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PERFORMA MODEL WRF ASIMILASI DATA SATELIT CUACA PADA KEJADIAN CURAH HUJAN LEBAT DI JABODETABEK Ismail, Prayoga; Silitonga, Andreas Kurniawan; Fadlan, Ahmad
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol 19, No 2 (2018): December 2018
Publisher : BPPT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (619.813 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jstmc.v19i2.3141

Abstract

Prediksi cuaca numerik saat ini terus dikembangkan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan prakiraan curah hujan beresolusi tinggi. Namun, prediksi cuaca numerik di Indonesia masih bermasalah dalam hal akurasi model numerik. Beberapa penelitian sebelumnya menunjukkan bahwa akurasi pemodelan sangat dipengaruhi oleh error pada data kondisi inisial. Penelitian ini mengkaji upaya untuk memperbaiki data inisial model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) dengan menggunakan prosedur asimilasi radiance satelit untuk prakiraan curah hujan di wilayah Jabodetabek untuk empat studi kasus pada musim yang berbeda selama 2017. Enam eksperimen model dijalankan dengan data satelit AMSUA, MHS, HIRS4, dan ATMS menggunakan WRFDA 3DVar. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan analisis pengaruh asimilasi terhadap data inisial model, analisis skill model berdasarkan diagram taylor, kriteria curah hujan, curah hujan spasial, dan akumulasi curah hujan time series dibandingkan dengan data observasi curah hujan BMKG dan data curah hujan GSMaP. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa eksperimen DA AMSUA, MHS, dan MIX dapat memodifikasi data kondisi inisial model dengan baik. Sementara itu, hasil verifikasi diagram taylor mengungkapkan bahwa eksperimen DA-MHS memiliki performa terbaik dibandingkan dengan asimilasi lainnya, sedangkan verifikasi prediksi curah hujan berdasarkan kriteria hujan, verifikasi spasial, dan akumulasi curah hujan time series pada eksperimen DA-AMSUA adalah yang terbaik dengan skill model yang cukup konsisten di wilayah Jabodetabek pada berbagai musim.
PENGARUH ASIMILASI DATA GPS RADIO OCCULTATION REFRACTIVITY DENGAN WRF 3DVAR DALAM PREDIKSI KEJADIAN HUJAN LEBAT DI WILAYAH SAMARINDA Faizal Wempy; Fadlan, Ahmad
Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Vol 6 No 3 (2019): Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Publisher : Unit Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36754/jmkg.v6i3.143

Abstract

There were two cases of heavy rainfall that occurred at Samarinda on 27 and 28 November 2016 with the accumulation of rainfall recorded at Temindung-Samarinda Meteorological Station were 73,7 mm/day and 72,6 mm/day. One of the ways to improve the prediction accuracy level given by performing the data assimilation to improve the initial conditions of the model. This research used Final Analysis (FNL) data, Global Forecast System (GFS) data, synoptic observation data, and Global Positioning System Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) Refractivity, where the GPS data will be assimilated into the WRF-ARW through WRF 3DVAR technique. Besides that, this research is also applying the spin-up model procedure with warm start mode which is accompanied by a rapid update cycle forecast in order to know the performance of WRF-ARW in predicting heavy rainfall phenomenon. The result of this research shows that applying the data assimilation procedure of the GPS-RO Refractivity which goes into WRF-ARW model can increase the predictions accurate level of heavy rainfall phenomenon which is occurred at that time. As for the high and low of the prediction, the result is affected by the length of time span prediction of the rain phenomenon. The length of time span prediction of the rain phenomenon, the better the rain prediction result generated by using WRF-ARW model.
Perbandingan Minat Belajar menggunakan Pembelajaran Model Diskusi dengan Model Pengajaran Langsung Peserta Didik Kelas XI SMA Negeri 1 Batangtoru Fadlan, Ahmad
Jurnal Humaniora Teknologi Vol. 6 No. 1 (2020): Jurnal Humaniora Teknologi
Publisher : P3M Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34128/jht.v6i1.75

Abstract

Abstrak Adapun rumusan masalah dalam penelitian ini adalah “Apakah ada perbandingan minat belajar menggunakan pembelajaran model diskusi kelas dengan model pengajaran langsung peserta didik kelas XI SMA Negeri 1 Batangtoru?” Sedangkan tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui perbandingan minat belajar menggunakan pembelajaran model diskusi kelas dengan model pengajaran langsung peserta didik kelas XI SMA Negeri 1 Batangtoru. Dalam penelitian ini penulis menggunakan metode penelitian secara komparatif, yaitu penelitian yang bersifat membandingkan variabel yang satu dengan variabel yang lain terhadap objek yang berbeda. Penulis mengumpulkan data dengan melakukan penyebaran angket dan tes, kemudian untuk melihat apakah ada perbandingan minat belajar menggunakan pembelajaran model diskusi kelas dengan model pengajaran langsung peserta didik kelas XI SMA Negeri 1 Batangtoru, penulis menggunakan rumus t-test polled varians. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian yang penulis lakukan melalui rumus polled varians diperoleh harga thitung = 12,67 dengan melihat daftar ttabel dengan jumlah sampel 75 kemudian digunakan derajat kebebasan (dk) = n1 + n2 2 dan taraf kesalahan 5% adalah 2,000. Sesuai dengan ketentuan jika thitung lebih besar (>) dari ttabel dengan kata lain (12,67> 2,000) maka hipotesis alternatif Ha dapat diterima. Kata kunci : minat belajar, pembelajaran model diskusi, pengajaran langsung Abstract The problem formulation in this research was “Is there a comparison of learning interest by using class discussion learning with direct teaching learning on grade XI students at SMA Negeri 1 Batangtoru?”. While the aim of this research was to know the comparison of learning interest by using class discussion learning with direct teaching learning on grade XI students at SMA Negeri 1 Batangtoru. In this research, the writer used research method comparatively, it was the research which compared one variable to other on different objects. The writer collected the data by giving questionairesand test, then to know whether there was a comparison of learning interest by using class discussion learning with direct teaching learning on grade XI students at SMA Negeri 1 Batangtoru, the writer used T-Test Polled Varians formula. Based on the research result , the t-test = 12,67 by checking to t-table list with the sample was 75 students then it was used freedom degree = n1 + n2 2 and wrongness rate 5% was 2,000. Based on the statement, if t-test was higher than t-table (12,67> 2,000) then the alternative hypothesis (Ha) was accepted. Keywords : learning interest, discussion learning model, direct teaching model
The Effect of Production and Capital on the Farmers’ Welfare in Klambir V Kebun Village, North Sumatra Fadlan, Ahmad; P. Lubis, Rizal; Handoko Tarigan, Muhammad
Jurnal Masyarakat Maritim Vol 8 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Masyarakat Maritim
Publisher : Program Studi Sosiologi Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik Universitas Maritim Raja Ali Haji

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31629/jmm.v8i1.6893

Abstract

The analysis of the welfare of rice farming in Klambir V Kebun Village, Hamparan Perak District, Deli Serdang Regency aims to analyze the factors that affect farm welfare, namely land area, production, price, education, labor, capital, government policy and technology. The population of the research were 470 rice farmers, while tha sample were 216 rice farmers as the respondents The data were processed using factor test analysis and then analyzed using multiple linear regression. Based on the data obtained from the distribution of questionnaires, the data were processed using SPSS software Version 23.0 for Windows. Based on the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), it was found that from the 8 variables analyzed with the factor analysis model consisted of 2 factors, namely production factors and capital factors. Based on the results of multiple linear regression analysis, it was found that production and capital have a significant effect on the welfare of farming in Klambir V Kebun Village, Hamparan Perak District, Deli Serdang Regency. Farmers need guidance from the public or private sectors regarding marketing their harvested crops and utilizing technology to enhance both the quantity and quality of their production. To become independent, farmers should also establish farmer groups or cooperatives that can assist in getting financing loans, marketing their produce, and sharing information amongst farmers.
ANALISIS FAKTOR – FAKTOR PRODUKSI TERHADAP PENDAPATAN PENGUSAHA TAPE DI KELURAHAN LADANG BAMBU KECAMATAN MEDAN TUNTUNGAN Tarigan, Vani Eorita; Fadlan, Ahmad
Referensi : Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen dan Akuntansi Vol 12, No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Unitri Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33366/ref.v12i1.5689

Abstract

This research was conducted with the aim of analyzing production factors on the income of tape entrepreneurs in Ladang Bambu Village, Medan Tuntungan District. Using a quantitative approach method with a sample size of 60 respondents determined by Accidental Sampling. Data collected using the questionnaire method was then analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis in SPSS version 25.00. The results of this research show that partially labor and marketing influence the income of tape entrepreneurs in Ladang Bambu Village, Medan Tuntungan District. Meanwhile, business capital and location have no effect on the income of tape entrepreneurs in Ladang Bambu Village, Medan Tuntungan District. Furthermore, it simultaneously shows that labor, business capital, location and marketing together influence the income of tape entrepreneurs in Ladang Bambu Village, Medan Tuntungan District.
The Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policy in Stabilizing the Indonesian Rupiah Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic Suhendi, Suhendi; Fadlan, Ahmad; Karo, Ruth Silvania Br
Proceeding International Conference on Malay Identity The 2nd International Seminar on Language, Literature, Education, Arts and Culture
Publisher : Jurusan Sejarah, Seni, dan Arkeologi, FKIP, Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Macroprudential policy is an advanced monetary policy made by the government through Bank Indonesia that equally maintains the stability of the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia. Macroprudential policy is believed to be able to maintain financial stability in Indonesia. The phenomenon seen is based on LTV (Loan To Value), LDR (Loan to Deposit Ratio), CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio), and NPL (Non Performing Loan). Meanwhile, supporting variables outside macroprudential policies such as Inflation, Gross Domestic Product, and Trade Balance are supporting variables for rupiah exchange rate stability in Indonesia. This research on the Indonesian state is based on the phenomenon before and after covid-19, to find out whether there is an impact on the rupiah exchange rate. This type of research is quantitative and the data used in this study are secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia, the data used are time series, namely from 2002 to 2021, the method used in this study is the Vector Autogression (VAR) method and the Differential Test. The results showed that macroprudential policy had an effect on the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia and there were differences in the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate both before covid-19 and during covid-19 in Indonesia. The suggestion concluded by the author is the need for banks to record and collect bad debts in Indonesia so that financial performance through Bank of Indonesia is optimal.
Speech Acts in E-Commerce Customer Service: A Library Research on Pragmatic Strategies in Digital Communication Fitriani, Eka Surya; Rosida, Sisi; Fadlan, Ahmad; Sylvana, Lestari
Proceeding International Conference on Malay Identity The 2nd International Seminar on Language, Literature, Education, Arts and Culture
Publisher : Jurusan Sejarah, Seni, dan Arkeologi, FKIP, Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This study investigates the use of speech acts in customer service conversations on Shopee, focusing on problem resolution and consumer complaints. Through a library research approach, the study examines existing literature on pragmatics and speech act theory, analyzing how directives, commissives, and expressives are used in managing customer service interactions in ecommerce platform such as Shopee, Lazada and Tokopedia. By reviewing relevant studies on speech acts in digital communication and customer service contexts, this research identifies common patterns and strategies employed by customer service representatives to address complaints and ensure customer satisfaction. The findings provide theoretical insights into the role of speech acts type such as expressive, directive and representative in e-commerce communication, contributing to a deeper understanding of effective customer service practices in shopping online platforms.
The Ability of Union Policy in Achieving Price Stability After Covid-19 in 6 Countries with the Highest Inflation Fadlan, Ahmad; Rusiadi, Rusiadi; Sepbrina, Kiky
Proceeding International Conference on Malay Identity The 2nd International Seminar on Language, Literature, Education, Arts and Culture
Publisher : Jurusan Sejarah, Seni, dan Arkeologi, FKIP, Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

During COVID-19 pandemic, most people have minimized activities outside the home including the government's recommendation to stay at home to break the chain of COVID-19 spread. If these phenomena continue, such as the volume of supply, people's purchasing power, as well as the inflation rate which continues to be on a downward trend, it is feared that it can make economic growth negative and have a negative impact on all sectors which will lead the economy towards recession and worse to the point of a global economic crisis. This research approach is associative / quantitative research. In supporting quantitative analysis, the Model, VAR, ARDL Panel and Differential Test are used where this model can explain the reciprocal relationship in the long-term economic variables used as endogenous variables. The data used in this study are secondary data derived from the World Bank (https://data.worldbank.org/) and https://www.ceicdata.com/id. In the panel interest rates are able to be a leading indicator of inflation and exchange rates in Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Argentina, Iran and Indonesia, then the 6 Countries with the Highest Inflation should keep interest rates will remain stable. During the COVID-19 pandemic there are significant differences in inflation and exchange rates in the 6 Countries with the Highest Inflation before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEMISKINAN DI KOTA MEDAN Ramadhan, Faisal; Fadlan, Ahmad
Jurnal Edueco Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Desember
Publisher : Prodi Pendidikan Ekonomi Universitas Balikpapan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36277/edueco.v7i2.234

Abstract

Analysis of Factors Affecting Poverty in Medan City. The problems in this study are the Human Development Index, Economic Growth, Unemployment and Education are factors that affect poverty in Medan City. This study aims to analyze the factors that affect Poverty in Medan City. The data processed using factor test analysis then using multiple linear regression. Data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) were processed using SPSS Software Version 22.0 For Windows. The results of the study showed that of the 4 variables analyzed with the multiple linear regression analysis model, it showed that the Human Development Index, Economic Growth, and Unemployment had a significant effect on Poverty in Medan City.
Study of High Waves and Sea Level during Marian Tropical Cyclone in Southern Sea of Java Fadlan, Ahmad; Sainsfikri, Rijal
Jurnal Perikanan dan Kelautan Vol. 28 No. 2 (2023): June
Publisher : Faculty of Fisheries and Marine, Universitas Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31258/

Abstract

The southern coastal area of Java is an area directly bordering the Indian Ocean. This area often experiences high waves, which have an impact on community activities in coastal areas. High waves on the south coast of Java generally occur due to the impact of the Australian monsoon and tropical cyclones that form in the Indian Ocean. One of the tropical cyclones that emerged was Tropical Cyclone Marian, which occurred from February 27 to March 5, 2021. This research will use the Delft3D model, reanalysis, and observational data to determine these conditions. Based on the analysis results, the Delft3D Model can simulate tidal patterns and wave height conditions that occurred during the Mariana Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Java Waters region, supported by an RMSE correction of 0.2 to 0.4. The model results also show that in spatial conditions, there are fluctuations in sea level and wave height when cyclones occur, indicating that cyclones have sufficiently affected sea level and wave height conditions, which are supported by a comparison chart that shows sea level conditions tend to be higher than normal conditions and the model results. The wave height has fluctuations, indicating that the wave height corresponds to the cyclone period.