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All Journal AKSIOMA: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika JURNAL EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT Menara Ilmu Pelita Eksakta Journal of Mathematics UNP

Arnellis Arnellis

Universitas Negeri Padang

Author-ID : 2756476

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Physics Other

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Modifikasi Cadangan Premi Prospektif pada Asuransi Jiwa Seumur Hidup Joint Life Menggunakan Metode New Jersey Zulfadri Zulfadri; Arnellis Arnellis; Muhammad Subhan
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 4, No 4 (2019): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstract – Basically the insurance company requires a reserve fund to pay compensation in the event of a claim. Not a few life insurance companies that incur losses beacuse can’t to pay compensation to participants of the insurance. These circumstances can be anticipated if the insurance company has the reserves that have been prepared and it accounted appropriately. One of the methods used to calculate the premium reserve is New Jersey. These method is derived from the formula of prospective reserves. The calculation of the value of reserves method using New Jersey begins by determining the cash value annuity, then calculate the net single premium, and annual net premium , proceed with the counting of net premium advanced and reserves end of the year-t. These method stated that value a reserve premium in the first year is zero, so that insurance companies can use the premium for the need insurance.Keywords – Premium Reserves, New Jersey Method, Prospective, Life Insurance, Joint Life

Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Daging Sapi Provinsi Sumatera Barat Menggunakan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Ganda Tipe Holt Septri Novita; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 5, No 2 (2020): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstract — Beef is one of the sources of animal protein that is able to fulfill human nutritional needs. Beef production in West Sumatera Province comes from slaughterhouses, modern or traditional abattoirs. The purpose of this study is make a forecasting model for the amount of beef production in the province of West Sumatera that using the Holt type double exponential smoothing method and predict the amount of beef production based on the model that formed. Data takes from the data of beef production’s amount in the province of West Sumatera from 2005 until 2018 obtained from the Department of Animal Husbandry and Animal Health of West Sumatera’s Province. The method used is the method of Holt Type Double Exponential Smoothing, parameter α and ɣ minimize MSE is 0,9 and 0,1. The result of the forecast beef production in the province of West Sumatera from 2019 until 2023 in a row is 20.644,40 ton, 20.892,66 ton, 21.140,93 ton, 21.389,19 ton, dan 21637,45 ton. Keywords — Forecasting, Double Eksponential Smoothing Type Holt, Beef Production.

Penggunaan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Tipe Brown dalam Meramalkan Pergerakan Kasus Positif Covid-19 di Kota Padang Nurul Umiati Husna; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 5, No 4 (2020): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstract — Covid-19 is an infectious disease that caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus. This virus can cause the patient gotten respiratory problems, such as Pneumonis, SARS, and MERS. The amout of Covid-19 cases have been increased everyday. Therefore, it is necessary to do forecasting for the movement of positive Covid-19 cases in Padang City for the next few days. The purpose of this research was to find out the form of a model for the movement of positive Covid-19 cases in Padang City and to know the results of the movement of positive Covid-19 cases in Padang City. The type of this research is applied research. The method that used in this research is Triple Exponential Smooting Brown Type with the parameter of α that minimize the value of MSE was 0,29. The results of this research showing the movement of positive Covid-19 in Padang City from August 15, 2020 to August 19, 2020 was 907, 933, 960, 987, and 1016 cases. Keywords — Covid-19, The movement of positive cases, Forecasting, Triple Exponential Smoothing Brown Type.

Faktor - faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ketidakmerataan Jumlah Penduduk di Indonesia Menggunakan Analisis Faktor Thesya Josevin Wardani; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 4, No 4 (2019): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstract – Indonesia is the most populous country in the world after China, India and the United States. But Indonesia's large population is not followed by an even distribution of the population. Concentration of the population which is mostly fixed in big cities that have negative impact on the environment and the emergence of various social problems. Therefore, an effort is needed to find out which factors influence the inequality of population in Indonesia. This research was conducted with aim to get the model of factor analysis and factors that influence the inequality of population of Indonesia. This type of research is applied research. The data used1 was obtained from the SUSENAS Indonesian Statistics Agency (BPS) program in 2017 which were analyzed using factor analysis. Based on the research1 results obtained models of factor analysis and four factors that affect the unequal population in Indonesia, namely facilities and infrastructuries factors, environmental and housing factors, population independence factor, and population birth factor. Keywords: Factor Analysis, Population Amount, Inequality Problems

Optimasi Perencanaan Produksi Kerupuk Bawang Fajar Menggunakan Metode Goal Programming Refina Rintani; Arnellis Arnellis; Dony Permana
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 3, No 1 (2018): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstract – This study discusses the optimization of production planning . Optimation is done by using goal programming method on the product of Kerupuk Bawang Fajar in Indarung Padang. Problems that occur in this business is less optimal implementation of onion cracker production. The production process is not through careful planning. So often the excess of raw materials. This research’s purpose is to know the model for production planning and to know the result of production planning optimization on Kerupuk Bawang Fajar by using goal programming method. The form of goal programming model is an extension of linear programming, it’s just there are deviasional variables on the function constraints that serve to accommodate the deviation of the completion of the goal to be achieved. The optimal production of Kerupuk Bawang Fajar is the original garlic cracker as much as 792 packs / day, spicy onion cracker as much as 130 packs / day, carrot flavor cracker as much as 151 packs / day, potato garlic crackers as much as 130 packs / day, and purple sweet potato crackers as much as 90 packs / day. With profit maximization of Rp. 12.167.291 and a minimization costs of Rp 3.373.378.

Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Angka Kematian Akibat Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas di Sumatera Barat Menggunakan Analisis Jalur Hadiyanti Riskha; Arnellis Arnellis; Yenni Kurniawati
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 4, No 2 (2019): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstract – Traffic accidents are a problem that needs serious attention given the enormous losses incurred. West Sumatra is one of the provinces in Indonesia which has a fairly high accident rate. The problems of this study are the factors that influence significantly the mortality rate from traffic accidents in West Sumatra as well as how big the influence of these factors on the level of fatalities in West Sumatra. Data taken from the 2009-2012 in the Central Bureau of Statistics and West Sumatra police data. This research method using path analysis, a method that can analyze the factors that directly and indirectly to the death rate from traffic accidents. Factors that influence the mortality rate due to accidents directly is the number of accidents, while the factors that affect poverty indirectly the number of violations and the roads are damaged.Keywords – path analysis, accident, factors that affect accident.

Model Matematika SIK Penyebaran Penyakit Kaki Gajah (Filariasis) Wellni Praliska; Arnellis Arnellis; Suherman Suherman
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 4, No 4 (2019): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstrak –The spread of parasitic diseases is a significant threat in the areas of health, social, and economic. One example of the spread of infectious diseases caused by parasites is elephantiasis disease. Elephantiasis disease is an infectious disease caused by filarial worms with the type of Brugaria malayi, Brugaria timori, and Whucereria bancrofti. Elephantiasis disease makes the mosquito as a vector in the spread. To model the spread of the elephantiasis disease (Filariasis), an analysis of the theory that is relevant to the issue is conducted. Furthermore, forming a mathematical model, and then specifying a fixed point and analyse the stability of a fixed point, as well as the interpretation of the results of the analysing of the stability of a fixed point of a mathematical model of the spread of the disease to the elephantiasis disease (Filariasis).Keywords – Mathematics Models, Filariasis, stability theory

Penggunaan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Tipe Brown dalam Meramalkan Pergerakan Kasus Positif Covid-19 di Kota Padang Nurul Umiati Husna; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 5, No 3 (2020): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstract — Covid-19 is an infectious disease that caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus. This virus can cause the patient gotten respiratory problems, such as Pneumonis, SARS, and MERS. The amout of Covid-19 cases have been increased everyday. Therefore, it is necessary to do forecasting for the movement of positive Covid-19 cases in Padang City for the next few days. The purpose of this research was to find out the form of a model for the movement of positive Covid-19 cases in Padang City and to know the results of the movement of positive Covid-19 cases in Padang City. The type of this research is applied research. The method that used in this research is Triple Exponential Smooting Brown Type with the parameter of that minimize the value of MSE was 0,29. The results of this research showing the movement of positive Covid-19 in Padang City from August 15, 2020 to August 19, 2020 was 907, 933, 960, 987, and 1016 cases. Keywords — Covid-19, The movement of positive cases, Forecasting, Triple Exponential Smoothing Brown Type.

Penerapan Metode ARIMA untuk Meramalkan Harga Emas Terhadap Mata Uang Dolar Amerika Serikat NA Mentacem; Arnellis Arnellis; Yenni Kurniawati
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 4, No 1 (2019): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstract–Gold is one of precious metals group which has high value and often to be used as a investment object. Meanwhile, United States Dollar (USD) is the most stable currency among all of currencies in the world at this time. Gold and USD are the best investment object for keep our wealth from inflation. Based on these facts, it is necessary to forecast the price of gold in USD. The forecasting method that is used in this research is ARIMA method. The goal of this research is to get the prediction of gold price in USD in the future based on the price of gold from year 2009 to 2016 .The result of this research indicates that the ARIMA (1,1,1) model as the best model for forecasting. The complete equation is. Based on this model, the gold price in 2017 is going to increase. The prediction of gold’s price in January 2017 is USD 1,128 for every an ounce gold, and the price of gold in December is predicted will be at the point USD 1,171 for an ounce. Keywords–Gold Price, United States Dollar, ARIMA, Invesment

Model Matematika Rantai Makanan Tiga Spesies Yongki Sukma; Media Rosha; Arnellis Arnellis
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 2, No 1 (2014): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Abstract –– Predation interaction between two species have been described in Lotka-Volterra mathematical model. But in an ecosystem, predation interaction involving more than two species. In this study will be discussed predation interaction involving three species in a food chain. Obtained mathematical model will be analyzed by finding the stability of fixed point, the stability of fixed point will be analyzed with Routh-Hurwitz criterion. The model consists of three differential equations representing each species. The model has four fixed points, the fourth fixed point is stable, the first fixed point is not stable but the third and second fixed point are stable with certain conditions. The result of analisys show that three populations does not become extinct if product of species I growth rate with spesies III growth rate is greater than product of species I death rate with species III death rate. Keywords –– Food Chain, Fixed Point, Routh-Hurwitz

Co-Authors Afifah Zafirah Afridho Afnanda Ali Asmar Aly Muhammad Zhafran Anna Cesaria Aulia Rindu Permata Azwar Ananda Defri Ahmad Dewi Safitri Dony Permana Ega Rizka Wahyuni Elita Zusti Jamaan Fajar Shodik Hadiyanti Riskha Hendra Syarifuddin KURNIA SRI HAMDAYANI Lidia Bartasari Lovira Puspita Mayang Sugara Media Rosha Meira Parma Dewi Minora Longgom Nasution Muhammad Subhan Mukhaiyar Mukhaiyar NA Mentacem Nonong Amalita Nur Suci Nurainun Pulungan Nurul Umiati Husna Nurul Umiati Husna Rafki Nasuha Ismail Raudhatul Jannah A.M Refenia Usman Refina Rintani Resi Arsiva Riry Sriningsih Rurisman Rurisman Saddam Al Aziz Septri Novita Suherman Suherman Thesya Josevin Wardani Wellni Praliska Yenni Kurniawati Yerizon Yerizon Yessy Nazir Yetty Zainil Yongki Sukma Zulfadri Zulfadri

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