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RIO ANDRIYAT KRISDIAWAN
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Journal : International Journal Administration, Business

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Prediction Analysis of Buled Bread Production Using Holt's Exponential Smoothing Budianto, Heru; Darmawan, Erlan; Krisdiawan, Rio Andriyat; Maulana, Yasir
International Journal Administration, Business & Organization Vol 5 No 2sp (2024): IJABO
Publisher : Asosiasi Ahli Administrasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61242/ijabo.24.415

Abstract

This research aim to Analysis of Buled Bread Production Using Holt's Exponential Smoothing. The number of loaves produced by Buled bread still uses estimates, causing the number of loaves produced to be excessive. The excess number of loaves produced increases production costs, which can cause losses. The method broadcast in forecasting is Holt's exponential smoothing because the data displayed shows an increasing trend that is not affected by the season. The calculation process uses Microsoft Excel and add-ins. The results of the calculation produce a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 3.58% so that it can be used to forecast production data in the following month. The value of α = 0.8808 and the value of β = 0.042 are the best values ​​based on calculations using the Solver Add-in. Based on these parameter values, predictive data is produced for each week in the following month.
Co-Authors . Wachjuni A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Abda, Abda Naufal Zabbar Ade Kurniawan Agris Kurniawan Aji Permana Aji Permana, Aji Amalia Asikin, Nida Amir Hamzah Azahra, Nur Anisa Darsanto Dede Husen Dede Irawan Dede Sunarto Dessi Hermawaty Dias Eka Prayuda Diki Pahrilah Elda Candra Galih Elvan Praramdani Encep Sayid Amrulloh Erik Kurniadi Erlan Darmawan fitra imaniar Haqmi, Fahrul Heri Herwanto Heru Budianto Herwanto, Heri Ikhsan Khaeruddin Indraguna BAS Iwan Lesmana Iwan Lesmana Kusumo Setyo Aryogi Laksono Trisnantoro Lili Karmela Fitriani Lutfi Rohmawati Maulana, Arip Rahman Mochamad Anggi Zaelani Mughits, Muhammad Choirul Muhammad Abd Azis Muhammad Abdullah Fadli Muhammad Bahrul Lutfianto Nida Amalia Asikin Nida Amalia Nasikin Nugraha, Gugun Rizal Nunu Nugraha Nunu Nugraha Nur Alamsyah Nura'isyah, Ninda Pratama, Asep Sabilah Ramdoni Ramdoni Rasul, Muh Abi Regita Novianti Ridwan Alamsyah Rio Priantama Rio Priantama Rohmana, Muhamad Faza Rohmawati, Lutfi Rosman, Yoga Febriana Sanhari, Yogi sherly gina supratman Sugeng Supriyadi supratman, sherly gina Suseno, Endra Sutarbi, Tata Tata Sutabri Tito Sugiharto Tito Sugiharto Tri Ramdhany Yanti, Pani Puja Yasir Maulana Yati Nurhayati Yohanes Bowo Widodo Yulyanto Yulyanto Zafira Fatsya