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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Electronics and Instrumentation Systems IJCCS (Indonesian Journal of Computing and Cybernetics Systems) Jurnal Buana Informatika Sinkron : Jurnal dan Penelitian Teknik Informatika JMM (Jurnal Masyarakat Mandiri) SINTECH (Science and Information Technology) Journal Jurnal Informatika Universitas Pamulang Jurnal Sisfokom (Sistem Informasi dan Komputer) Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI) J-SAKTI (Jurnal Sains Komputer dan Informatika) JIPI (Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Informatika) Jurnal Mantik JPKMI (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Indonesia) BERNAS: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Data Mining dan Sistem Informasi International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology J-SAKTI (Jurnal Sains Komputer dan Informatika) Jurnal Multidisiplin Madani (MUDIMA) Jurnal WIDYA LAKSMI (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat) Jurnal Krisnadana Jurnal Krisnadana Journal of Social Work and Empowerment Jurnal Media Informasi Teknologi Galaksi
Ida Bagus Gede Sarasvananda
Institut Bisnis Dan Teknologi Indonesia
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Towards Adaptive Learning: A Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Approach to Student Skill Prediction Bayesian Knowledge Tracing for Modeling Daily Living Skills in Children with ASD Dharsika, I Gde Eka; Setiawan, I Made Dedy; Sarasvananda, Ida Bagus Gede
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Article Research January 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v10i1.15605

Abstract

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) presents challenges in mastering Activities of Daily Living (ADLs), which are essential for independence. This study applies Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) to model the mastery of five ADL skills—eating, dressing, toothbrushing, combing, and bathing—using data from 27 learners (1,350 responses). BKT parameters, including initial mastery, learning transition, guessing, and slipping, were used to estimate individual learning trajectories. Results showed that eating was the easiest skill (predicted mastery = 0.78), while bathing and combing were the most difficult (<0.55). The model achieved an overall accuracy of 0.62, with strong detection of actual mastery (TP = 722) but a high false-positive rate (FP = 429), indicating sensitivity to the guessing parameter. Learning curves and heatmaps revealed substantial inter-student variability. A comparative evaluation with the Performance Factors Analysis (PFA) model showed that BKT achieved higher overall predictive accuracy (BKT = 0.6356; PFA = 0.5917), while PFA demonstrated a higher AUC (0.6747) but exhibited strong positive-class bias in classification. These findings demonstrate the usefulness of BKT in modeling ADL development and highlight its potential for adaptive learning systems that support personalized interventions for ASD learners.
Co-Authors Alexander Gebo Andika, I Gede Anny Kartika Sari Choirul Anwar Cokorda Pramartha Dewi, Yesi Ratna Dewi, Yunita Dharsika, I Gede Eka Donaya Pasha Eka Dharsika, I Gde Erlina Putri, Ni Putu Mita I Dewa Putu Gede Wiyata Putra I Dewa Putu Gede Wiyata Putra I Gede Adnyana I Gede Iwan Sudipa I Gusti Made Ngurah Desnanjaya I Kadek Ari Arya Maheswara I Komang Arya Ganda Wiguna I Komang Arya Ganda Wiguna I MADE DEDY SETIAWAN . I Made Satria Bimantara I Nyoman Arnawan, I Nyoman I Nyoman Tri Anindia Putra I Putu Edi Setiawan I Putu Eka Giri Gunawan I Putu Hendika Permana I Wayan Supriana Ida Bagus Ary Indra Iswara Ida Bagus Ary Indra Iswara Made Suci Ariantini Maria Osmunda Eawea Monny Maryani, Putu Dian Ni Made Mila Rosa Desmayani, Ni Made Mila Rosa Putu Gede Surya Cipta Nugraha Putu Praba Santika Putu Wirayudi Aditama Putu Wirayudi Aditama Radhitya, Made Leo Rahayu G., Ni Luh Wiwik Sri Retantyo Wardoyo Sandika, I Kadek Budi Saputra, I Wayan Kelvin Widana Saraswati, Ni Wayan Sumartini Sawitri, Nyoman Sintya Selivan, Diana Styawati Styawati Styawati Styawati Styawati, Styawati Sulistiawati, Ni Kadek Ayu Sunarya, I Wayan Suryadana, Kadek Thalib, Emmy Febriani Welda Wiguna, I Komang Arya Ganda Winda Yulita