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Aplikasi Metode Proses Hirarki Analitik dan Pemrograman Integer 0-1 Dalam Menentukan Komposisi Pemain Sepak Bola pada Football Manager 2019 Christoper Aryo Pambudi; Benny Yong; Taufik Limansyah
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 19 No. 1 (2022): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 19 Nomor 1 Edisi Me
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

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Abstract

Football has became a favorite sport of the world community. Every supporter of a football team would want their team to win the competition they participated in. Formation, strategy, and composition of teams are factors that influence the team's victory in a match. These three factors are the responsibility of a football coach in concocting his team in winning. This paper will discuss the application of the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the Integer 0-1 Program to assist football coaches in composing the composition of football players in a match. The AHP is used in this case to calculate the priority weights of each soccer player criteria while the Integer 0-1 Program is used to get eleven players to be deployed in a match. The results of both methods are simulated using the game Football Manager 2019 with team Manchester United in the English Premier League. Based on simulations conducted during the two season matches, Manchester United was able to finish in a fairly stable ranking in the English Premier League standings for two seasons.
Pemodelan dan Perhitungan Premi Asuransi Keamanan Siber dengan Model Non-Markov Ivander Jeremy; Felivia Kusnadi; Benny Yong
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 19 No. 2 (2022): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 19 Nomor 2 Edisi No
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

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Abstract

The development of information and communication technology not only has positive impacts, but also negative impacts, especially in the cybersecurity sector. Insurance companies need to create a relatively new insurance product, namely cybersecurity insurance. However, development of cybersecurity insurance still needs further investigation because there is no standard actuarial table like mortality table in life insurance. This article will discuss the modeling of infection and recovery process of a node and various other connected nodes in a computer network of the company using non-Markov model in the case of absence of dependence between cybersecurity risks, applying the Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain experimental data with various distributions – Weibull, Lognormal, and Inverse Gaussian – for the calculation of premium charged by insurance companies to insured companies interested in purchasing cybersecurity insurance products. Standard deviation premium principle and exponential utility premium principle are used to calculate premium. We concluded that the infection and recovery time with a long-tailed distribution has a lower premium price compared to those with a short-tailed distribution.
Analisis Perbandingan Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar pada Model Penyebaran Penyakit Dengue dengan Pengaruh Faktor Usia di Kota Bandung Vania Junisha; Farah Kristiani; Benny Yong
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 16 No. 2 (2019): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 16 Nomor 2 Edisi De
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

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Abstract

Penyakit Dengue merupakan salah satu masalah kesehatan yang utama di masyarakat Indonesia pada umumnya dan di kota Bandung pada khususnya. Pada penyebarannya, ternyata terdapat perbedaan tingkat risiko transmisi antara kelompok usia anak dan orang dewasa pada penyakit Dengue. Sebagai salah satu strategi pencegahan penyebaran penyakit ini, dapat dengan melalui pemodelan dari sistem dinamika penyebarannya. Penelitian ini akan menganalisa model penyebaran penyakit Dengue di kota Bandung dengan memperhitungkan faktor individu anak dengan kasus simtomatik dan asimtomatik. Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar (BRD) sebagai nilai ambang batas penyebaran penyakit ini akan dicari dan dianalisis dengan menggunakan metode Matriks Generasi dan Laju Pertumbuhan Intrinsik dan dengan menerapkan nilai parameter-parameter dan data banyaknya kasus dengue di kota Bandung pada tahun 2016-2018. Titik kesetimbangan dari kondisi bebas penyakit dan endemik juga akan ditentukan untuk memverifikasi keakuratan model yang dibuat. Dari hasil analisisnya, disimpulkan bahwa kedua metode menghasilkan bentuk BRD yang memiliki karakter yang berbeda dan diterapkan pada kondisi yang berbeda pula. Jika data real tersedia, maka lebih baik menerapkan metode Laju Pertumbuhan Intrinsik. Sebaliknya, jika data real tidak lengkap tersedia, maka disarankan menggunakan metode Matriks Generasi
Kontrol Penyebaran Penyakit SARS dengan Menggunakan Analisis Sensitivitas pada Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar Benny Yong; Putri Efelin
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 17 No. 2 (2020): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 17 Nomor 2 Edisi De
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

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Abstract

Makalah ini membahas analisis sensitivitas pada bilangan reproduksi dasar pada model penyebaran penyakit SARS dengan pengaruh vaksinasi. Model melibatkan individu rentan, individu terinfeksi tapi belum dapat menularkan, individu yang diisolasi, individu terinfeksi yang dapat menularkan dan belum terdiagnosa SARS, individu pulih, dan individu meninggal karena penyakit SARS, dan individu rentan yang telah divaksin. Karena ketidakpastian dalam penaksiran nilai parameter yang mengakibatkan bervariasinya nilai bilangan reproduksi dasar, akan dilakukan simulasi Monte Carlo pada bilangan reproduksi dasar dengan menggunakan berbagai distribusi untuk setiap parameternya. Hasil analisis sensitivitas pada model penyebaran penyakit SARS dengan pengaruh vaksinasi menunjukkan bahwa parameter proporsi individu isolasi yang berpotensi menginfeksi individu rentan mempunyai pengaruh positif terbesar dalam penyebaran penyakit SARS untuk semua kondisi nilai bilangan reproduksi dasar. Parameter proporsi individu rentan yang berhasil divaksin sebelum terjadinya SARS dalam suatu populasi mempunyai pengaruh negatif terbesar dalam penyebaran penyakit SARS ketika kondisi bilangan reproduksi dasar bernilai kurang dari satu, sedangkan parameter laju pemulihan dari individu isolasi mempunyai pengaruh negatif terbesar dalam penyebaran penyakit SARS untuk kondisi bilangan reproduksi dasar bernilai lebih dari satu.
Simulasi Perhitungan Premi Asuransi Kesehatan dan Jiwa pada Penderita Covid-19 yang Dipengaruhi Model Penyebaran Penyakit Menular SIDRS Patrick Louis Lucin; Farah Kristiani; Benny Yong
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 20 No. 1 (2023): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 20 Nomor 1 Edisi Ma
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

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Abstract

Determination of health and death insurance benefits according to the needs of policyholders is very important to determine from the beginning of making an insurance policy, especially for insurance that takes over the risk of being infected with the COVID-19 virus. Several factors that must be taken into account in determining the amount of benefits and premiums due to COVID-19 are the human population factor that is susceptible, infected and death in the SIDRS infectious disease spread model. In this study, the influence of these three factors on actuarial calculations is examined in more depth to produce an appropriate premium determination formula by taking into account two payment schemes in lump sum and annuity. From the simulation results by applying data on COVID-19 cases in Indonesia to determine the parameters of the SIDRS model, it is concluded that the premium with an annuity benefit payment scheme is smaller than the premium with a lump sum benefit scheme. Furthermore, it is also concluded that if the population of policyholders increases, the premium price will also be lower.
Penerapan Metode Klasifikasi Perangkat Lunak ArcMap pada Pemetaan Penyebaran Penyakit Dengue di Bandung Ananda Shafira; Farah Kristian; Benny Yong
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 20 No. 1 (2023): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 20 Nomor 1 Edisi Ma
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

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Abstract

Bandung is the city with the highest cases of Dengue disease in West Java. The effectiveness of the vaccine of Dengue disease are still not very high and there is no specific medicine for Dengue disease. In this study, we estimate the relative risk of Dengue disease in each sub-district in Bandung. The results of the relative risk estimation can be used as a reference to cure and prevent this disease more effective and efficient because we can focus more on critical area. The relative risks are estimated using two approaches, the frequentist with the Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) model and Bayesian with the Localized model of Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CARBayes). The results show that the sub-districts with the highest and lowest relative risk are Cibeunying Kidul and Bandung Kulon, respectively. Furthermore, each sub-districts are depicted based on their relative risk using some classification methods. The classification methods from ArcMap software that will be used are Manual Interval, Defined Interval, Equal Interval, Quantile, Natural Breaks, and Standard Deviation. The classification results with each method show that each method has its own characteristics.
Optimizing Weekly-Period Cyclical Lockdown Policies: A Simulation Study Using the A-SIR Model Arief Anbiya; Benny Yong
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2026.9.1.7

Abstract

This paper presents numerical simulations of COVID-19 cyclical lockdown scenario in which there is an alternating short phase between working days and lockdown days with weekly period. We use an adaptive SIR model with daily varying infection and recovery rates. The model is fitted with United States COVID-19 data. The rates for the model-fitting are obtained using the Method of Variational Imbedding (MVI) and fixed-point iteration that depend on actual COVID-19 data. Subsequently, we use the adaptive model to simulate cyclical lockdown of W working days (normal state) and L lockdown days with weekly cycle W +L = 7. To model the cyclical lockdown scenario, we multiply the infection rate by a piecewise continuous damping function that has value either 1 (when no lockdown is implemented) or 0.175 (when short lockdown is implemented). The numerical simulation shows that allowing up to 5 working days per week can flatten the curve of active cases. We also compare the model for cyclical lockdown scenario against the model for prolonged and continuous lockdown scenario: the simulation of prolonged continuous lockdown without allowing a short period of normal state result in smaller final epidemic size. However, as the number of lockdown L gets higher, the cyclical lockdown seems to converge to the prolonged continuous lockdown. Our result shows that using cyclical lockdown with L = 4 lockdown days per week for 177 weeks, which means 708 days of lockdown, gives total incidence (final epidemic size) of 4.311% (as a percentage of initial susceptible population S(0)), while using prolonged continuous lockdown for 708 consecutive days results in total incidence of 3.111%. Although the latter has smaller total incidence, the difference is not significant, which suggests that we can trade it for social and economic advantages that cyclical lockdown offers.
FLOOD REINSURANCE PREMIUM PRICING BASED ON THE STANDARD DEVIATION PRINCIPLE WITH POT-BASED THRESHOLDS FOR MORTALITY AND PROPERTY DAMAGE RISKS Vanessa Anggriawan; Ferry Jaya Permana; Benny Yong
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss1pp0347-0366

Abstract

Disasters that occur in Indonesia lead to financial loss. One approach to mitigating the financial impact is through the utilization of natural disaster insurance. Although natural disasters occur with a relatively small frequency, the associated losses are substantial. Insurance companies need to carefully consider the characteristics of natural disaster data, as these events can lead to significant claims and potentially result in the bankruptcy of insurance companies. Insurance companies can reduce the risk of bankruptcy by transferring some risk to reinsurance companies. In this paper, the disaster reinsurance premium is determined by considering both the mortality and economic risks using the peaks over threshold (POT) model under the standard deviation principle. The Poisson, generalized Pareto, and lognormal distributions are used to determine the premium, with parameters estimated using the maximum likelihood method. A simulation analysis is conducted using synthetic data generated with RStudio software, which includes the frequency of floods per year over 20 years, as well as the number of deaths and the number of houses damaged in each flood event. The threshold is determined using the percentage method, where 10% of the data is considered extreme values. The POT model is applied to various retention cases. The simulation results show that the risk of the number of damaged houses has a greater impact on the premium amount that the insurance company must pay to the reinsurance company than the risk of the number of deaths. Additionally, cases with retention values below the threshold result in the highest reinsurance premiums, while cases with retention values above the threshold result in the lowest reinsurance premiums. This paper also shows that the reinsurance premium changes almost linearly with the increase in the extreme value percentage. This study is among the first to apply the peaks over threshold model in combination with multiple distributions for reinsurance premium estimation in the Indonesian context. The findings provide new insights into the sensitivity of reinsurance premiums to damage thresholds and retention levels, offering a practical tool for insurers in disaster-prone regions.