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Journal : Journal of Mathematics UNP

Penggunaan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Tipe Brown dalam Meramalkan Pergerakan Kasus Positif Covid-19 di Kota Padang Nurul Umiati Husna; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 5, No 3 (2020): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (325.24 KB) | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v5i3.10601

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Abstract — Covid-19 is an infectious disease that caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus. This virus can cause the patient gotten respiratory problems, such as Pneumonis, SARS, and MERS. The amout of     Covid-19 cases have been increased everyday. Therefore, it is necessary to do forecasting for the movement of positive Covid-19 cases in Padang City for the next few days. The purpose of this research was to find out the form of a model for the movement of positive Covid-19 cases in Padang City and to know the results of the movement of positive Covid-19 cases in Padang City. The type of this research is applied research. The method that used in this research is Triple Exponential Smooting Brown Type with the parameter of  that minimize the value of MSE was 0,29.  The results of this research showing the movement of positive Covid-19 in Padang City from August 15, 2020 to August 19, 2020 was 907, 933, 960, 987, and 1016 cases. Keywords — Covid-19, The movement of positive cases, Forecasting, Triple Exponential Smoothing Brown Type.
Penerapan Metode ARIMA untuk Meramalkan Harga Emas Terhadap Mata Uang Dolar Amerika Serikat NA Mentacem; Arnellis Arnellis; Yenni Kurniawati
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 4, No 1 (2019): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (439.116 KB) | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v4i1.6274

Abstract

Abstract–Gold is one of precious metals group which has high value and often to be used as a investment object. Meanwhile, United States Dollar (USD) is the most stable currency among all of currencies in the world at this time. Gold and USD are the best investment object for keep our wealth from inflation. Based on these facts, it is necessary to forecast the price of gold in USD. The forecasting method that is used in this research is ARIMA method. The goal of this research is to get the prediction of gold price in USD in the future based on the price of gold from year 2009 to 2016 .The result of this research indicates that the ARIMA (1,1,1) model as the best model for forecasting. The complete equation is. Based on this model, the gold price in 2017 is going to increase. The prediction of gold’s price in January 2017 is USD 1,128 for every an ounce gold, and the price of gold in December is predicted will be at the point USD 1,171 for an ounce. Keywords–Gold Price, United States Dollar, ARIMA, Invesment
Model Matematika Rantai Makanan Tiga Spesies Yongki Sukma; Media Rosha; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 2, No 1 (2014): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (442.267 KB) | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v2i1.1966

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Abstract –– Predation interaction between two species have been described in Lotka-Volterra mathematical model. But in an ecosystem, predation interaction involving more than two species. In this study will be discussed predation interaction involving three species in a food chain. Obtained mathematical model will be analyzed by finding the stability of fixed point, the stability of fixed point will be analyzed with Routh-Hurwitz criterion. The model consists of three differential equations representing each species. The model has four fixed points, the fourth fixed point is stable, the first fixed point is not stable but the third and second fixed point are stable with certain conditions. The result of analisys show that three populations does not become extinct if product of species I growth rate with spesies III growth rate is greater than product of species I death rate with species III death rate.   Keywords –– Food Chain, Fixed Point, Routh-Hurwitz
Optimasi Hasil Produksi Tahu dan Tempe dengan Metode Branch and Bound dan Metode Cutting Plane Raudhatul Jannah A.M; Arnellis Arnellis; Riry Sriningsih
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 3, No 1 (2018): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1216.469 KB) | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v3i1.4665

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Abstract –The optimal profit isthe main goal in every business.The purpose of this study is to determine how the problem of optimization of  production output to be solved and to know the result of optimal production from Tofu Yanto Factory based on the availability of materials, capital of production, times and worker. Factory need to plan a strategy so that all available resources can be used appropriately to obtain optimal production results. A linear programming is a decision making technique for solving the problem of limited resource allocation to achieve an optimum goal. Some ways that can be done to complete the integer programming is by using the branch and bound method and the cutting plane method. Both of these methods are methods for solving integer linear programming problems that will result in integer decision variables. Based on the result of the research, it is found that the branch and bound method is more effectively than the cutting plane method for the optimization of tofu and tempe products at Tofu Yanto Factory.
Penyelesaian Sistem Persamaan Linear Fuzzy Menggunakan Metode Dekomposisi Crout Aulia Rindu Permata; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 3, No 2 (2018): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (945.264 KB) | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v3i2.4674

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 Abstract  Variables and constants from the system of linear equations commonly studied are real numbers because the problems that are resolved are clear. In fact, not all problems are clear, but still in a vague state, so to overcome them, a fuzzy linear equation system is needed. Fuzzy linear equation systems have variables and constants in the form of fuzzy numbers while the coefficients are real numbers. This study uses Crout's decomposition method in solving fuzzy linear equation systems. Crout Decomposition Method is a method that factifies the coefficient coefficient A of the system equation Ax = y to be a matrix multiplication LU where L is a matrix of the lower triangle and U is a triangular matrix on which the main diagonal is one. The results of this study found that Crout's decomposition method can be used in solving fuzzy linear equation systems.
Matriks Leslie dan Aplikasinya pada Pemodelan Jumlah Populasi Perempuan di Sumatera Barat Mayang Sugara; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 6, No 4 (2021): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (806.073 KB) | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v6i4.12208

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The Leslie matrix is a demographic method for calculating the number and growth rate of a population. This method was applied to determine the female population in West Sumatera. The growth of the female population in West Sumatera can affect the population because it has the nature to breed. Based on the Central Statistics Agency for West Sumatera in 2020, it was recorded the population of West Sumatera consisted of 5,534,472 people. This data has increased compared to 2010 amounting to 687,563 people. This study aims to prove the theorem of the characteristics of the Leslie matrix and application the number and rate of the female population in West Sumatera on next two years. This research is an applied research with secondary data obtained through the website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the West Sumatera Health Service. The research was conducted by proving the characteristics of the Leslie matrix and its use with a matrix size of "16×16"  and determining the eigenvalues of matrix. Based on research, it was found that the eigenvalue obtained wan "<1"  so the projection for the next two years decreased from the previous years.
Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Konsumen dalam Memilih Sepeda Motor dengan Menggunakan Analisis Faktor (Studi Kasus Mahasiswa Matematika FMIPA UNP) Resi Arsiva; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 7, No 1 (2022): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (628.165 KB) | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v7i1.10674

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The poor public transportation makes people choose motorbikes as the main transportation. The purpose of this research is to know what factors can influence the consumers in the course of choosing motorbike within study cases on department mathematic of UNP students.The questionnaire distributed  used total sampling technic. There are four factors that influence consumers in the course of choosing motorbike. The first factor is current development, family members, lifestyle, satisfaction to product, learn from experience,  consumer attitude to product, and experience. The second factor is parents profession, economic situation, and parents income. The third factor is friend and  elder people existence. the fourth factor is bad and good viewpoint to product and parents experience.
ANALISIS MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCALING DAN PENERAPANNYA PADA PEMETAAN KAB/KOTA DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT BERDASARKAN JUMLAH PENDUDUK USIA KERJA TERDAMPAK COVID-19 Dewi Safitri; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 6, No 3 (2021): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (541.607 KB) | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v6i3.11822

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The COVID-19 pandemic became an epidemic throughout the country at the end of 2019 until now. The impact is not only on the health sector but also on the employment sector in Indonesia, one of which is West Sumatra. The perceived impacts include unemployment, temporary absence from work and a reducing working hours. This impact makes the economy of the community decline. The purpose of this research is to see how the districts/cities in the province of West Sumatra are mapped/grouped based on the number of working age residents affected by COVID-19 using multidimensional scaling analysis. So later it can be used as a reference for the government in the future. From the results of the mapping, three groups were formed. The largest number of working age residents affected by COVID-19 was Padang City, followed by Agam districts. With a stress value of 0.25% and R2 of 0,999 it shows that the multidimensional scaling analysis map obtained is acceptable.
Preferensi Mahasiswa UNP Terhadap Tempat Kos di kec. Padang Utara pada Masa Pandemi (Covid-19) dengan Menggunakan Analisis Konjoin Lidia Bartasari; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 8, No 1 (2023): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v8i1.12730

Abstract

Boarding house is primary needs for collage students who migrate. Each student has a different of preference in determining a place to stay or boarding house. This study aims to determine the combination of attribute levels from the level of preference of Padang State University students in choosing boarding houses in North Padang District.  The attributes used in this study are the distance to the boarding house, the rental price, and the boarding facilities The data analysis technique used is conjoint analysis.  The results showed that the combination of attribute levels that students preferred most in choosing a boarding house was a boarding distance of  km, the price range of boarding from IDR  to IDR and facilities of boarding prioritizing is Wi-Fi. Meanwhile, the combination of attribute levels that students dislike choosing a boarding house are boarding distances  km, the prices of boarding  IDR, and no facilities. The most important attribute for Padang State University students in choosing a boarding house is the boarding facility attribute because it has the highest relative importance value of 39.4%.
Model Matematika SEIRS Penyebaran Penyakit Pneumonia pada Balita dengan Pengaruh Vaksinasi Aly Muhammad Zhafran; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 7, No 3 (2022): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (317.419 KB) | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v7i3.12577

Abstract

This study aims to establish a mathematical model of the distribution of pneumonia in children under five using the SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) model, model analysis, and comparison of minimal vaccinations. This model consists of several classes, namely susceptible, infected but not yet infectious, infected, and cured. Analysis of the stability of the model is obtained by finding a disease-free fixed point whose analysis results are asymptotically stable and an endemic fixed point whose analysis results are asymptotically stable if the value of  A>(Cαβmσ-Cαβσ)/(BCm-Bmρ) and A>βγρ/BC .