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I Nyoman Pujawan
Department Of Industrial And System Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya
Aerospace Engineering Arts Humanities Automotive Engineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Toward a More Dynamic Supplier Evaluation: A Time Series Forecasting Perspective : Membangun Upaya Evaluasi Pemasok yang Lebih Dinamis: Perspektif Peramalan Deret Waktu Fikri, Muhammad Naufal; Pujawan, I Nyoman; Karningsih, Putu Dana
Indonesian Journal of Innovation Studies Vol. 27 No. 2 (2026): April
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21070/ijins.v27i2.1931

Abstract

General Background: Procurement continuity is essential for maintaining healthcare service operations, where supplier failures can disrupt service quality. Specific Background: This study evaluates supplier reliability in provincial government healthcare facilities in East Java, Indonesia, using three key performance metrics: on-time delivery (OTD), quantity fulfillment, and order lead time, based on 2023 contract data from 13 pharmaceutical suppliers. Knowledge Gap: Traditional supplier evaluation is often static, limiting the ability to detect temporal performance shifts and future reliability risks. Aims: This research aims to develop a dynamic supplier evaluation framework by integrating time series forecasting methods. Results: Historical performance showed moderate–high reliability (OTD ≈ 80.04%, quantity fulfillment ≈ 79.3%, lead time ≈ 20 days). Forecasting with exponential smoothing and Theta methods indicated declining OTD and quantity fulfillment, alongside improved lead time performance (≈ 10 days). Forecast errors were MAE ≈ 25% and RMSE ≈ 32% for service metrics, and MAE ≈ 8 days and RMSE ≈ 9 days for lead time. Novelty: The study advances supplier evaluation by combining multimetrical reliability assessment with forecasting-based temporal detection, moving beyond one-time performance scoring. Implications: This dynamic approach supports healthcare procurement managers in prioritizing resilient suppliers, adapting sourcing strategies, and mitigating operational risks in uncertain environments. Highlights: Supplier performance exhibited fluctuating reliability patterns across monthly contract periods. Forecasting results revealed decreasing delivery and fulfillment rates with shorter shipment durations. Service compliance metrics were strongly correlated, while lead time remained relatively independent. Keywords:  Public Healthcare Procurement, Supplier Evaluation, Supplier Performance Forecasting, Supplier Reliability
Critical Success Factor terhadap Penerapan Sustainable Supply Chain pada Sektor Perikanan dengan Pendekatan PCA-ISM Martani, Nivo; Pujawan, I Nyoman
Factory Jurnal Industri, Manajemen dan Rekayasa Sistem Industri Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026): Edisi April
Publisher : Ilmu Bersama Center

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56211/factory.v4i3.1592

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi dan memetakan critical success factors (CSF) terhadap penerapan Sustainable Supply Chain Management (SSCM) pada sektor perikanan di Jawa Timur. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif eksploratif dengan data primer berupa kuesioner kepada responden berpengalaman di industri perikanan dan rantai pasok (N = 19), yang terdiri dari manajer operasional, akademisi, dan birokrat terkait sektor kelautan dan perikanan, serta expert judgement untuk tahap ISM. Data diuji validitas dan reliabilitas; seluruh indikator pada dimensi ekonomi, lingkungan, dan sosial dinyatakan valid (sig. < 0,05) dan reliabel (Cronbach’s Alpha: 0,762; 0,865; 0,781). Analisis Principal Component Analysis (PCA) dengan rotasi Varimax mereduksi 24 indikator menjadi tujuh faktor utama yang secara kumulatif menjelaskan 82,168% variasi data, yaitu: Environmental Management and Green Operations, Cost Control and Operational Efficiency, Price Stability and Supply Chain Transparency, Occupational Safety and Workforce Capability, Green Policy and Emission Reduction, Green Supply Chain Integration, serta Energy Efficiency and Post-Harvest Optimization. Selanjutnya, hasil Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) menunjukkan bahwa Green Policy and Emission Reduction berperan sebagai faktor penggerak utama (driver) pada level dasar, sedangkan Price Stability and Supply Chain Transparency berada pada level teratas sebagai faktor yang paling dipengaruhi. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa penguatan kebijakan hijau dan pengurangan emisi menjadi fondasi prioritas dalam meningkatkan keberhasilan implementasi SSCM pada sektor perikanan. Model ISM yang dihasilkan dapat menjadi panduan strategis bagi pengambil kebijakan di sektor perikanan Jawa Timur dalam menentukan urutan prioritas intervensi yang tepat guna mendorong implementasi SSCM secara sistematis dan berkelanjutan.
Co-Authors Agus Wahyudi Ahmad Rusdiansyah Alexander, Dean Anis Rostika Sari Arvitrida, Niniet Indah Boy Cahyo Prihanto Budijati, Siti Mahsanah Djaya, Yansor Djumilah Zain Dody Hartanto Erly Ekayanti Rosyida Felecia Felecia Felecia Felecia Fikri, Muhammad Naufal Gan, Shu-San Hayati Mukti Asih Heri Cahyono I Gede Agus Widyadana I Gede Agus Widyadana Ihsan Prasetya Irwansyah Iwan Vanany Lestari, Purbo Martani, Nivo Nani Kurniati Petrus Setya Murdapa Putera, Rizki Revianto Putu Dana Karningsih Raja Zuraidah Raja Mohd Ras Redy Ardiansyah Resista Vikaliana Savitri, Niken Anggraini Stefanus Eko Wiratno Suparno Surachman Surachman Wakhid Ahmad Jauhari Wakhid Ahmad Jauhari Yonathan, Maykel