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Journal : international journal of artificial intelligence research

Prediction Modeling of Capacity Factor of Rembang Coal-Fired Steam Power Plant Based on Machine Learning to Improve the Accuracy of Primary Energy Planning Perdana, Ery; Sulardjaka, Sulardjaka; Warsito, Budi
International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Vol 9, No 1 (2025): June
Publisher : Universitas Dharma Wacana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29099/ijair.v9i1.1394

Abstract

The Rembang Coal-Fired Power Plant (PLTU Rembang), with a capacity of 2 x 315 MW, is a key power plant in Central Java, where fuel expenses represent the largest cost component. Accurate fuel procurement planning, which relies on projecting electricity sales, is essential to reduce these costs. This study develops and compares four machine learning-based Capacity Factor (CF) prediction models: random forest regression, support vector regression, multiple polynomial regression, and multiple linear regression. The independent variables are selected from internal and external sources using F-tests and t-tests. Among the four models, the multiple linear regression model demonstrated the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 7.83%. Using this model, the annual CF for PLTU Rembang in 2024-2026 is predicted to be between 82% and 84%, while the CF for February-June 2024 is expected to range from 87% to 91%. With a monthly CF prediction accuracy classified as very good (MAPE of 2.35%), these predictions are valuable for optimizing monthly fuel purchase allocations, considering initial fuel stock and target inventory age (17-30 Days of Plant Operation).
Co-Authors . Widayat A. Budiman A. D. Cahyono A. Suprihanto Abdullah, Nabil Izza Aditya Ardiyanto Agung Hari Wibowo Agus Suprihanto Al-Baari, Ahmad N Ali Sakti Lubis Alif Athallah Amrizal, Abdi Gilang Andri Cahyo Kumoro Arfiansyah, Ryan Aries Susanty Arijanto Arijanto Arman, Mhd. Adithia Perdana Bawono, Ayus Dios Bayu Setiadi Bobby Rio Indriyantho Budi Warsito C. Wahyudianto Chasby Assidiq D B Wibowo D. Satrijo Darmawan, Krisna Deni Fajar Fitriana Deri Dagi Wacono Deri Dagi Wacono, Deri Dagi Didi Dwi Anggoro Dwi Haryadi, Gunawan E F Setiaji Eben Heser Liku Emile van der Heide F Adnan Fahrizal Ega Ferri Anis Faisal Febry Nurdiansyah Ferry Hermawan Fitriyana, D. F. Fitriyana, Deni Fajar Gunawan Dwi Haryadi H Hadiyanto Hanif Taufiqurrahman Harianto Harianto Heide, Emile van der I Made Wicaksana Ekaputra Iliyas, Muhamad Ismoyo Haryanto J. Jamari Lubis, Reza Pahlefi Luqman Buchori M. Faizin Alamsyah M.S. Rahman Marvelio Kanugraha Mas Frillian Gerry Hutama Ajie Mohammad Tauviqirrahman Mubarok, D.I. Muhammad Khafidh Muhammad Roziq Husen Naniek Utami Handayani Noer Abyor Handayani Norman Iskandar Nugraha, Ariyana Dwiputra P Wahyudi Paryanto Peradana, Reski Hadi Perdana, Ery Perwana, Putu Yuri Aristya Praditya, Altalarik Prakoso, Ivan Setyo Pramudya, Naufal Fajar Primasatya, Dimas Raka Mahendra Sulistiyo Ratna Purwaningsih Rifky Ismail S N, Rona Andriyanto S, Pandu Muhammad Saefudin, Slamet Sarsanto, Sigit Silviana Silviana Simalango, Antonius Sri Nugroho Sugeng Tirta Atmaja Sugiman Sugiman Sulianto, Filbert Manggala Sulistiono, Fajar Budi Sulistyo Sulistyo Sumardi . Susanto, Alexander Eka Syafri Arya Budiman Syafrudin Syafrudin Syamsul Sigit Adisetiaji Syarief, Elijah Tegar Ardiyan Akbar Tri Rizqi Prihadi Tricho Hermawan Vegy Panca Aesha Waaddulloh, Muizzaddin Winarno, Tri Sulistyo Yoyok Budi Pramono