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Dani, Andrea Tri Rian
Universitas Mulawarman
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Poverty Modeling in East Nusa Tenggara Using Fourier Nonparametric Regression with Cosine–Sine Comparison and Hypothesis Testing Narita Yuri Adrianingsih; Andrea Tri Rian Dani; I Nyoman Budiantara; Vita Ratnasari; Yossy Candra; Bintang A. Banewang; Leti S. Gaimau
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol4-iss2/493

Abstract

Poverty is a complex multidimensional issue and remains a major development challenge in Indonesia, particularly in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), which consistently records one of the highest poverty rates nationally. Conventional parametric approaches, such as linear regression, are often inadequate to capture the nonlinear and complex relationships between socioeconomic factors and poverty levels. Therefore, this study proposes a nonparametric regression approach based on Fourier series to model poverty in NTT. The novelty of this research lies in the systematic comparison between cosine-based and sine-based Fourier components within a nonparametric regression framework, combined with inferential statistical testing to identify significant determinants of poverty. The study uses cross-sectional data from 22 districts/cities in NTT for the year 2025. Model estimation is conducted using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, while the optimal oscillation parameter is determined using Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV). Model performance is evaluated using MSE, RMSE, MAPE, and coefficient of determination (R²). The results show that the cosine-based Fourier model with three oscillations outperforms the sine-based model, achieving MSE of 1.903, RMSE of 1.379, MAPE of 5.817%, and R² of 95.146%. Hypothesis testing indicates that all predictor variables significantly influence poverty levels both simultaneously and partially. These findings demonstrate that the Fourier nonparametric regression approach is highly effective in capturing complex and fluctuating poverty patterns, and it provides a more accurate and interpretable model for supporting targeted poverty alleviation policies.
Co-Authors A'yun, Qonita Qurrota Adhitya Ronnie Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie AINURROCHMAH, ALIFTA Alifta Ainurrochmah Alifta Ainurrochmah Anisar, Anggi Putri AVIANTHOLIB, IGAR CALVERIA Avrilia, Khairunnisa Bintang A. Banewang Budi Cahyono Budi, Ennesya Estya Candra, Yossy Chandra, Yossy Dandito Laa Ull Darnah Darnah, Darnah Devita Dwi Putri Dimas Nugroho Dwi Seputro Fachrian Bimantoro Putra Fadlirhohim, Rizki Dwi Fauziyah, Meirinda Fidia Deny Tisna Amijaya Goenjatoro, Rito Hardina Sandariria Hinadang, Elen A. I Gusti Bagus Ngurah Diksa I Nyoman Budiantara I Nyoman Budiantara Ibaad, Muhammad Irsadul indarsih, Indarsih Koirudin, Hadi Kosasih, Raditya Arya Krisna Rendi Awalludin Leti S. Gaimau Ludia Ni'matuzzahroh Ludia Ni’matuzzahroh M. Fathurahman M. Yogi Riyantama Isjoni Mahmuda, Siti Mar’ah, Zakiyah Meirinda Fauziyah Melisa Arumsari Memi Nor Hayati Mislan Muawanah, Chusnul Muhammad Aldani Zen Mulyadi, Taqriri Kamal Nanda Arista Rizki NARITA YURI ADRIANINGSIH Nazmi Soraya Ni'matuzzahroh, Ludia Nilam Novita Sari Novidianto, Raditya Nurul Istiqomah Oroh, Chiko Zet Puspitasari, Melda Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro Qonita Qurrota A'yun Raditya Arya Kosasih Raditya Novidianto Rahayu, Joana K. Rahmah, Syifa M. Rahmah, Syifa Mutia Rahmania Rahmania Ramadhani, Bagus D. Regita Putri Permata Rifdatun Ni’mah Riry Sriningsih Rito Goejantoro, Rito Sifriyani, Sifriyani Siringoringo, Meiliyani Siswahyudianto Sitinjak, Jesselin Paskalis Solikhah, Arifatus Solikhatun, Solikhatun Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wigantono Sukamto, Ika Sumiyarsi Suprianto, Esmar Surya Prangga Suyitno Suyitno Syaripuddin Syaripuddin Tanur, Erwin Tutik Handayani, Tutik Uha Isnaini Vita Ratnasari Wahyujati, Mohamad Fahruli Watika, Noor Hikmah Yossy Candra Yossy Candra Zen, Muhammad Aldani