratnasari Wahyujati, Mohamad Fahruli Watika, Noor Hikmah Zen, Muhammad Aldani