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Sinaga, Anggiat
Universitas Mahkota Tricom Unggul
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Dinamika Integrasi Pasar Volatilitas Harga dan Efektivitas Kebijakan Pemerintah dalam Stabilisasi Harga Beras di Sumatera Utara Ginting, Nelva Meyriani; Sinaga, Anggiat; Gea, Sary
Jurnal Social Economic of Agriculture Vol 14, No 2 (2025): December
Publisher : Agribusiness Department, Agriculture Faculty, Tanjungpura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26418/jsea.v14i2.100747

Abstract

Rice is a strategic commodity in North Sumatra, but its price volatility has the potential to hamper economic growth, disrupt poverty alleviation programmes, and reduce food stability. High rice prices indicate that government policies are not yet optimal, so price stabilisation is needed to ensure the availability and affordability of rice and support better distribution from producers to consumers. The purpose of this study is to analyse market integration, rice price volatility, rice price transmission, and government food policies for rice price stability in North Sumatra Province. The analysis methods used in this study are the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse rice market integration, the ARCH/GARCH method to analyse rice price volatility, and the AECM (Asymmetric Error Correction Model) to analyse rice price transmission, and the Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) method to analyse government food policies for rice price stability in North Sumatra Province. The results of the study show that the rice market in North Sumatra is integrated in the long term, but remains weak in the short term with asymmetric price transmission. High price volatility occurs at the producer level, while it is relatively low at the consumer level due to government intervention. Government policies improve farmers' welfare but have a negative impact on price stability. Therefore, rice price stabilisation needs to focus on increasing productivity and improving food distribution to be sustainable and fair for consumers and farmers. Keywords: market, policy, price transmission, rice, volatility
Co-Authors Ahmad Fadli Amin Hou Anita Rizky Lubis Arsyaf Tampubolon Dwita Sakuntala Eka Martyna Theodora Eka Martyna Theodora Elisa Oktavia Simatupang Fadli, Ahmad - Fichri Alfisyahri Gea, Sary Ginting, Nelva Ginting, Nelva Meyriani Ginting, Nelva Meyriani Br Indra Budiman Indra Budiman Lubis, Anita Rizky Milani, Milani Nelva Ginting Purba, Suwandy Roma Sihombing Sinaga, Reflianta Sinaga, Reflianta Br Sungguh Ponten Pranata Suwandy Purba Tumini Sipayung Veronika Halawa Zebua, Selamat Zendrato, Melvin