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Peramalan Tingkat Kematian Neonatal Bayi Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen Pada Tahun 2025 Pohan, Siti Rolizah; Sari, Rina Filia
Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 7, No 4 (2025): Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas PGRI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26877/imajiner.v7i4.23485

Abstract

Kematian neonatal merupakan indikator penting dalam menilai kondisi kesehatan masyarakat, khususnya pada bayi baru lahir usia 0–28 hari. Fluktuasi angka kematian neonatal dari tahun ke tahun di berbagai daerah menimbulkan kekhawatiran dan memerlukan pendekatan prediktif yang akurat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan jumlah kematian neonatal pada tahun 2025 di Provinsi Sumatera Utara menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) model Chen. Data sekunder diperoleh dari Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Sumatera Utara, mencakup angka kematian neonatal tahunan pada 33 kabupaten/kota dari tahun 2018 hingga 2023 dengan total 198 data. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan bahwa jumlah kematian neonatal pada tahun 2025 diprediksi sebanyak 766 kasus, menurun dari proyeksi tahun 2024 yaitu 796 kasus. Nilai akurasi model diukur menggunakan Mean Absolute Error (MAE) dan Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) dengan hasil menunjukkan tingkat kesalahan yang relatif rendah, sehingga model ini dinilai layak digunakan dalam mendukung pengambilan kebijakan kesehatan di masa mendatang.
Optimizing the use of sewing materials to maximize production output Rakhmawati, Fibri; Rifki, Mhd Ikhsan; Husein, Ismail; Cipta, Hendra; Lubis, Riri Syafitri; Sari, Rina Filia
Abdimas Indonesian Journal Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Civiliza Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59525/aij.v5i2.1043

Abstract

This Community Service Program aims to optimize the use of sewing materials to maximize production output at Rumah Jahit Nila through the application of a linear programming model in the allocation and use of sewing materials in planning and maximizing production output. The implementation methods include mapping processes and data requirements and formulating a linear programming model relevant to the scale of Nila Sewing House MSMEs, as well as training and live demonstrations using QM as software to determine optimization solutions. The evaluation was conducted on 15 participants using a 1–4 Likert scale instrument with four assessment indicators, namely, training content, presenter's subject-matter expertise, event facilities, and benefits of the program. Descriptive analysis showed an overall average of 3.43 on a scale of 4, with a percentage level of 85.8%, which is in the Very Good category. In order, the indicator achievements are Presenter’s Subject-Matter Expertise = 3.53 (88.33%), Benefits of the Program = 3.47 ( 86.67%), Training Content = 3.40 (85.00%), and Event Facilities = 3.33 (83.33%). These results confirm that the competence of the speakers and the relevance of the benefits are the main strengths, while the content and facilities of the activities are areas for priority improvement. This program has successfully improved participants' technical capacity in modeling and implementing linear program-based raw material optimization, while also providing a foundation for operational implementation to reduce waste and increase throughput.
Optimization Of Peanut Bread Production Using The Cutting Plane Method at UD. Hj. Eliya Lubis Laoly, Siti Khadijah; Sari, Rina Filia
Advance Sustainable Science Engineering and Technology Vol. 6 No. 3 (2024): May - July
Publisher : Science and Technology Research Centre Universitas PGRI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26877/asset.v6i3.841

Abstract

This research aims to optimize the production of peanut bread at UKM Peanut RotiHj. Eliya Lubis in Tebing Tinggi City. The main challenges faced are fluctuating raw material prices and unstable consumer demand, which affect the production process. The research uses the cutting plane method to complete an integer linear program to determine optimal production quantities. This method was chosen because it is effective in solving optimization problems with integer results, which are relevant for in-house production. The research results show that the cutting plane method is able to produce better optimal solutions than other methods, such as branch and bound, thereby increasingproduction efficiency and company profits. . Based on the results of management using the cutting plane method, the profit obtained in December 2023 is IDR. 281.734.404,4 by producing 1.248 peanut butter pineapple breads, 2.175 strawberry jams, 595 cappuccino jams, 6.676 chocolate jams, 2.618 red bean breads and 4.020 green beans. The profit earned in January 2024 is IDR. 276.866.635 by producing 371 peanut butter pineapple breads, 111 strawberry jams, 1.605 cappuccino jams, 1.333 chocolate jams, 4.538 red bean breadsand 2.714 green bean breads. In this case, income in January 2024 decreased drastically due to an increase in raw material prices so that consumer demand was difficult to fulfill.
FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF COVID-19 SUFFERERS IN NORTH SUMATRA USING THE AUTOMATIC CLUSTERING FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN METHOD Siregar, Anggi Ramadany; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.48

Abstract

Corona virus is a virus that is currently endemic throughout the world, including in Indonesia, one of which is in North Sumatra Province, because this virus has claimed many victims. North Sumatra Province in positive cases of Covid-19 is ranked 13th out of 34 provinces in Indonesia. The government's anticipation in handling Covid-19 cases is by forecasting the number of positive Covid-19 cases. One of the methods used to forecast Covid-19 sufferers is the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method. The Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is used to resolve the deviation value from a forecasted value, while Automatic Clustering is used to determine the length of the interval by grouping numerical data. Then the error calculation will be carried out using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to determine the level of accuracy of the forecasting model that has been made. The parameter used in this study is the number of Covid-19 sufferers. The results of this study from data on the number of Covid-19 sufferers have a MAPE value of 4.53%. The MAPE value which is less than 10% means that the forecasting of this study has very good criteria. So the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is very good to be applied in forecasting the number of Covid-19 sufferers in North Sumatra Province.
APPLICATION OF LEAN SIX-SIGMA METHOD AND DEMERIT CHART TO MINIMIZE DEFECTIVE PRODUCT Novia, Ayu; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.51

Abstract

uality control is a form of inspection using certain techniques or methods in decision-making to get the quality standards that have been determined. One type of quality control is using the method of Lean Six Sigma to identify and eliminate waste in activities that are not worth the added value through a continuous increase to reach the level of Six Sigma, then use the demerit control chart as a monitor of the production process. The purpose of the study was to find out how to minimize defects in the 220ml Aqua cup mineral water packaging with the method of Lean Six Sigma and Demerit control chart. With the analysis that has been done, it is known that in the 220ml Aqua Cup product the DPMO value for defects in the 220ml AQUA Cup production process is 22912.83, which is the level of sigma is 3.43 and the process capabilities value is 0.77087 which mean that it still needs a process control for minimizing the product defects.
IMPLEMENTATION OF SUGENO'S FUZZY LOGIC IN ANALYZING RICE AVAILABILITY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AT PERUM BULOG NORTH SUMATRA Pratiwi, Ria Widiya; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i2.54

Abstract

During the Covid-19 Pandemic economic activities in North Sumatra experienced problems because many people had been laid off and lost their jobs which made them worried about reaching the staple of rice. So that the government feels the need to provide rice assistance which is directly channeled through BULOG. With this direct social assistance to the community, it could lead to instability in the rice supply and expenditure stocks until at least February 2021. So it is necessary to analyze the availability of rice at Perum BULOG so that the rice stock supply at Perum BULOG remains stable during the Covid-19 Pandemic. With fuzzy logic, Sugeno will present uncertainty, uncertainty, inaccuracy which will then produce a model of a system that is able to estimate the amount of rice supplies during the Covid-19 pandemic. In January, in the calculation of realization from North Sumatra BULOG, the ending inventory was 42,941 tonnes, while the yield from the Sugeno fuzzy method was 34,833.06 tonnes. This shows that there is a mismatch between the amount of income and expenditure of rice.
Panel Data Regression Modeling of North Sumatra Province's Gross Regional Domestic Product for 2019-2023 Maylani, Ester; Sari, Rina Filia
Vygotsky: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Vygotsky: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30736/voj.v7i2.1279

Abstract

Regional economic growth is influenced by various factors that need to be analyzed accurately to support the formulation of effective policies. This study aims to analyze the influence of economic factors on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in North Sumatra Province. The main issue raised is the need for an appropriate model to understand the relationship between economic variables and GRDP. This study uses panel data from 33 districts/cities during the period 2019–2023 obtained from official sources. Through Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests, the Fixed Effect model was selected. The results indicate that population size, number of poor people, and Human Development Index (HDI) significantly influence RDP.
INFLATION RATE ESTIMATION USING HYBRID ARIMA-ADAPTIVE NEURO FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM METHOD Annisa, Nur Alvi; Sari, Rina Filia
Journal of Computer Networks, Architecture and High Performance Computing Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): Article Research January 2025
Publisher : Information Technology and Science (ITScience)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47709/cnahpc.v7i1.5534

Abstract

Inflation is an important issue that affects the economic stability of a country or region. Unstable inflation will have a negative impact on society, especially on commodity prices including food and energy. Inflation is classified as a time series and will usually recur over time, five years later, or ten years later. , the problem of inflation needs to be studied and analyzed using existing approaches in time series. This research focuses on the application of Hybrid ARIMA-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System method for inflation estimation, which is expected to provide a more accurate picture of the price fluctuations of basic needs in North Sumatra. Overall, the results show that the ability of the Hybrid ARIMA-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System method in estimating inflation values is quite good with the results tending to be stable and not experiencing many sharp fluctuations. The inflation value is in the range of around -2.69 to -2.73 throughout the predicted period. However, a continuous negative number indicates a price decline or economic pressure, so further analysis or development is needed to understand the cause. The estimation results may help to maintain stability or make desired changes in the future.
SIMULASI PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN ALAT TULIS KANTOR PADA DINAS PERKEBUNAN DAN PETERNAKAN PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA DENGAN METODE MONTE CARLO Sari, Rina Filia; Aprilia, Rima; Widyasari, Rina; Afnaria, Afnaria; Suhaimi, Syech; Putri, Chindy Aulia
Jurnal Pengabdian Mitra Masyarakat Vol 3, No 2 (2024): Edisi Maret
Publisher : Universitas Islam Sumatear Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30743/jurpammas.v3i2.9284

Abstract

In a Government Agency, office stationery supplies are an absolute necessity. The provision of adequate office stationery will facilitate performance. This study aims to predict the demand for office stationery using Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo is a numerical analysis method that uses random number samples. The data used in this study are primary data in the form of the number of stock items and the number of requests for goods from January to December 2023. The accuracy result using the Monte Carlo method for Year 2024 is 91.78%. This shows that the Monte Carlo method simulation can be used to predict the demand for stationery for the following year.
OPTIMISASI RUTE PENGAMBILAN VAKSIN RABIES MENGGUNAKAN BACKWARD RECURSIVE EQUATION Sari, Rina Filia; Putri, Chindy Aulia; Maysarah, Maysarah; Nurfitriah, Ratri; Adawiyah, Robiyatul
Community Development Journal : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 5 No. 2 (2024): Volume 5 No. 2 Tahun 2024
Publisher : Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/cdj.v5i2.26408

Abstract

Vaksin merupakan sebuah racikan atau bahan yang digunakan untuk menstimulus antibodi agar bisa lebih kebal terhadap suatu penyakit. Penyakit ini disebabkan oleh gigitan hewan yang menderita rabies yang ditularkan pada manusia. Di Sumatera Utara pemberian vaksin rabies ini diberikan kepada dinas perkebunan dan peternakan Dinas ini akan mendapatkan kiriman vaksin rabies dari pemerintah pusat di Jakarta. Dikarenakan padatnya pekerjakan membuat bidang tersebut harus menghemat waktu agar semua pekerjaan dapat dilakukan dengan baik. Model Backward Recursive Equation merupakan salah satu model yang ada di dynamic programming. Program Dinamis (dynamic programming) merupakan metode pemecahan masalah dengan cara menguraikan solusi menjadi sekumpulan (stage). Dinas Ketahanan Pangan dan Peternakan ? Nasional Sport ? Kopi Wae Medan ? Simpang Raya Sakumoring Setia Budi ? Universitas Quality ? JNT Express Simpang Pos ? Dinas Perkebunan dan Peternakan Pemerintah Provinsi Sumatera Utara Dengan jarak 13,3 km.