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Journal : Jurnal Ekonomi

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN PENENTUAN TITIK AMBANG BATAS INFLASI DI INDONESIA Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Prawoto, Nano
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan JESP Volume 15 Nomor 1, April 2014
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

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Abstract

Abstract: The study aims to see the relation between two macro indicators which are economic growth and inflation. The data are obtained from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) and Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) from the year 1971-2012. The analysis use causality granger test and non-linier regression. The result of this analysis shows that there is correlation between inflation and economic growth. There is no evidence of inflation dot (1 to 20%) that has negative influence toward the economic growth; population does not have significant influence to the economic growth while investment has positive impact on economic growth. Abstrak: Studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat sejauh mana hubungan antara dua indikator makro ekonomi yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. Data yang digunakan diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) pada tahun 1971-2012. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah uji kausalitas granger dan regresi non-linier. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan dua arah yang saling berkaitan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. Tidak ditemukan titik inflasi (1 sampai 20 persen) yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan populasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sedangkan investasi berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.  
A time-varying of property residential price in Indonesia: a VAR approach Khoirudin, Rifki; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol 24, No 1: April 2023
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17750

Abstract

The crisis of 2008 started with asset price bubbles which spread to other sectors, thus driving a recession. Turmoil in the housing sector can directly harm the domestic economy and financial stability. The research aims to analyze macroeconomic variables that can affect asset prices in Indonesia and how the inflation-targeting framework directly affects asset prices. This study contributes to the current research, such as the early warning system for the asset sector that the crisis of 2008 started with asset price bubbles. The Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) policy used by the Central Bank has shown its effectiveness in the property sector. It can be seen that a negative response is shown from property prices when there are inflationary shocks. The response of interest rates to fluctuations in housing prices is stronger than the response of housing prices to fluctuations in interest rates. It indicates that the interest rate stimulus is more reactive to changes in housing prices as an accommodation of housing price volatility. GDP and money supply will respond negatively to property price fluctuations, which can lead to a crisis because GDP responds negatively. The strengthening of fiscal and monetary policy can soften the volatility of asset prices.
Money Demand in Indonesia: Does Economic Uncertainty Matter? Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; A'yun, Indanazulfa Qurrota; Perwithosuci, Winny
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol 23, No 2: October 2022
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15876

Abstract

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, there has been a rise in economic uncertainty and money demand research. The money demand is vital in monetary policy, which has implications for the regional economy. This study aims to analyse the money demand in Indonesia in the middle of global economic uncertainty, as well as the contribution of the study, which includes the economic and monetary policy uncertainty in a separate model for an enhanced money demand function. The study used a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The results indicate that monetary demand is negatively affected by economic uncertainty. With the development of the financial sector, the impact of economic uncertainty and the unpredictability of US monetary policy drives people to be more cautious, resulting in a movement of "wealth" to other instruments. The current study implies that the monetary policy in the form of interest rates as the response to the global condition should consider monetary aggregates in terms of money demand as a precautionary measure to maintain money demand. The study revealed that stable money demand suggests inflation targeting as a monetary policy that can enhance monetary policy in the face of rising economic uncertainty.
The role of investment for poverty alleviation in Yogyakarta: Evidence from logit regression Suripto, Suripto; Sukarniati, Lestari; Khasanah, Uswatun; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Istanti, Istanti
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol 25, No 1: April 2024
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v25i1.21060

Abstract

This article discusses the Solow-Romet theory of economic growth, aiming to explain the relationship between household poverty in the Province of Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) through investments in education, quality of life improvement, and health. The study examines various influence variables, including Non-Formal Education (XNF), Educational Scholarships (XBS), Protein Consumption (PK), Disease Prevention Costs (XL), Calorie Consumption (IK)), Health Insurance Variables (XAS ), and Food Security (XT) in assessing the poverty status of households in the Special Region of Yogyakarta in 2021. The estimation model employs a logit mode approach, using data from Susenas (National Socioeconomic) data for the Special Province of Yogyakarta, with a sample size of 4044 households. The findings of this study indicate that investments in non-formal education, school fees, and educational scholarships do not significantly affect family poverty status. However, increased investment in quality of life (such as calorie consumption) and health (including disease prevention and health insurance spending) will affect the poverty status of households in the Special Province of Yogyakarta in 2021.
Sustaining innovation: How financial investment shapes patent creation in leading economies? Gatari, Altis Puspa; Lubis, Firsty Ramadhona Amalia; Khoirudin, Rifki; Az Zakiyyah, Nurul Azizah; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Salim, Agus
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 25 No. 2: October 2024
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v25i2.26366

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the role of liquidity in promoting patent-based innovation in the 10 countries with the highest innovation rates during the period 2012-2021. Using secondary data from the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), and World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), this study applies panel data regression method with Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) approach to identify the influence of economic variables on the number of patents. The independent variables analyzed include equity x high technology, credit x high technology, industrial value added, exports, and liquidity. The results show that high-tech-based equity and credit have a significant influence on increasing the number of patents, while exports and liquidity do not show a meaningful influence. Value-added was also shown to have a significant contribution to innovation. These findings indicate that funding stability and long-term investment in research and development (R&D) determine innovation success more than the level of liquidity of the firm. Therefore, government policies and funding strategies should focus on improving access to high-tech-based financing as well as incentivizing R&D activities to foster a sustainable innovation ecosystem.
Analysis of oil price, trade openness and business cycle on exchange rate in Indonesia Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Trianto, Cahyo; Suripto, Suripto
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 25 No. 2: October 2024
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v25i2.24620

Abstract

The importance of exchange rate stability in achieving macroeconomic policy objec-tives cannot be ignored by developed or developing countries, including Indonesia. The adaptability of exchange rate management policies in achieving the macroeco-nomic policy goals is a testament to the resilience of the system. However, exchange rate stability cannot occur by itself, it depends on macroeconomic conditions. The research applies the ARDL method to analyze the short and long term influence of macroeconomic variables on exchange rates. The research results show that oil pric-es have a negative and significant impact on the rupiah exchange rate in the long term, while trade openness has no effect in the short and long term. The ARDL model consistently shows the negative influence of business cycle variables on ex-change rates in the short and long term.The implication of the research is that maintaining the stability of domestic macroeconomic conditions through increasing people's purchasing power, encouraging exports and export diversification, especial-ly in the manufacturing sector, which not only has a large multiplier effect in ab-sorbing labor but also can be a significant tool for stabilizing the exchange rate.
Export-led growth and growth-led export in ASEAN: A panel VECM causality analysis Suripto, Suripto; Khasanah, Uswatun; Sukarniati, Lestari; Salim, Agus; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Athfal, Azkal Azkiya
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 26 No. 2: October 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v26i2.28357

Abstract

This study examines the bidirectional relationship between exports and economic growth in five ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines. The analysis applies the Export-Led Growth (ELG) and Growth-Led Export (GLE) frameworks using annual panel data from 1971 to 2023. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and panel Granger causality tests are employed to identify short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships. Stationarity is tested using the Levin-Lin-Chu, Im-Pesaran-Shin, and Phillips-Perron methods, while long-run cointegration is examined using the Kao and Pedroni approaches. The findings confirm a stable long-run relationship between exports and economic growth across ASEAN countries. In the short run, causal directions vary among countries. The Export-Led Growth pattern appears in Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand, whereas the Growth-Led Export pattern is evident in the Philippines, while Malaysia shows a weaker short-term interaction. Long-run estimates reveal a two-way adjustment mechanism between exports and growth, suggesting that structural differences and trade openness determine the strength and direction of causality. The novelty of this research lies in the simultaneous testing of ELG and GLE hypotheses within a panel-based VECM framework that integrates short-run and long-run dynamics using Python-based econometric modelling. The study contributes new empirical evidence and policy insights for designing context-specific trade and growth strategies across ASEAN economies.