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Perbandingan Metode Exponential Smoothing Event Based dengan Metode Winter Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Harga Cabai Merah di Kota Medan Sari, Bella Puspita; Siregar, Rosman
FARABI: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 6 No 2 (2023): FARABI
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika FKIP UNIVA Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47662/farabi.v6i2.451

Abstract

Dalam upaya untuk membuat keputusan yang lebih baik, peramalan adalah teknik yang digunakan untuk mengukur ketidakpastian masa depan. Musim atau kejadian tertentu dapat berdampak pada harga cabai merah. Metode Exponential Smoothing Event Based dan metode Winter Exponential Smoothing digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi special event yang berdampak pada prediksi harga cabai merah. Strategi yang optimal untuk digunakan adalah yang menghasilkan angka Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) terendah. Data harga cabai merah Januari 2018 sampai Desember 2021 digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Pendekatan Winter exponential smoothing, dengan nilai =0,9, =0,1, =0,9 dan MAPE 3,1%, adalah yang terbaik, menurut perkiraan yang dihitung dengan bantuan Ms. Excel.
Optimization of Crude Palm Oil Distribution Costs in PT. Perkebunan Nusantara III Using Vogel's Approximation Method, Russel Approximation Method and Stepping Stone Method Nadya Pratiwi; Siregar, Rosman
Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021): Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (692.36 KB) | DOI: 10.32734/jomte.v1i1.6866

Abstract

PT. Perkebunan Nusantara III is an Indonesian State-Owned Enterprise engaged in oil palm and rubber plantations. The company is headquartered in Medan, North Sumatra. In general, the distribution process of CPO is one of the most important aspects to be planned, because it will greatly affect the overall cost efficiency of the project. The increase in project costs is often caused by a CPO distribution process that is not optimal. The method used to solve the distribution optimization problem is Vogel's Approximation Method and Russell's Approximation Method to determine the initial solution and optimization test using the Stepping Stone method. From the results of the calculation of the Vogel's Approximation Method method for the initial completion and continued by using the Stepping Stone Method is the method that gives optimal results. For the final settlement, a minimum fee of Rp. 34,417.014,501.
Forecasting the Production Results of Medicine Horticultural Plants (Biofarmacies) in North Sumatra in 2020 and 2021 Using Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Method Sinaga, Lia Herna; Siregar, Rosman
Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2022): Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (657.779 KB) | DOI: 10.32734/jomte.v1i2.7333

Abstract

Indonesian medicinal plants have a high contribution to world drug production. North Sumatra is one of provinces that produces a variety of traditional medicinal plants. The data in this study is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra which is data on the amount of production of medicinal horicultural plants (biopharmaceuticals) from 2007-2019 using the method Double Exponential Smoothing Brown. The purpose of this research is to get the parameters α and shape forecasting equation that can be used to estimate the amount of production of the total production of horticultural crops medicin from 2006 to 2018 by using the size of the precision of the forecasting Mean absoulte Percentage Error in the method of Double Exponential Smoothing Brown. The parameter α is best used to predict the amount of horticultural crop production of medicinal was 0.24 with a yield forecasting in 2020 amounted to 8,454,007.24 kg and in 2021 amounted to 7,779,411.27 kg.
Forecasting the Number of Child Development Therapy Patients at Mentari Anakku Clinic Tangerang in 2021 with the Double Exponential Smoothing Method Nurbaiti, Haliza; Siregar, Rosman
Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2022): Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (591.59 KB) | DOI: 10.32734/jomte.v1i2.7660

Abstract

Clinic is a health service facility that organizes and provides basic and specialist medical services, organized by more than one type of health worker and led by a medical worker. This study aims to determine fluctuations and predict the number of therapy patients at the Child Development Clinic (Mentari Anakku) using the time series method, namely double exponential smoothing. Based on the results of the forecast using the double exponential smoothing method in the 2021 period, it is known that the total number of child development therapy patients is 7,062 people. It can be seen that the total number of patients has increased quite significantly and it is necessary for the clinic to improve the performance of the workers.
Determination of the Inventory of Cassava Raw Materials UD Rezeky Baru Medan Based on the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Method Silalahi, Anastasia Claresta; Siregar, Rosman
Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2022): Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (524.465 KB) | DOI: 10.32734/jomte.v1i2.7682

Abstract

The need for an inventory control system basically arises because of problems faced by the company in the form of excess or shortage of company inventory. The EOQ (Economic Order Quantity) method is one of the inventory control methods used to determine the number of economic orders, namely the number of orders that meet the minimum total inventory cost. The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal amount of cassava raw material inventory at UD Rezeky Baru with the EOQ method and the comparison of the total cost of raw material inventory between costs according to the company and costs according to the EOQ method. Based on the results of calculations using the EOQ method, the optimal number of orders for cassava raw materials in 2019 is 18.722,62 kg. The total cost of raw material inventory using the EOQ method is Rp. 1.497.809,00, while according to the company, it is Rp. 9.467.640,00. The company can save on inventory costs by Rp. 7.969.830,00.
The Effect of Number of Population, Average Expenditure, Unemployment, and Number of Poor People in North Sumatra Province with Path Analysis Method Erwin; Balqis, Muthia Ferliani; Siregar, Rosman; Marpaung, Rony Genevent; Marpaung, J.L.
Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32734/jomte.v2i2.13589

Abstract

Poverty is an economic problem so that a person experiences the inability to meet the necessities of life caused by the economy not meeting the average standard of living of society in general. This research is to find out how much influence it has on population, average public expenditure, unemployment, and the number of poor people in the province of North Sumatra. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been an increase in the poverty rate in 2021-2022. The percentage of poor people in September 2022 was 9.57 percent, an increase of 0.03 percent from March 2022 and a decrease of 0.14 percent from September 2021. Many people are experiencing unemployment due to reduced job opportunities. This research was conducted using the path analysis method and SPSS version 22 software. This research used quantitative data obtained from data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. Data were tested using the Classical Assumption Test, Hypothesis Test, and Correlation Coefficient Test. The research results obtained have a direct influence on the Independent Variables and Dependent Variables namely; Total Population (X1) and Average Spending (X2) on Unemployment (Y) where there is a significant value less than 0.05, which means it has a significant effect. The results obtained in the analysis model equation Y = 0.385X1 + 0.117X2 + 0.233Z + 0.905.
Implementasi Metode Goal Programming dalam Optimalisasi Perencanaan Produksi Keripik Kaban, Helista; Siregar, Rosman
FARABI: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 7 No 2 (2024): FARABI: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika FKIP UNIVA Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47662/farabi.v7i2.785

Abstract

Penelitian ini mengaplikasikan metode goal programming untuk mengoptimalkan perencanaan produksi keripik. Goal programming dipilih karena kemampuannya menangani berbagai tujuan seperti memaksimalkan produksi, mengurangi biaya, dan meningkatkan keuntungan, sehingga sangat cocok untuk perencanaan produksi. Penelitian ini dilakukan melalui dua tahap: peramalan produksi menggunakan metode pemulusan eksponensial dan optimalisasi perencanaan dengan goal programming. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa semua perencanaan mencapai kondisi optimal tanpa penyimpangan pada variabel deviasi, menunjukkan solusi yang optimal. Analisis penjualan aktual selama lima bulan terakhir menunjukkan tingkat akurasi tinggi, dengan persentase kesamaan 85%-96% dibandingkan dengan perencanaan menggunakan goal programming. Oleh karena itu, model ini efektif sebagai alat bantu pengambilan keputusan produksi, meningkatkan efisiensi operasional, dan mengalokasikan sumber daya dengan lebih baik. Implementasi di UD. Keripik Cinta Mas Hendro menunjukkan perencanaan produksi yang optimal, memenuhi permintaan pasar, menjaga biaya produksi dalam batas, dan mencapai target keuntungan.
Perbandingan Metode K-Means, K-Medoids, dan Fuzzy C Means dalam Pengelompokan Kota dan Kabupaten di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Berdasarkan Indikator Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Tahun 2023 Saragih, Andre June Agri Saragih; Siregar, Rosman
FARABI: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 8 No 1 (2025): FARABI: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika FKIP UNIVA Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47662/farabi.v8i1.900

Abstract

In March 2023, the percentage of poor people in urban areas was 8.23% and in rural areas was 8.03%, with a decrease of 0.40 points in urban areas and an increase of 0.07 points in rural areas compared to September 2022. Based on these facts, it can be concluded that there has not been even development between villages and city. Cluster analysis is a tool that can be used to group cities and regencies in North Sumatra Province. This research analyzes the comparison of the K-Means, K-Medoids and Fuzzy C-Means methods in conducting cluster analysis. Where in the K-Means method, cluster 1 has 4 cities/regencies, cluster 2 has 8 cities/regencies and cluster 3 has 21 cities/regencies. In the K-Medoids method, the cluster results are the same as the cluster results of the K-Means method. Meanwhile, in the Fuzzy C-Means method, Cluster 1 has 9 cities/regencies, cluster 2 has 16 cities/regencies and cluster 3 has 8 cities/regencies. Then, based on the Davies Bouldin Index (DBI) values from the three methods, it was concluded that the cluster results of the K-Means method were more optimal compared to the K-Medoids and Fuzzy C-Means methods because they had the smallest DBI value.
Online Learning For Primary Level / Madrasah With Online Applications In Min 2 Serdang Bedagai Suyanto; Surbakti, Nurul Maulida; Sitorus, Syahriol; Siregar, Rosman; Zahedi
ABDIMAS TALENTA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol. 6 No. 1 (2021): ABDIMAS TALENTA : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (274.298 KB) | DOI: 10.32734/abdimastalenta.v6i1.5117

Abstract

The online learning system is still having problems. As a result of the observations of the USU team, several obstacles were felt not only by the teachers at MIN 2 Serdang Bedagai but also by students and parents. The problems that occur are quite diverse. Starting from limited signal, limited devices suitable for online learning, to the lack of technological knowledge of teachers and students on online applications that support the teaching and learning process. There are various online applications available today, such as Google Classroom, Zoom, Google Meet, Youtube, and others. These various online applications play an important role in helping students and teachers in the distance learning process. The USU team conducted training using the online application Google Classroom and Zoom. Google Classroom and Zoom were chosen because they are easier for the teacher to implement, besides that the two online applications facilitate coordination and communication between teachers and students, so that the material being taught can be discussed more easily, more freely and can be updated more quickly. In this community service, Online Learning training was conducted for the Elementary School / Madrasah Ibtidaiyah Level with Various Online Applications at MIN 2 Serdang Bedagai. This community service has reached the implementation stage of training which begins with the initial survey stage, provision of training modules and also training. The next stage is monitoring and evaluation and feedback. 
Optimization of Literacy Development for Children in Tanjung Kasau Plantation Village Siringoringo, Yan Batara; Marpaung, TJ; Hasibuan, Citra Dewi; Tarigan, E.D.; Balqis, Muthia Ferliani; Sari, Aminah; Hasibuan, Mhd. Nasir; Siregar, Rosman
ABDIMAS TALENTA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol. 8 No. 1 (2023): ABDIMAS TALENTA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32734/abdimastalenta.v8i1.11304

Abstract

Reading is the most basic ability as a provision to learn everything. In literacy, reading is a very interesting and important form of learning for teachers and students so that learning is easy to understand or understand when doing reading activities. Literacy is a person's ability to process and understand information when carrying out the process of reading and writing. School is an institution that is responsible for creating a reading culture which is an important part of learning activities. Schools must be able to facilitate various means that can increase students' interest in reading, namely by utilizing the school library. Through reading students can broaden horizons, sharpen ideas, and increase knowledge. The method used in this activity is to teach students to read in groups by utilizing the books in the library of SDN 10 Tanjung Kasau plantation village. The results obtained from this program are being able to develop children's interest in reading and elementary school children's knowledge in reading, especially grades 1-4 who cannot read, so that the purpose of holding this interest in reading (literacy) program can be implemented.