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All Journal Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika SoLuSi ( Tersohor Luas dan Berisi ) Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Jurnal SOLMA JIKA: Jurnal Ilmu Keuangan dan Perbankan Value: Jurnal Manajemen dan Akuntansi JP2M (Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Matematika) ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Premium: Insurance Business Journal Jurnal Pijar MIPA Jurnal Sintak Mathematical Sciences and Applications Journal
Anggraeni, Andini Setyo
Institut Teknologi Batam
Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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Forecasting Freight on Board for Gonggong Export in Batam Using Markov Chain Anggraeni, Andini Setyo; Jabnabillah, Faradiba; Reza, Widya; Cahya Wati, Dia
Jurnal Pijar Mipa Vol. 19 No. 3 (2024): May 2024
Publisher : Department of Mathematics and Science Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, University of Mataram. Jurnal Pijar MIPA colaborates with Perkumpulan Pendidik IPA Indonesia Wilayah Nusa Tenggara Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jpm.v19i3.6534

Abstract

As an archipelagic country, Indonesia has great potential in the fisheries sector. As a free trade zone, Batam is important in exporting fishery products. One of the fishery export products in Batam City is gonggong snails. It is a favorite seafood item in Riau Islands Province and has high economic value. However, previous studies focused more on the content of gonggong snails and their industrial feasibility; there has been no specific research on the analysis of gonggong snail exports in Batam City, even though gonggong snails are one of Batam City's export products. In this research, we will forecast the freight on board (FoB) value for gonggong exports in Batam City using a discrete-time Markov chain with two states: above and below the moving average. There are several types of moving averages, including simple moving averages and weighted moving averages. An initial analysis will determine the moving averages' type and duration following the Gonggong export FOB data in Batam. The data used is the Gonggong export FoB data for Batam City from January 2020 to November 2023. Based on this data, the transition probability matrix will be calculated based on the number of export transitions below and above the Weighted Moving Average 6 (WMA 6) value. Limiting probability from the Markov chain will be used to predict the long-term FOB value of fishery product exports up to steady-state conditions. It was found that steady-state conditions would be reached after 17 months, with a probability of FOB exports below WMA6 of 55.06% and FOB exports above WMA6 of 44.94%.
Co-Authors Alhamidi, Alhamidi Ananda, Serly Tri Aprilla Handayani, Vitri Budiyono, Budiyono Devikaduri, Laras Dia Cahya Wati Eko Sulistyono Sulistyono Fadilah, Alya Handayani*, Vitri Aprilla Handayani, Vitri Aprilla Ismi Rizqa Lina Jabnabillah, Faradiba Lunardi, Louis Muhammad Agus Muljanto munir, Zainul Munir Nabillah, Faradiba Nahrul Hayati Nur Asikin Pramesti, Getut Puri Rahayu Nengsi Putri, Tia Aura Rifki Chandra Utama Ririt Dwiputri Permatasari Risa Mustika Rusmadi, Garry Sabarinsyah, Sabarinsyah Sadiq Ardo Wibowo, Sadiq Ardo Safitriyana, Safitriyana Tarsila, Huiliana Taufiq Rahman Utama, Rifki Chandra Utami, Arli Magfirah Widya Reza