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All Journal Jupiter I-ROBOT Cyberspace: Jurnal Pendidikan Teknologi Informasi JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING SELAPARANG: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Berkemajuan Prosiding Seminar Nasional Darmajaya JURIKOM (Jurnal Riset Komputer) JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH IJISCS (International Journal Of Information System and Computer Science) Jurnal Teknologi Komputer dan Sistem Informasi BERNAS: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Pengabdian Dharma Wacana Sinar Sang Surya: Jurnal Pusat Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat International Research on Big-data and Computer Technology (IRobot) Journal Computer Science and Informatic Systems : J-Cosys Jurnal Pengabdian Multidisiplin Ilmu Komputer untuk Masyarakat Prosiding Seminar Nasional Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Masyarakat Madani Indonesia Jurnal Pengabdian Kolaborasi dan Inovasi IPTEKS PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL PENELITIAN DAN PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT (SNPPM) UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH METRO
Tri Aristy Saputri
STMIK Dharma Wacana, Lampung
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ANALISIS ARIMA UNTUK MEMPROYEKSI PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK DI KOTA METRO Saputri, Tri Aristi; Febritama, Dani; Moetiara R.A, Allien
JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Vol 8, No 1 (2025): February 2025
Publisher : Smart Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54314/jssr.v8i1.2692

Abstract

Abstract: This research intends to project the increase in population of Metro City employing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method. The data utilized encompasses the population figures from 2010 to 2022, sourced from the Office of Population and Civil Registration and the Central Statistics Agency. Data collection was conducted through documentation, and the analysis involved stationarity testing using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, model identification for ARIMA, projection, and model validation. The analysis results indicate that the ARIMA (2,1,1) model is the most suitable for projecting the population figures. The projection for the year 2023 estimates the total population to reach 154,300 individuals, with separate projections for male and female populations also provided. These projections offer critical insights for government policy planning in addressing the challenges posed by ongoing population growth. This study recommends that future research employ alternative methods and broader data collection to enhance the accuracy of projections.Keyword: ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), Population Projection, Time Series Analysis, Statistical Modeling. Abstrak: Studi ini diarahkan untuk memproyeksikan peningkatan jumlah penduduk di Kota Metro mengaplikasikan teknik Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Data yang dianalisis mencakup jumlah penduduk dari tahun 2010 hingga 2022, yang berasal dari Disdukcapil serta Badan Pusat Statistik. Metode pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui dokumentasi, dan analisis data meliputi uji stasionaritas menggunakan Uji Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), identifikasi model ARIMA, proyeksi, serta validasi model. Hasil analisa menggambarkan model ARIMA (2,1,1) paling sesuai untuk memproyeksikan jumlah penduduk. Proyeksi untuk tahun 2023 menunjukkan total penduduk mencapai 154,300 jiwa, dengan rincian jumlah penduduk laki-laki dan perempuan yang juga diproyeksikan secara terpisah. Hasil proyeksi ini memberikan wawasan penting bagi perencanaan kebijakan pemerintah dalam menghadapi pertumbuhan penduduk yang terus meningkat. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan agar penelitian lanjutan dilaksanakan dengan menerapkan metode yang berbeda dan pengumpulan data yang lebih luas untuk meningkatkan akurasi proyeksi.Kata kunci: ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), Proyeksi Penduduk, Analisis Deret Waktu, Pemodelan Statistik.
Comparative Study of the ARIMA Method and Multiple Linear Regression in Metro City Population Growth Projections Saputri, Tri Aristi; Rachma Ajiz, Allien Moetiara; Febritama, Dani
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): April 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v9i2.9097

Abstract

This study aims to compare the effectiveness of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method and multiple linear regression in projecting population growth in Metro City, Lampung. The analysis utilizes population data from 2010 to 2022, sourced from the Central Statistics Agency and the Population and Civil Registration Office. The methodologies employed include ARIMA modelling and multiple linear regression, with model evaluation conducted using metrics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The findings indicate that the multiple linear regression model predicts an average population growth of 2,200 individuals per year, resulting in a total projection of 185,032 by 2030. In contrast, the ARIMA (2,1,1) model forecasts a total population of 169,500 for the same year. The conclusion drawn from this research suggests that while both methods possess distinct advantages, ARIMA is more effective in capturing seasonal patterns and long-term trends, whereas multiple linear regression offers greater interpretability. This study recommends the complementary use of both methods to enhance the accuracy of population growth projections.
MENINGKATKAN EFEKTIVITAS TEACHING FACTORY DENGAN MEDIA PEMBELAJARAN BERBASIS TEKNOLOGI DAN KECERDASAN BUATAN DI SMK MUHAMMADIYAH 3 METRO Tri Aristi Saputri; Budi Sutomo; Aninda Amelia
Jurnal Pengabdian Kolaborasi dan Inovasi IPTEKS Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): April
Publisher : CV. Alina

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59407/jpki2.v3i2.2076

Abstract

Kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan pemahaman dan keterampilan guru serta siswa SMK dalam mengintegrasikan media pembelajaran berbasis teknologi dan kecerdasan buatan (AI) ke dalam model Teaching Factory. Kegiatan dilaksanakan di SMK Muhammadiyah 3 Metro pada 12–13 Desember 2024, dengan melibatkan guru pilihan, kepala sekolah, serta perwakilan dari dunia usaha dan industri. Metode yang digunakan meliputi paparan materi, sesi tanya jawab, praktik langsung, kolaborasi dengan industri, serta evaluasi dan umpan balik. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan bahwa 85% peserta mengalami peningkatan pemahaman terhadap penggunaan AI dalam pendidikan. Peserta juga aktif dalam praktik langsung dan diskusi interaktif, menunjukkan antusiasme tinggi dan kesiapan untuk menerapkan pembelajaran berbasis teknologi. Kegiatan ini berhasil memperkuat sinergi antara pendidikan kejuruan dan kebutuhan dunia industri. Diharapkan kegiatan serupa dapat dilanjutkan secara berkelanjutan untuk menciptakan lulusan yang adaptif dan kompeten menghadapi era digital. Kata Kunci : Teaching Factory, Media Pembelajaran, Kecerdasan Buatan, Teknologi Pendidikan, Dunia Industri
Co-Authors Andreas Perdana Aninda Amelia Apsiswanto, Untoro Arief Adjie Wicaksono Budi Sutomo Budi Sutomo Budi Sutomo Budi Sutomo Budi Sutomo, Budi Cici Novita Sari Dadang Asep Fitriantoro Dede Mulyana Deo Pratama Febri Sugandi Febritama, Dani Firman Eka Saputra, Firman Eka Hairunnisa, Afifah Handayani, Etik Puji Kohoiriah, Siti Krisnarini Krisnarini, Krisnarini M Nur Ikhsanto Mirantika, Fika Moetiara R.A, Allien Muharni, Sita Noviyanti Noviyanti Nurdiyanto, Heri Okke Stevanus Perdana, Andreas Pusfitasari, Desi Rachma Ajiz, Allien Moetiara Rakhmiati Rakhmiati Ridwan Yusuf Rudy Kurniawan Sofyan Rofiq Sulistiyanto Sulistiyanto Sulistiyanto Sulistiyanto, Sulistiyanto Sulistiyanto, Mr. Syaputra, Muhammad Adie Tri Budi Hartono Usep Saprudin Usep Saprudin Yosi Ardianto Yusnira, Dera Rara