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Agung Brastama Putra
Jurusan Sistem Informasi Fakultas Teknik Industri Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran (UPN) Jawa Timur
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Development of Sales Forecasting and Stock Optimization System Using Least Square and Safety Stock Andika Gosal; Agung Brastama Putra; Seftin Fitri Ana Wati
bit-Tech Vol. 8 No. 3 (2026): bit-Tech
Publisher : Komunitas Dosen Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32877/bt.v8i3.3388

Abstract

The ongoing digital transformation across business sectors has encouraged micro and small enterprises to adopt information systems that enable accurate data processing and more strategic decision-making. CV. Ragam Jaya is one such business that still depends on manual processes for recording sales transactions and monitoring inventory, resulting in inconsistent stock data, delayed reporting, and limited capability to analyze demand patterns. To address these challenges, this study develops a web-based forecasting and inventory optimization system that integrates Least Square–based demand prediction with Safety Stock calculations. The Rapid Application Development (RAD) framework is utilized to accelerate system construction through iterative prototyping and continuous user involvement. Data were collected through interviews and direct observations to capture operational issues in the existing workflow. The system provides automated forecasting, inventory management, and stock buffer recommendations, enabling users to interpret demand trends more effectively. Experimental evaluation shows that the forecasting module achieves stable trend estimation with an average deviation of less than 8% from historical sales data, indicating strong alignment with actual demand behavior. Blackbox testing was conducted on core modules transactions, forecasting, reporting, and stock optimization and all tests achieved a 100% pass rate, demonstrating consistent system reliability and robustness. The integration of Least Square forecasting and Safety Stock significantly improves inventory planning accuracy by reducing manual discrepancies and supporting timely replenishment decisions. Overall, the developed system is effective in enhancing operational efficiency, minimizing human error, and improving stock control for small distribution businesses seeking to transition toward digitalized management practices.
Co-Authors Abdul Rezha Efrat Najaf Adriano Femaz Rivaldy Afif Ghani Zahran Agussalim Agussalim, Agussalim Ahmad Mustofa.K.Pasya Al-Ghiffari, Syafiq Aliyyah Nabiilah Farahdita Amalia Anjani Arifiyanti Andika Gosal Angga Zakaria Anindo Saka Fitri Ardiansyah, Vangga Mahyudin Arista Pratama Audrey Septya Rosanti Audy Fitri Ariani Ayu Ithriah, Syurfah Bagas Adil Putrajaya Bahri, Elsa Maya Cahyo Wibowo, Nur Canang Cita Gemilang Chairunnisa, Zulfa Firnanda Chilmi, Farid Cynthia Widya Lestari Dewi Safitri, Triyatul Dhian Satria Yudha Kartika Eka Wahyudinarti Eka Wahyudinarti Eliezer M Putra S EMILIA ROSA Fahryan Putra Ramadi Falah, Nailul Farah Bianca Feby Dwiputra Setyawan Fidyah Salsabila Putri Sillehu Firnanda Putri, Adelia Fitri, Anindo Saka Gazani, Hisyam Abiansyah Hanafi, Rizwan Hanafi, Rizwan Haq, Ahmad Nashirul Hilal Abdullah Hilal Abdullah Jannah, Ayu Roudhotul Kotalima, Rikha Maisya Kusumantara, Prisa Marga M. Aghis Sufiantoro Saputra Marisca Amanda Hidayat Maulana, Abdullah Mohamad Irwan Afandi Mohamad Riza Ramadhani Oding Mohammad Bintang Fajar Muhammad Ananda Giovanny R Muhammad Januar Pribadi Muhammad Rizky Rahmatul Anam Murtadho Yanwar, Ringgo Najma Choirun Nisa Natasya Hayudyo Murthiningtyas Nugroho, Budi Nugroho, Budi Nur Hayati, Siti Nurul Izzah Permatasari, Reisa Prasasti Karunia Farista Ananto Priambodo, Bangkit Puti Tsabita Najwa Arief Putri Andini Rachmatika Putri Andini Rachmatika Ragil, Sandi Raihana Sakhi Aswanda Ramdhan Ariansyah Rima Tsaniyah Amilatus Sholihah Rizka Hadiwiyanti Rizka Hadwiyanti Rizki Akbar, Rizki Safitri Pradhistya Suwandi Salma Nuraini Seftin Fitri Ana Wati Shalsabila Titanie Harianto Shofiyyatul Badriyyah Sukma, Wahyu Nisfu Melati Taqiyuddin Ahmad Al Aufa Tri Luhur Indayanti Sugata Wahyu Imam Syafii Wahyu Wicaksono Wahyuni, Eka Dyar Wajendra Dewi, Marylda Salma Wibowo, Annisa Raudya Wibowo Wibowo, Nur Cahyo Windy Fadhilah Susanti Yessy Arye Yustraini Yuli Pratiwi, Ela Zahrah Aliyah Rachman Zahrah Hayat Arka Putri