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SIMULATION STUDY OF HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR SMALL AREA ESTIMATION WITH MEASUREMENT ERROR Latifah, Leli; Sadik, Kusman; Indahwati, Indahwati
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 4 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp2059-2070

Abstract

In small area estimation (SAE), the auxiliary variables used are commonly derived from registration data such as census and administrative data. It is assumed that the auxiliary variables are available for all areas. The limited availability of auxiliary variables can be an obstacle in SAE. The additional information from the survey can be alternative data, but it is assumed that the auxiliary variables will contain measurement errors. This study conducted a simulation of data that aims to handle when auxiliary variables are measured with errors. Two simulations were studied with some scenarios to the percentage area where the auxiliary variable is measured with error and scenarios to the generated auxiliary variables. Compare four methods: direct estimation, Fay-Herriot Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (EBLUP-FH), Ybarra-Lohr SAE with measurement error (SaeME), and Hierarchical Bayesian SaeME. The results show that, in both the simulation study, the Hierarchical Bayesian SaeME method gives a smaller the EMSE value than the other two methods when auxiliary information is measured with error.
MODELING THE INCIDENCE OF MALNUTRITION IN BOGOR REGENCY USING ZERO-INFLATED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL MIXED EFFECT MODEL Sirodj, Dwi Agustin Nuriani; Sadik, Kusman; Kurnia, Anang
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp0961-0972

Abstract

Modeling response variables in the form of count data generally uses a model based on the Poisson distribution. However, some conditions, such as the presence of excess zero, can be found in the data that result in overdispersion, which will have an impact on the resulting variance in the model. In this paper, three approaches, namely the Poisson Mixed Model, the Negative Binomial (NB) Mixed Model, and the Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) Mixed Model, are used to model the incidence of malnutrition in Bogor Regency. The data used in this study are secondary data sourced from the West Java open data website. Based on the results of data analysis, it appears that the ZINB Mixed Model method is a method capable of accommodating random effects, overdispersion, and excess zero in modeling malnutrition in Bogor Regency. Variables that significantly affect the occurrence of malnutrition cases in villages in Bogor Regency include the Number of Children Weighed Routinely Every Month, Number of Children Measured for Length and Height Twice a Year, Number of Children under 12 Months Old Who Received Complete Basic Immunization, Number of Posyandu (Integrated Health Post), and Number of Parents/Caregivers Participating in Monthly Parenting (PAUD).
Comparison of LASSO, Ridge, and Elastic Net Regularization with Balanced Bagging Classifier Nisrina Az-Zahra, Putri; Sadik, Kusman; Suhaeni, Cici; Mohamad Soleh, Agus
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 2 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i2pp287-296

Abstract

Predicting Drug-Induced Autoimmunity (DIA) is crucial in pharmaceutical safety assessment, as early identification of compounds with autoimmune risk can prevent adverse drug reactions and improve patient outcomes. Classification analysis often faces challenges when the number of predictor variables exceeds the number of observations or when high correlations among predictors lead to multicollinearity and overfitting. Regularization methods, such as Ridge Regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), and Elastic-Net, help stabilize parameter estimation and improve model interpretability. This study focuses on building a binary classification model to predict the risk of DIA using 196 molecular descriptors derived from chemical compound structures. To address class imbalance in the response variable, the Balanced Bagging Classifier (BBC) is combined with regularized logistic regression models. Elastic Net + BBC outperforms other models with the highest accuracy (0.825), followed closely by LASSO + BBC and Ridge + BBC (both 0.816). This integration not only improves classification accuracy but also enhances generalization and the reliable detection of minority class instances, supporting the early identification of autoimmune risks in drug discovery.
EVALUATING RANDOM FOREST AND XGBOOST FOR BANK CUSTOMER CHURN PREDICTION ON IMBALANCED DATA USING SMOTE AND SMOTE-ENN Andespa, Reyuli; Sadik, Kusman; Suhaeni, Cici; Soleh, Agus M
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 18, No 1 (2025): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.18.1.25-36

Abstract

The banking industry faces significant challenges in retaining customers, as churn can critically affect both revenue and reputation. This study introduces a robust churn prediction framework by comparing the performance of XGBoost and Random Forest algorithms under imbalanced data conditions. The novelty of this research lies in integrating the SMOTE and SMOTE-ENN techniques with machine learning algorithms to enhance model performance and reliability on highly imbalanced datasets. Unlike conventional approaches that rely solely on oversampling or undersampling, this study demonstrates that the hybrid combination of XGBoost and SMOTE provides superior predictive accuracy, stability, and efficiency. Hyperparameter optimization using GridSearchCV was conducted to identify the most effective parameter configurations for both algorithms. Model performance was evaluated using the F1-Score and Area Under the Curve (AUC). The results indicate that XGBoost with SMOTE achieved the best performance, with an F1-Score of 0.8730 and an AUC of 0.9828, showing an optimal balance between precision and recall. Feature importance analysis identified Months_Inactive_12_mon, Total_Trans_Amt, and Total_Relationship_Count as the most influential predictors. Overall, this approach outperforms traditional resampling and modeling techniques, providing practical insights for data-driven customer retention strategies in the banking industry.
Image Classification of Rice Leaf Diseases with KNN Based Model using Stratified-KCV Rizqi, Tasya Anisah; Anwar Fitrianto; Kusman Sadik
Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Vol 9 No 5 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Ikatan Ahli Informatika Indonesia (IAII)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29207/resti.v9i5.6590

Abstract

Rice is a staple food for people in the world, especially Indonesia. The rice harvest decreased in 2023, reducing harvest productivity and causing losses for farmers. Rice cultivation is often affected by diseases that hinder rice harvests. SKCV is a resampling method that performs more accurately because it can ensure that class frequencies are maintained. RGB and VGG16 are image processing methods that extract images into numerics. RGB image extraction is done by taking the average value of the red, green, and blue layers while VGG16 image extraction is done by taking the value of visual pattern features such as edges, textures, and object shapes. In this study, rice leaf diseases were classified using KNN-based models, including KNN, WKNN, CDNN, and ECDNN. This classification was performed to determine which method had better performance using SKCV and comparing the results of RGB and VGG16 image extraction. This classification also produces a comparison of SKCV and KCV results to determine the best resampling performance. The results of the analysis that have been carried out show that the ECDNN method produces the highest accuracy of 81.20% in classifying rice leaf diseases using SKCV with VGG16 extraction followed by CDNN and WKNN each at 68.80%, and KNN at 56.20% while RGB extraction only produces an accuracy of 43.8% using ECDNN and CDNN, 56.20% using WKNN, and 50% using KNN. The results of this rice leaf diseases classification analysis are expected to help farmers in increasing rice production in Indonesia.
N-Level Structural Equation Models (nSEM): The Effect of Sample Size on the Parameter Estimation in Latent Random-Intercept Model Eminita, Viarti; Saefuddin, Asep; Sadik, Kusman; Syafitri, Utami Dyah
InPrime: Indonesian Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics Vol. 6 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/inprime.v6i1.38914

Abstract

Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling (MSEM) is claimed to address hierarchical data structures and latent response variables, but it becomes unstable with an increasing number of levels. N-Level SEM (nSEM) is an SEM framework designed to handle a growing number of levels in the model. The nSEM framework uses the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method for parameter estimation, which requires a large sample size and correct model specification. Therefore, it is essential to consider the necessary minimal sample size to ensure accurate and efficient parameter estimation in the nSEM model. This study examined how sample size affects the performance of parameter estimators in nSEM models. We propose a method to evaluate the effect of many environments to estimate the results of factor loadings and environmental variance produced by the model. In addition, we also assess the impact of environment size on the estimation results of factor loadings and individual variance. The results were then applied to actual data on student mathematics learning motivation in Depok. The findings show that neither the number of environments nor the size of the environment affects the performance of fixed parameter estimation in the nSEM model. nSEM indicates excellent performance in estimating environmental variance at level 2 when the number of environments increases. Conversely, increasing the size of the environment worsens the performance of estimating individual variance parameters. Overall, the nSEM framework for the latent random-intercept (LatenRI) model performs well with increasing sample sizes. The application data on LatenRI models show almost similar estimation results.Keywords: hierarchical data; latent random intercept model; multilevel structural equation modeling; n-level structural equation modeling.AbstrakMultilevel Structural Equation Modeling (MSEM) diklaim dapat mengatasi struktur data hierarki dan variabel respons laten, namun menjadi tidak stabil dengan bertambahnya jumlah level. N-Level SEM (nSEM) adalah kerangka kerja SEM yang dirancang untuk menangani semakin banyak level dalam model. Kerangka kerja nSEM menggunakan metode Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) untuk estimasi parameter, yang memerlukan ukuran sampel yang besar dan spesifikasi model yang benar. Oleh karena itu, penting untuk mempertimbangkan ukuran sampel minimal yang diperlukan untuk memastikan estimasi parameter yang akurat dan efisien dalam model nSEM. Studi ini menguji bagaimana ukuran sampel mempengaruhi kinerja penduga parameter dalam model nSEM. Kami mengusulkan metode untuk mengevaluasi pengaruh banyak lingkungan dalam memperkirakan hasil factor loadings  dan varians lingkungan yang dihasilkan oleh model. Selain itu, kami juga menilai dampak ukuran lingkungan terhadap hasil estimasi factor loadings dan varians individu. Hasilnya kemudian diterapkan pada data aktual motivasi belajar matematika siswa di Depok. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa baik jumlah lingkungan maupun ukuran lingkungan tidak mempengaruhi kinerja estimasi parameter tetap pada model nSEM. nSEM menunjukkan kinerja yang sangat baik dalam memperkirakan varians lingkungan pada level 2 ketika jumlah lingkungan meningkat. Sebaliknya, peningkatan ukuran lingkungan akan memperburuk kinerja pendugaan parameter varians individu. Secara keseluruhan, kerangka nSEM untuk model intersepsi acak laten (LatenRI) bekerja dengan baik dengan meningkatnya ukuran sampel. Data penerapan model LatenRI menunjukkan hasil estimasi yang hampir serupa.Kata Kunci: data hirarki; model intersep acak laten; model persamaan structural multilevel; model persamaan structural n-level. 2020MSC: 62D99
Comparison of ARIMA and GRU Models for High-Frequency Time Series Forecasting. Ridwan, Mochamad; Sadik, Kusman; Afendi, Farit Mochamad
Scientific Journal of Informatics Vol 10, No 3 (2023): August 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/sji.v10i3.45965

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to assess the efficacy of ARIMA and GRU models in forecasting high-frequency stock price data, specifically minute-level stock data from HIMBARA banks. In time series analysis, time series data exhibit interesting interdependence among observations. Despite its popularity in time series forecasting, the ARIMA model has limitations in capturing complicated nonlinear patterns. Forecasting high-frequency data is becoming more popular as technology advances and more high-frequency data becomes available.Methods: In this study, we compare the ARIMA and GRU models in forecasting minute-level stock prices of HIMBARA banks. The data used consists of 62,921 minute-level stock data points for each bank in the HIMBARA group, collected in the year 2022. The GRU model was chosen because it is capable of capturing complex nonlinear patterns in time series data. Each method's predicting performance is assessed using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) statistic.Results: In terms of forecasting accuracy, the GRU model outperforms the ARIMA model. The GRU model achieves a MAPE of 0.77% for BMRI stock, while the ARIMA model achieves a MAPE of 4.09%. The GRU model predicts a MAPE of 0.34% for BBRI stock, while the ARIMA model predicts a MAPE of 3.02%. For BBNI stock, the GRU model obtains a MAPE of 0.63%, while the ARIMA model achieves a MAPE of 1.52%. The GRU model achieves a MAPE of 0.58% for BBTN stock, while the ARIMA model achieves a MAPE of 6.2%.Novelty: In terms of minute-level time series data modeling, research in Indonesia has been limited. This study adds a new perspective to the discussion by comparing two modeling approaches: the traditional ARIMA model and the sophisticated deep learning GRU model, both of which are applied to high-frequency data. Beyond the present scope, there are several promising future directions to pursue, such as anticipating intraday stock fluctuations. This unexplored zone not only contributes to the field of financial modeling but also has the ability to uncover intricate patterns in minute-level data, an area that has not been extensively studied in the Indonesian context.
Comparison of Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine on Mixed Categorical and Continuous Independent Variables for COVID-19 Patients Data Haikal, Husnul Aris; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Sadik, Kusman; Efriwati, Efriwati
Scientific Journal of Informatics Vol 11, No 1 (2024): February 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/sji.v11i1.48565

Abstract

Purpose: Numerous factors can affect the duration of COVID-19 recovery. One method involves utilizing natural herbal medication. This study seeks to determine the variables influencing the duration of COVID-19 recovery and to compare discriminant analysis and support vector machine models using COVID-19 patient data from West Sumatra.Methods: Two data mining methods, Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine with different types of kernels (linear, polynomial, and radial basis function), were employed to categorize the time of COVID-19 recovery in this work. The study utilized 428 data points, with 75% allocated for training data and 25% for testing data. The independent factors were evaluated by determining the selection variables' information value (IV) to gauge their influence on the dependent variable. Data resampling techniques were employed to tackle the problem of data imbalance. This study employs data resampling techniques, including undersampling, oversampling, and SMOTE. The balancing accuracy of Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine was examined.Result: The Discriminant Analysis with SMOTE achieved a balanced accuracy of 66.50%, outperforming the linear kernel Support Vector Machine with SMOTE, which had a balanced accuracy of 63.20% in this dataset.Novelty: This study assessed the novelty, originality, and value by comparing Discriminant Analysis and SVM algorithms with categorical and continuous independent variables. This research explores techniques for managing imbalanced data using undersampling, oversampling, and SMOTE, with variable selection based on information value assessment. 
Simultaneous inference for empirical best predictors in generalized linear mixed models: A poverty study in West Java SAHAMONY, NUR FITRIYANI; SADIK, KUSMAN; KURNIA, ANANG
Jurnal Natural Volume 25 Number 3, October 2025
Publisher : Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Accurate poverty mapping at the district and municipal levels remains challenging due to small sample sizes in household surveys, which often result in unstable direct estimates. To address this issue, this study employs microdata from the 2023 National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) to estimate household-level poverty proportions across 27 districts and municipalities in West Java Province using a binomial Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) combined with the Empirical Best Predictor (EBP) and Simultaneous Confidence Intervals (SCI). The GLMM framework captures household characteristics and random area effects to account for spatial heterogeneity. Three SCI approachesBonferroni correction, Bootstrap-t, and the Simes procedurewere implemented to evaluate EBP uncertainty while controlling the family-wise error rate. Results reveal substantial disparities, with Tasikmalaya (21.7%), Bandung Barat (15.5%), and Cianjur (12.8%) consistently above the provincial average of (6.8%), while urban areas such as Cimahi, Bekasi, and Depok report poverty rates below 2%. All methods achieved full empirical coverage (ECP = 100%), although interval widths differed: Bonferroni produced the widest intervals (AIW = 44.99), Bootstrap-t yielded the narrowest and most efficient (AIW = 29.16), and Simes provided intermediate but highly consistent results (AIW = 33.24). These findings underscore the methodological importance of integrating GLMM, EBP, and SCI for small area estimation while offering practical insights for evidence-based policy development and poverty reduction strategies in Indonesia.
Sentiment Analysis of Tokopedia Customer Reviews Using BiLSTM and IndoBERT with Comparative Analysis of Preprocessing and Labeling Methods Anadra, Rahmi; Wijayanto, Hari; Sadik, Kusman
International Journal of Advances in Data and Information Systems Vol. 6 No. 3 (2025): December 2025 - International Journal of Advances in Data and Information Syste
Publisher : Indonesian Scientific Journal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59395/ijadis.v6i3.1458

Abstract

This study addresses key challenges in Indonesian sentiment analysis related to preprocessing, labeling strategies, and class imbalance. It compares the performance of BiLSTM and IndoBERT using user reviews collected from Tokopedia. The dataset was manually and automatically labeled, then processed under three preprocessing schemes. Both models were trained with tuned hyperparameters and imbalance-handling techniques and evaluated through twenty rounds of stratified five-fold cross-validation. Performance was assessed using balanced accuracy and F1-score. IndoBERT achieved the highest results, with balanced accuracy up to 0.85 and F1-scores up to 0.83, while BiLSTM reached balanced accuracy up to 0.78 and F1-scores up to 0.76. Applying class weight and focal loss improved model performance by approximately 2% to 11% over the baseline. BiLSTM demonstrated greater training efficiency, requiring only 1 to 2.5 minutes per epoch, compared with IndoBERT’s 2.6 to 3.6 minutes. Although manual labeling remained superior in capturing contextual nuance and emotional cues, GPT-based labeling showed strong agreement with the human annotations. A four-way ANOVA revealed that all main factors and several interactions significantly influenced classification outcomes. Overall, BiLSTM provides faster training efficiency, whereas IndoBERT delivers higher predictive accuracy.
Co-Authors . Erfiani A.Tuti Rumiati Aam Alamudi ACHMAD FAUZAN Adib Roisilmi Abdullah Agus M Soleh Agus M Soleh Agus M. Soleh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agus Muhammad Saleh Ahmad Rifai Nasution Aji Hamim Wigena Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Akbar Rizki Akbar Rizki Akmala Firdausi Amalia, Rahmatin Nur Anadra, Rahmi Ananda Shafira Anang Kurnia Andespa, Reyuli Andi Okta Fengki ASEP SAEFUDDIN Astari, Reka Agustia Astari, Reka Agustia Asysta Amalia Pasaribu Aulya Permatasari Azka Ubaidillah Bagus Sartono Baiq Dian Arianingsih Budi Susetyo Budi Susetyo Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Dewi Zulyani Pomalingo Dhita Elsha Pangestika Dian Handayani Dito, Gerry Alfa Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Efriwati Efriwati Embay Rohaeti Eriski Isnanda Erwan Setiawan Evita Purnaningrum Fahira, Fani FARDILLA RAHMAWATI Farit Mochamad Afendi Fitrianto, Anwar Fradha Intan Arassah Freya, Wa Ode Rona Gede Awantara Gerry Alfa Dito Haikal, Husnul Aris Hari Wijayanto Hasnataeni, Yunia Hazan Azhari Zainuddin Hermawati, Neni I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Indahwati Iqbal, Teuku Achmad Jefita Resti Sari Khairi A N Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Khusnul Khotimah Kusni Rohani Rumahorbo Latifah, Leli Lili Puspita Rahayu Logananta Puja Kusuma Logananta Puja Kusuma Lukmanul Hakim M Soleh, Agus Mochamad Ridwan Mochamad Ridwan, Mochamad Mohammad Masjkur Muh Nur Fiqri Adham Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Yusran Mulianto Raharjo Naima Rakhsyanda Naufalia Alfiryal Nisrina Az-Zahra, Putri Nur Khamidah Nurhidayah Nurhidayah Nusar Hajarisman Panji Lokajaya Arifa Parwati Sofan Purnama Sari Rifqi Aulya Rahman Rita Rahmawati Rizaldi Boer Rizki, Akbar Rizqi, Tasya Anisah ROCHYATI ROCHYATI Sabrina Adnin Kamila Sahamony, Nur Fitriyani Satriyo Wibowo Sentana Putra I Gusti Ngurah Siregar, Jodi jhouranda Siti Aisyah SITI NURADILLA Siti Raudlah Sitti Nurhaliza Soleh, Agus M Sri Kustiara Suhaeni, Cici Sundari, Marta Supriatin, Febriyani Eka Tendi Ferdian Diputra Titin Suhartini Titin Suhartini, Titin Tri Wahyuni Uswatun Hasanah Utami Dyah Syafitri Viarti Eminita Widhiyanti Nugraheni Yenni Angraini Yenni Kurniawati Yuli Eka Putri Zafira Fakhriyah