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All Journal Agrikultura Jurnal Pertanian Agros Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung (Journal of Agricultural Engineering) Aplikasia: Jurnal Aplikasi Ilmu-Ilmu Agama Lumbung: Jurnal Ilmiah Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Payakumbuh Viabel : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu-Ilmu Pertanian JAIM (Jurnal Abdi Masyarakat) Manajemen Agribisnis: Jurnal Agribisnis Journal of Industial Engineering and Technology Jurnal Sosiologi Pertanian dan Agribisnis Journal of Agribusiness Science and Rural Development Jurnal Ilmiah Membangun Desa dan Pertanian
Moh. Yusuf Dawud
Universitas Bojonegoro
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Public Health Social Sciences Veterinary Other

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Mathematical Modeling for Climate-Based Optimization of Rice Planting Schedules Dawud, Moh Yusuf; Masahid; Abryandoko, Eko Wahyu
Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung (Journal of Agricultural Engineering) Vol. 14 No. 6 (2025): December 2025
Publisher : The University of Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jtepl.v14i6.2285-2296

Abstract

The stability of rice production is greatly influenced by the dynamics of climate variability that changes rapidly and is unpredictable. This study developed a climate-based planting scheduling model that utilizes daily climate data and annual production data for the period 2016–2024. The predictive model was built through multiple linear regression to examine the effects of temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind speed on crop yields and ARIMA to project climate and rice production until 2029. Data were obtained from BMKG, BPS, and related regional agencies, then processed to produce an adaptive planting schedule. The regression results showed high accuracy with R² = 0.99, Adjusted R² = 0.961, MAE = 5.980, and RMSE = 6.770. Rainfall showed a negative effect (p = 0.025) on rice production. The optimization model produced the two most profitable planting months each year and provided more stable yields than conventional planting patterns. Five-year production projections show fluctuations influenced by climate conditions, including a sharp decline in 2027 and a rebound in 2029. The development of an adaptive schedule model allows for alternative decision-making in areas vulnerable to climate change.
Co-Authors Abid, M. Alwi Ahmad Aminudin Anggi Ariyanti Atmaja, Dimas Surya DARSAN Darsan, Darsan Dea Nova Artamevia, Shalsa Deviana Diah Probowati Durroh, Badiatud Durroh, Badiatut Eko Wahyu Abriyandoko EKO WAHYU ABRYANDOKO Endang Endang, Endang Erwanto Fika Rizkia Fina Sulistiya Ningsih Hartiningsih Astuti Joko Tri Prasetyawan Masahid Masahid Masahid Muna Nabila Ovia Afirka Nisa', Yulia Khoirun Noor Djohar Pamuji, Imam Qurotul Aini Rahmawati, Laily Agustina Saputro, Alfian Feri Setyaningtyas, Ismi Nur Sifa Bimananda, Ikhwan Susilo, Joko Hadi Tri Astuti Handayani Waffiq Fauziah, Saila Wahyu Adhi Saputro