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This study is aim to analyze the expost (2001-2004) and exante (2007-2010) impacts of industrial relation issues on Indonesian economy in the era of regional autonomy. To reach this objective, a simultaneous equations model containing 34 stuctural equations and 18 identity equations is constructed. Time series 1980-2004 data was used in this study and model was estimated by 2SLS Method, SYSLIN Procedure. Historical and forcasting simulation used the SIMNLIN Procedure. Estimated parame Evi Lisna; Bonar M. Sinaga; Sjafri Mangkuprawira; Hermanto Siregar
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 1 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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This study is aim to analyze the expost (2001-2004) and exante (2007-2010) impacts of industrial relation issues on Indonesian economy in the era of regional autonomy. To reach this objective, a simultaneous equations model containing 34 stuctural equations and 18 identity equations is constructed. Time series 1980-2004 data was used in this study and model was estimated by 2SLS Method, SYSLIN Procedure. Historical and forcasting simulation used the SIMNLIN Procedure. Estimated parameters of the model suggest that an increase of minimum wage policy, emergence of labour union and strike cases affect significantly on investment, agregate supply, unemployment and inflation. Results of the simulations analysis indicate that solving industrial relation issues is potential to increase investment and agregate supply as well as to decrease unemployment and inflation in 2007-2010. Key words: industrial relation issues, economy, regional autonomy

The objectives of this research were; (1) to analyze production efficiency and profitability of smallholder rubber monoculture and smallholder rubber agroforestry systems, and (2) to find out the effects of policy distortions towards rubber production under smallholder monoculture and smallholder agroforestry. Smallholders are not only judged by yield per hectare; economic efficiency is not only a matter of returns to land and returns to labor but smallholders can adopt low input strategy, conti A. Rodgers; Bonar M. Sinaga; Suseno Budidarsono
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 1 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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The objectives of this research were; (1) to analyze production efficiency and profitability of smallholder rubber monoculture and smallholder rubber agroforestry systems, and (2) to find out the effects of policy distortions towards rubber production under smallholder monoculture and smallholder agroforestry. Smallholders are not only judged by yield per hectare; economic efficiency is not only a matter of returns to land and returns to labor but smallholders can adopt low input strategy, continue making profits at prices that would be economically viable. Such flexibility offers the possibility of efficient resource allocation in response to diversification of economic opportunities. The policy analysis matrix (PAM) with the domestic resource cost (DRC) results under the baseline scenario indicated that the use of domestic resources in production of rubber was efficient and socially profitable under the two systems but more desirable under monoculture system given the current prices for physical inputs, outputs, technologies and policy transfer. However, even with sensitivity analysis of 10% increase in the price of rubber holding other factors constant does not make rubber agroforestry system more efficient than its counterpart and a 20% fall in price of rubber made rubber production under agroforestry system less efficient and undesirable. All measures are compared to the alternative policy indicators currently used. Therefore, recommendations made from this study relate to the need for diversification into better practices that can sustain efficient rubber production under the agroforestry system, encouraging private sector participation and reducing disincentives to rubber production. Key words: smallholder rubber agroforestry, economic efficiency, policy analysis matrix

The objectives of this research are: (1) To analyze labor structural transformation in West Java Province, (2) To analyze linkage intersector on labor structure transformation process interfarm, industry and other sectors, (3) To analyze impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth and labor structure transformation in West Java Province. In order to answer the above, a simultaneous equation model was established, consisting of 32 structural equations and 15 identity equations. Further Muhammad Arief Dirgantoro; Sjafri Mangkuprawira; Hermanto Siregar; Bonar M. Sinaga
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 2 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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The objectives of this research are: (1) To analyze labor structural transformation in West Java Province, (2) To analyze linkage intersector on labor structure transformation process interfarm, industry and other sectors, (3) To analyze impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth and labor structure transformation in West Java Province. In order to answer the above, a simultaneous equation model was established, consisting of 32 structural equations and 15 identity equations. Furthermore, this research used data pooling where data were analyzed with descriptive analysis, econometrics model, as well as predictions using a variety of policy scenario alternatives. Model was then estimated by 2SLS method with SYSLIN procedures, while prediction simulation was performed by using SIMNLIN procedures. In its development era, West Java province have done transformation structure of labor. During this labor structure transformation process, the decrease on agricultural sector contribution was not automatically followed by increase in labor contribution in industrial sector since it was absorbed by other sectors such as the informal ones. The increase in local taxes receipt gave a positive impact on output growth, but it had a negative impact on agriculture labor, and it had lead to labor structure transformation. The result also showed that an increase in personel current expenditure and regional income from DAU gave a positive impact on agriculture output growth and it had not lead to labor structure transformation. Next, the increase development expenditure for agriculture gave a positive impact on output growth agriculture, but it had a negative impact on total output growth and it had not lead to labor structure transformation. Expenditure for infrastructure had a positive impact on output growth, and it had lead to labor structure transformation. Key words: fiscal decentralization policy, economic growth, labor structure transformation, simultaneous equation model

Rice consumption contributes the largest spending among Indonesian. Meanwhile, the changing price of rice is influenced by national inflation. Increased in rice consumption is caused by the increase of population. It is, therefore, clear that the problem of the rice price increament relates to rice demand and supply. This research was aimed to analize (1) factors influenced the demand and supply of rice in Indonesia; (2) effectivity of government floor price purchasing policy (GFPPP) vis-à-vis Ria Kusumaningrum; Harianto .; Bonar M. Sinaga
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 4 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana
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Rice consumption contributes the largest spending among Indonesian. Meanwhile, the changing price of rice is influenced by national inflation. Increased in rice consumption is caused by the increase of population. It is, therefore, clear that the problem of the rice price increament relates to rice demand and supply. This research was aimed to analize (1) factors influenced the demand and supply of rice in Indonesia; (2) effectivity of government floor price purchasing policy (GFPPP) vis-à-vis brown rice price policy in frame of increasing rice production; (3) impact of GFPPP on rice demand and supply in Indonesia. The research used time series data ranging from the year of 1981 to 2005. Two stages least square (2SLS) method was used to analyze the data by means of SAS/ETS Version 6.12. It is concluded that the GFPPP increased rice supply in Indonesia. The GFPPP also increased rice price at farmer level and rice production, but decreased demand of the brown rice. Keywords: rice, supply demand, policy of base price purchasing of government

The research objectives are to analyze impact of human capital investment on income distribution and poverty incidence using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) Model. The model is combined with beta distribution function and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke. The human capital investment is approached by government expenditure for education and health. The simulation result shows that human capital investment is able to increase economic growth and household income. Income distribution especially Rasidin Karo Karo Sitepu; Bonar M. Sinaga; Rina Oktaviani; Mangara Tambunan
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 32 No. 2 (2009): Forum Pascasarjana
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The research objectives are to analyze impact of human capital investment on income distribution and poverty incidence using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) Model. The model is combined with beta distribution function and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke. The human capital investment is approached by government expenditure for education and health. The simulation result shows that human capital investment is able to increase economic growth and household income. Income distribution especially in rural area becomes more equal which is shown by the beta distribution move to the right side of poverty line. Poverty incidence, poverty gap and poverty severity also decrease except for non-labor household group in the urban area. Human capital investment gives more benefit to household in rural area than those in urban area especially for farm-laborer and agriculture entrepreneur household group in the rural area. Key words: CGE model, Foster-Greer-Thorbecke, beta distribution function, human capital investment, poverty line

Household farmers have allocated the family labour resources to their cattle farming that contribute to farmers’ income generation and distributed to their household expenditures. Household farmers face the transaction cost during the production process. The highest transaction cost, the least income allocation. The objectives of the study were (1) to develop household economy model in the corn-cattle farming system include transaction cost and (2) to analyze factors influencing the input us Femi Hadidjah Elly; Bonar M. Sinaga; Sri Utami Kuntjoro; Nunung Kusnadi
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 32 No. 3 (2009): Forum Pascasarjana
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Household farmers have allocated the family labour resources to their cattle farming that contribute to farmers’ income generation and distributed to their household expenditures. Household farmers face the transaction cost during the production process. The highest transaction cost, the least income allocation. The objectives of the study were (1) to develop household economy model in the corn-cattle farming system include transaction cost and (2) to analyze factors influencing the input use, output, income generation and expenditures of household farmers. A survey was used to gather and collect information of 194 household farmers that sampling by simple random. Simultaneous equations model with to SLS method was used to estimate the parameter. The result showed that household economy model could describe promptly the impact of transaction cost. The transaction cost significantly affected the farmers behavior on production decision, the use of production input and family labor as well as consumption expenditures. A change on the policy of increasing output price, transaction costs of the cattle intermediaries and corn transport cost have affected the farmer’s household economic performances. Key words: transaction cost, household economics, corn-cattle farming systems

Integrated crop-livestock systems program with special reference to rice field and beef cattle is a potential alternative to support the development of agriculture sector in Indonesia. The implementation on this integrated program was to enhance rice production and productivity through a system involving beef cattle with its goal on increasing farmers’ income. The impact of integrated crop- livestock systems program to household economy farmers was studied in order to identify factors influenc Atien Priyanti; Bonar M. Sinaga; Yusman Syaukat; Sri Utami Kuntjoro
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 1 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Integrated crop-livestock systems program with special reference to rice field and beef cattle is a potential alternative to support the development of agriculture sector in Indonesia. The implementation on this integrated program was to enhance rice production and productivity through a system involving beef cattle with its goal on increasing farmers’ income. The impact of integrated crop- livestock systems program to household economy farmers was studied in order to identify factors influencing behavior of farmer’s decision-making along with its interrelation between factors. Impact of changes due to the external policy options was also assessed and farmer’s characteristics were described descriptively. Five districts in the province of DIY, Central Java and East Java with 274 farmers were purposively used in the study. Simultaneous equations model with two SLS method was used to estimate the parameter, followed by the non-linear simulation approach. The results show that most of the explanatory variables significantly affected to its endogenous variables. Rice production is responsive to harvested land area which influenced by its volume of input rice derived demand. The volume of its input derived demand also influences cattle and compost production. Family labor utilization for rice and cattle production and their time allocation on non-farm and off farm jobs are related to each other. Input price of rice and live cattle are affected to their derived demand function. Rice consumption is responsive to its price which the lower the price, the higher its consumption. Credit on crops farm that has to be paid by farmers is also responsive and positively related to its commercial credit rate. Effect of a 10 percent increase on output and input price of production rice, cattle and compost will increase their production; hence will also increase farmers’ income and the expenditures. This will apply to farmers that involved in a program of integrated crop-livestock systems. On the other hand, alternative policy of combination between a 10 percent increase of output price along with 5 percent increase on its input price yield in the increasing production for farmers that are not involved in the crop-livestock systems program, hence will also increase the income. Key words: household economics, simulation analysis, crop-livestock systems

Migration is a natural process to distribute labor surplus in origin regions to destination regions having a high level of labor demand, but in recent years migration causes labor surplus and unemployment in the destination region. The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of migration on labor market behavior and to evaluate the impact of internal migration policy on labor market behavior in Indonesia. To reach this objective, a simultaneous equation model containing 15 structur Safrida .; Bonar M. Sinaga; Hermanto Siregar; Harianto .
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 2 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana
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Migration is a natural process to distribute labor surplus in origin regions to destination regions having a high level of labor demand, but in recent years migration causes labor surplus and unemployment in the destination region. The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of migration on labor market behavior and to evaluate the impact of internal migration policy on labor market behavior in Indonesia. To reach this objective, a simultaneous equation model containing 15 structural equations and 5 identities equations are constructed. The analysis use time series 1985-2006 data. Model was estimated by 2SLS method and simulation was used the Newton method. The results of this research indicated that migration influence labor supply in Jawa, Kalimantan and other island. Factors that influence labor demand in Java are amount of industry and government development expenditure, but in Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and other island influenced by total investment, government development expenditure and lag labor demand. The impact of internal migration policy on labor market by way of increasing minimum wage can not solve labor market problem because the policy cause increase unemployment in each island. The impact of increasing minimum wage and government development expenditure can solve labor market problem through decreasing unemployment, although average wage in each island is increasing. The policy can also solve distribution of population by way of decreasing migration to Jawa. Key words: internal migration, labor market

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