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Nabilla, Ulya
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Journal : Jurnal GAMMA-PI

 1 
PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE (DBD) DENGAN MODEL SIR DI KOTA LANGSA nildawati, lazini afriani; Nabilla, Ulya
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 7 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v7i1.11989

Abstract

Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) merupakan salah satu penyakit menular yang masih menjadi masalah kesehatan utama di Indonesia, termasuk di Kota Langsa, Provinsi Aceh. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis penyebaran penyakit DBD menggunakan model matematika SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered). Dengan pendekatan deskriptif-analitik, digunakan data sekunder berupa jumlah kasus DBD dan jumlah penduduk Kota Langsa pada periode Januari–Maret 2024. Model SIR disimulasikan menggunakan metode numerik Euler melalui perangkat lunak MATLAB selama 180 hari. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa jumlah individu yang terinfeksi mencapai puncak pada hari ke-45, lalu menurun secara signifikan karena meningkatnya jumlah individu yang sembuh. Nilai bilangan reproduksi dasar (R₀) yang diperoleh adalah kurang dari satu, mengindikasikan bahwa penyebaran DBD tidak membentuk epidemi besar selama periode tersebut. Analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa perubahan kecil pada parameter penularan (β) sangat memengaruhi jumlah kasus infeksi. Penelitian ini menyarankan agar strategi pengendalian difokuskan pada pengurangan laju penularan dan percepatan proses penyembuhan. Meskipun model SIR memberikan gambaran awal yang cukup baik, perlu pengembangan lebih lanjut dengan mempertimbangkan populasi vektor dan faktor eksternal lainnya untuk memperoleh hasil prediksi yang lebih akurat.
PENERAPAN MODEL VERHULST PADA JUMLAH PRODUKSI KELAPA SAWIT DI KOTA LANGSA Rihadatul Aishy; Nabilla, Ulya; Nurviana
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 7 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v7i1.11983

Abstract

Palm oil is one of the main commodities that plays a crucial role in supporting the regional economy, including in Langsa City. However, annual palm oil production has shown fluctuations, necessitating a mathematical model to understand and predict its growth pattern. This study aims to estimate the amount of palm oil production in Langsa City and to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation results using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The data used consist of annual palm oil production from 2018 to 2024, obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of Langsa City.The research stages include determining the carrying capacity (K) and growth rate (r), constructing the Verhulst logistic model, and calculating MAPE to assess model accuracy. The analysis results show that the estimated palm oil production in 2025 is 736 tons. The obtained MAPE value of 40.48% indicates that the model’s accuracy is still relatively low in predicting palm oil production. This may be due to the fluctuating nature of production data and the limited observation period. Nevertheless, the Verhulst logistic model remains a relevant initial approach to understanding the dynamics of palm oil production growth in Langsa City.
PENERAPAN METODE ADAMS BASHFORTH-MOULTON (ABM) PADA APPROXIMATION JUMLAH PENGUKURAN BIDANG TANAH DI KANTOR PERTANAHAN KOTA LANGSA Maulana, Shevira Agustri; Sari, Riezky Purnama; Nabilla, Ulya
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 7 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v7i2.13426

Abstract

Measuring land plots is the process of determining the location of the boundaries of land plots, which is part of the process of making land title certificates. The number of land plots in the Langsa City Land Office during December 2023 to November 2024 shows a fluctuating pattern. The aim of this analysis is to find out The results of forecasting the number of land plots at the Langsa City Land Office using the Adams Bashforth Moulton method. The data used is land plot measurement data with the type of data being secondary data obtained from the City Land Office Langsa. The type of analysis used is quantitative analysis using the Adams Bashforth Moulton method. The Adams-Bashforth-Moulton (ABM) method is used to determine the forecasting results on the number of measurements of land plots at the Langsa City Land Office. This method starts with an initial solution using fourth order Runge-Kutta, then substituted into the Adams-Bashforth predictor equation and corrected with the Adams-Moulton corrector equation. The iteration is stopped if the relative error is less than 5×10⁻⁷ after 15 iterations at the interval [0,15]. As a result, the number of land plot measurements in Langsa City increases every year, with 62 plots in December 2024, 63 plots in January 2025, 65 plots in February 2025, and 66 plots in March 2025.
Co-Authors Afrah Junita Agus Putra AS Amelia Amelia Amelia Azizah Azizah Basriwijaya, Kiagus Muhammad Zain Chaidir Chaidir Ellida Novita Lydia Fairus Fairus, Fairus Fajri, Rahmatul Fazira, Andini Gustina, Cut Hadiana, Asep Id Herlina Napitupulu Junidil Asna, Intan Lilis Nurjanah Liza Fitria, Liza Maulana, Shevira Agustri Mawarni Mawarni Melina Melina Muhammad Fuad Muhammad Salman Muliani, Fitra Mulyani, Fitra mutiara mutiara Navia, Zidni Ilman nildawati, lazini afriani Nirmala Sari Norizan Mohamed Nurviana Nurviana, Nurviana Purnama Sari, Riezky Rahmani, Tri Rahmawati, Rahmawati Rahmazani, Intan Rahmi Meutia, Rahmi Rangkuti, Wiratama Ratna Nila, Ida Riezky Purnama Sari Rihadatul Aishy Rini Mastuti Rosmaiti, Rosmaiti Safrizal Safrizal Sari, Riezky Purnama Sari, Riska Novita Saumi, Fazrina Sukono Sukono Tarisma, Tantri Valentina Adimurti Kusumaningtyas Yulison Herry Chrisnanto