Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 35 Documents
Search

Forecasting Indihome Users By Using Trigonometrics, Box Cox, Transformation, Arma Error, Trend, And Seasonal (TBATS) Methods Hutagalung, Alya Azhrah; Sari, Rina Filia
Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 9 No. 1 (2024): Mathline: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Wiralodra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31943/mathline.v9i1.579

Abstract

The rapid growth in the use of telecommunication services, particularly IndiHome, has created a pressing need to comprehend and forecast the dynamics of user growth. The swift development of IndiHome services in Pematangsiantar underscores the importance of efficiently forecasting and managing user growth. This research aims to predict future IndiHome users using the TBATS method (Trigonometrics, Box Cox Transformation, Arma Error, Trend, and Seasonal). User data for IndiHome services were obtained from Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom) Pematangsiantar. The collected data underwent analysis and interpolation using the TBATS method. The choice of the TBATS method is attributed to its capability to handle complex patterns of seasonality, trends, and variability in telecommunication service usage data. The TBATS method involves model optimization and model validation using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The forecasted results for IndiHome users in the next 5 years, with the highest IndiHome users reaching 426,9432, indicate a reasonable forecasting performance. The accuracy of the forecast, as measured by the MAPE calculation, ranges around 30.5%, signifying that the TBATS method demonstrates a satisfactory forecasting capability for IndiHome user data.
INFLATION RATE ESTIMATION USING HYBRID ARIMA-ADAPTIVE NEURO FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM METHOD Annisa, Nur Alvi; Sari, Rina Filia
Journal of Computer Networks, Architecture and High Performance Computing Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): Article Research January 2025
Publisher : Information Technology and Science (ITScience)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47709/cnahpc.v7i1.5534

Abstract

Inflation is an important issue that affects the economic stability of a country or region. Unstable inflation will have a negative impact on society, especially on commodity prices including food and energy. Inflation is classified as a time series and will usually recur over time, five years later, or ten years later. , the problem of inflation needs to be studied and analyzed using existing approaches in time series. This research focuses on the application of Hybrid ARIMA-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System method for inflation estimation, which is expected to provide a more accurate picture of the price fluctuations of basic needs in North Sumatra. Overall, the results show that the ability of the Hybrid ARIMA-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System method in estimating inflation values is quite good with the results tending to be stable and not experiencing many sharp fluctuations. The inflation value is in the range of around -2.69 to -2.73 throughout the predicted period. However, a continuous negative number indicates a price decline or economic pressure, so further analysis or development is needed to understand the cause. The estimation results may help to maintain stability or make desired changes in the future.
FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF COVID-19 SUFFERERS IN NORTH SUMATRA USING THE AUTOMATIC CLUSTERING FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN METHOD Siregar, Anggi Ramadany; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (508.873 KB) | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.48

Abstract

Corona virus is a virus that is currently endemic throughout the world, including in Indonesia, one of which is in North Sumatra Province, because this virus has claimed many victims. North Sumatra Province in positive cases of Covid-19 is ranked 13th out of 34 provinces in Indonesia. The government's anticipation in handling Covid-19 cases is by forecasting the number of positive Covid-19 cases. One of the methods used to forecast Covid-19 sufferers is the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method. The Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is used to resolve the deviation value from a forecasted value, while Automatic Clustering is used to determine the length of the interval by grouping numerical data. Then the error calculation will be carried out using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to determine the level of accuracy of the forecasting model that has been made. The parameter used in this study is the number of Covid-19 sufferers. The results of this study from data on the number of Covid-19 sufferers have a MAPE value of 4.53%. The MAPE value which is less than 10% means that the forecasting of this study has very good criteria. So the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is very good to be applied in forecasting the number of Covid-19 sufferers in North Sumatra Province.
APPLICATION OF LEAN SIX-SIGMA METHOD AND DEMERIT CHART TO MINIMIZE DEFECTIVE PRODUCT Novia, Ayu; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (442.695 KB) | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.51

Abstract

uality control is a form of inspection using certain techniques or methods in decision-making to get the quality standards that have been determined. One type of quality control is using the method of Lean Six Sigma to identify and eliminate waste in activities that are not worth the added value through a continuous increase to reach the level of Six Sigma, then use the demerit control chart as a monitor of the production process. The purpose of the study was to find out how to minimize defects in the 220ml Aqua cup mineral water packaging with the method of Lean Six Sigma and Demerit control chart. With the analysis that has been done, it is known that in the 220ml Aqua Cup product the DPMO value for defects in the 220ml AQUA Cup production process is 22912.83, which is the level of sigma is 3.43 and the process capabilities value is 0.77087 which mean that it still needs a process control for minimizing the product defects.
IMPLEMENTATION OF SUGENO'S FUZZY LOGIC IN ANALYZING RICE AVAILABILITY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AT PERUM BULOG NORTH SUMATRA Pratiwi, Ria Widiya; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (431.57 KB) | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i2.54

Abstract

During the Covid-19 Pandemic economic activities in North Sumatra experienced problems because many people had been laid off and lost their jobs which made them worried about reaching the staple of rice. So that the government feels the need to provide rice assistance which is directly channeled through BULOG. With this direct social assistance to the community, it could lead to instability in the rice supply and expenditure stocks until at least February 2021. So it is necessary to analyze the availability of rice at Perum BULOG so that the rice stock supply at Perum BULOG remains stable during the Covid-19 Pandemic. With fuzzy logic, Sugeno will present uncertainty, uncertainty, inaccuracy which will then produce a model of a system that is able to estimate the amount of rice supplies during the Covid-19 pandemic. In January, in the calculation of realization from North Sumatra BULOG, the ending inventory was 42,941 tonnes, while the yield from the Sugeno fuzzy method was 34,833.06 tonnes. This shows that there is a mismatch between the amount of income and expenditure of rice.
Penerapan Analisis Lasso dalam Menentukan Penyebab Utama Faktor Kematian Pasien Komorbid yang Terinfeksi Covid-19 Siregar, Agung Lesmana; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3456

Abstract

Tingkat kematian akibat COVID-19 saat ini sangatlah mengkhawatirkan. Pada pasien dengan komorbid (penyakit pembawa) tingkat kematian semakin tinggi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui komorbid apa saja yang berisiko kematian akibat COVID-19 berdasarkan ketepatan datang pengobatan di RSU Haji Kota Medan, dengan menggunakan metode LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator). Keunggulan metode ini adalah mendapatkan hasil koefisien nol atau mendekati nol, yang menyebabkan terseleksinya variabel independen dengan diketahui koefisien dari usia, kadar gula darah, tekanan darah, hemoglobin, kreatinin dan saturasi oksigen. Berdasarkan koefisien hemoglobin memiliki nilai tertinggi dan menjadi variabel independen yang berpengaruh terhadap kematian akibat COVID-19. Hemoglobin dapat mempengaruhi tingkat oksigen di dalam tubuh karena saturasi oksigen adalah presentase hemoglobin yang mengikat oksigen. Jika tekanan hemoglobin turun menyebabkan sesak nafas sampai meyebabkan sesak nafas sampai menyebabkan kematian. Sehingga hemoglobin menjadi variabel independen yang berpengaruh terhadap kematian akibat COVID -19.
Sistem Pengambilan Keputusan Pemilihan Genre Buku Pada Kalangan Generasi Milenial di Kota Medan dengan Metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Rahayu, Tiwi; Sari, Rina Filia; Aprilia, Rima
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Menjembatani Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika menuju Pemanfaatan Berkelanju
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i2.4216

Abstract

Buku merupakan salah satu media untuk memperoleh ilmu pengetahuan dan wawasan yang baru, karena buku ibarat jendela dunia yang mampu menelusuri berbagai penjuru hanya dengan membaca buku. Setiap buku memiliki genre yang beraneka ragam, sehingga dapat menjadi opsi dalam menentukan bahan bacaan yang sesuai dengan minat masing-masing. Untuk mengetahui genre yang diminati dapat menggunakan sistem pengambilan keputusan. Sistem pengambilan keputusan adalah sistem yang mampu memberikan penyelesaian terhadap permasalahan yang ada, sehingga hasil datanya terstruktur. Dalam penelitian ini, data diambil dari referensi terkait dan hasil penyebaran kuesioner kepada Generasi Milenial di Kota Medan. Kemudian data diolah menggunakan metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Karakteristik khusus dari metode AHP ialah menghasilkan variabel yang mempunyai prioritas yang tertinggi sehingga memengaruhi pengambilan keputusan. Berdasarkan penelitian ini menghasilkan urutan kriteria dan alternatif paling prioritas dalam menentukan genre buku yang diminati oleh Generasi Milenial di Kota Medan. Peringkat prioritas kriteria yang tertinggi adalah kualitas dengan nilai 0,319 (31,9 %). Sedangkan peringkat prioritas alternatif yang tertinggi adalah genre self improvement dengan nilai 0,298 (29,8 %).
Analisis Kualitas Tidur Berdasarkan Gaya Hidup Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Tsukamoto Nugroho, Bagus Joyo Tirto; Sari, Rina Filia; Sriani, Sriani
DEVICE : JOURNAL OF INFORMATION SYSTEM, COMPUTER SCIENCE AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Vol 6, No 1: JUNI 2025
Publisher : Universitas Dharmawangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46576/device.v6i1.6256

Abstract

Kualitas tidur mempunyai peranan penting dalam menjaga kesehatan fisik dan mental, serta mempengaruhi kinerja seseorang sehari-hari. Tidur yang cukup dan berkualitas membantu tubuh dalam proses pemulihan, memperkuat sistem kekebalan tubuh, memperbaiki jaringan, dan memulihkan energi. Selain itu, kualitas tidur yang baik dapat menurunkan risiko penyakit kronis seperti diabetes, jantung, dan hipertensi dengan menjaga keseimbangan hormonal dan metabolisme. Salah satu metode yang efektif dalam mengatasi ketidakpastian dan variabilitas data adalah metode fuzzy Tsukamoto. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1) menganalisis pengaruh gaya hidup terhadap kualitas tidur, (2) membangun model prediktif kualitas tidur menggunakan fuzzy Tsukamoto, dan (3) memberikan rekomendasi yang dipersonalisasi untuk meningkatkan kualitas tidur berdasarkan profil gaya hidup individu. Model fuzzy Tsukamoto berhasil diterapkan dalam mengevaluasi kualitas tidur dengan variabel input durasi tidur, aktivitas fisik, detak jantung dan jumlah langkah harian. Dari 374 responden, sebanyak 3,2% (12 responden) memiliki kualitas tidur buruk, 86,9% (325 responden) memiliki kualitas tidur cukup, dan 9,9% (37 responden) memiliki kualitas tidur baik.
Analysis of optimization waste transportation using saving matrix and floyd warshall methods in Binjai Sari, Dinda Permata; Sari, Rina Filia
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v7i1.21887

Abstract

Waste is defined as anything that is not utilized or discarded. Waste is not something that happens by itself; instead, it is a product of human activity. Unresolved problems are often caused by waste. Binjai City's waste problem is one example. In Binjai City, waste transportation is done once a day. The capacity of the truck is only 6–8 m3 or 3-5 tons, so if it is full, the waste is immediately transported to the landfill. Then the collection of waste at each TPS is not possible. Optimization of waste transportation routes using Floyd Warshall and Saving Matrix techniques is one way to overcome this problem. When scheduling cars, the Savings Matrix approach can be used to combine multiple delivery points and take into account the maximum capacity of the vehicle. The Floyd Warshall method is a dynamic programming component that is well suited to solving route optimization problems and can find every potential path between any two locations. Based on an analytical procedure that includes the Floyd Warshall algorithm and the Saving Matrix. These two routes of 29.46 kilometers were first used by the Environmental Agency of Binjai City. 20.63 km is the overall distance when using Saving Matrix, and 23.55 km is the overall distance when using Floyd Warshall. This shows that the Saving Matrix approach is more successful in reducing travel costs and distance.
Spatial Autoregressive Quantile Regression untuk Pemodelan Angka Harapan Hidup di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Marlina, Wenni; Sari, Rina Filia
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 13 Issue 2 August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v13i2.32367

Abstract

Life Expectancy (LE) is a key indicator for assessing the level of public health. North Sumatra Province still faces challenges in improving its LE, which remains below the national average. This study aims to compare three spatial models, namely: SAR, RSAR, and SARQR to model HLI in North Sumatra. Secondary data from 2023 for 33 districts/cities were obtained from the North Sumatra Provincial Statistics Agency, with HLI as the dependent variable and seven independent variables. The analysis began with multiple linear regression and classical assumption tests, followed by the formation of a spatial queen contiguity matrix, spatial effect tests (Moran's Index and Lagrange Multiplier), and modeling using the three spatial regression approaches. The results indicate that SARQR at the 0.1 quantile is the best model with the lowest AIC value (23.7764) and superiority in addressing spatial outliers. Therefore, SARQR at the 0.1 quantile is recommended as the optimal model for modeling AHH in North Sumatra.