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Rizka Hadiwiyanti
Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur
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Journal : Jurnal Riset Informatika

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Forecasting The Highest Number Of Hotel Visitors In Mojokerto Regency Using Arima Model Gading Putri Diniarti; Rizka Hadiwiyanti; Prasasti Karunia F. A
Jurnal Riset Informatika Vol. 7 No. 4 (2025): September 2025
Publisher : Kresnamedia Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (957.874 KB) | DOI: 10.34288/jri.v7i4.388

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the number of hotel visitors in Mojokerto Regency using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model based on monthly data from 2022 to 2024 provided by the Department of Culture, Youth, Sports, and Tourism (Disbudporapar). The research focuses on three hotels with the highest number of visitors: Hotel Grand Whiz, Puri Indah Hotel, and Hotel Arrayana. The implementation was carried out using Python via the Google Colab platform, involving several analytical stages including data stationarity testing (ADF), differencing, identification of ARIMA parameters (p, d, q) using ACF and PACF plots, automatic model estimation with auto ARIMA, and residual diagnostics. Model performance was evaluated using MSE, RMSE, and MAPE. The results show that ARIMA performed best on Puri Indah Hotel data with a MAPE of 9.65%, indicating high accuracy, while performance was lowest for Hotel Arrayana with a MAPE of 32.31%. Visualization of the predictions revealed that ARIMA works effectively for stable patterns but is less adaptive to volatile trends. The implementation of ARIMA proves to be a useful tool in supporting data-driven decision-making for tourism planning and hotel operational strategy in Mojokerto Regency
Co-Authors Abdul Rezha Efrat Najaf Achmad Afandi Achmad Afandi Achmad Afandi Achmad Afandi Achmad Afandi, Achmad Adha, Didan Rizky Adin Nugroho, Himas Agung Brastama Putra Agussalim, Agussalim Alfayza, Dimas Amalia Anjani Arifiyanti Anindo Saka Fitri Arimawan, Kesya Sakha Nesya Asif Faroqi Asyari, Aisha Safa Ayu Ithriah, Syurfah Bagas Adil Putrajaya Budijanto Budijanto Chindy Hanggara Rosa Indah Dhian Satria Yudha Kartika Erlin Ayu Khrisnawati Erlin Ayu Khrisnawati Fadilah, Muhammad Reza Ishadi Farhan, Farrel Farras Hafish Zidane Ferry Kurniawan Ferry Kurniawan Gading Putri Diniarti Hadi Sugiyanto Herowati, Ayu Budy Heowati Indah, Chindy Hanggara Rosa Iqbal Ramadhani Mukhlis Isro Ani Widayanti Kamila, Syafiatul Kamilah, Ismiazzah M.Reza Ishadi Fadilah Marga Kusumantara, Prisa Mohamad Irwan Afandi Muhammad Januar Pribadi Murod, Alfin Murtadho Yanwar, Ringgo Nilwanda, Leona Elsa Noviardi P, Yovika Nugraha, Abrianto Paulus Rah Adi Pawitra Permatasari, Vioneta Zarazsofia Prasasti Karunia F. A Putri, Youlan Indira Radhyana Gayatri Faradilla Ramadhan, Jose Bagus Ratno Susanto Ratno Susanto Ratno Susanto Ridwandono, Doddy Sanyoko, Carisca Rizky Seftin Fitri Ana Wati Simanjorang, Veby Pebiola Br Suci, Tamariska Laras Sugiyanto, Hadi Suryantari, Putu Anggi Susanto, Ratno Titik Purwanti Tri Diana Rimadhani Tri Lathif Mardi Suryanto Uce Indahyanti Wahyuni, Eka Dyar Wasenanto, Bergas Wibowo, Annisa Raudya Wibowo Wibowo, Nur Cahyo Widayanti, Isro Ani Winarno Wisnu Mukti Darwansah Yuskhil Mushofi Yuskhil Mushofi Yusuf Al Ma'ruf, Achmad