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All Journal EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Bakti Sekawan : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Sains Natural Al-Aqlu : Jurnal Matematika, Teknik dan Sains Semeton Mathematics Journal
Robbaniyyah, Nuzla Af'idatur
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RICE HARVEST AREA FORECASTING USING MOVING AVERAGE METHOD FOR FOOD SECURITY PLANNING Maharani, Andika Ellena Saufika Hakim; Andriani, Helmina; Robbaniyyah, Nuzla Af'idatur; Salwa; Fatanaya, Nafika
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 13 No. 3 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v13n3.p29-36

Abstract

Ensuring food security is a key part of sustainable development in Indonesia, especially since rice remains the country's staple crop. In regions like West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province, where rice harvest areas can vary significantly, having accurate forecasts is essential for effective planning. This study explores historical data on rice harvest areas in NTB to forecast future trends, uncover seasonal patterns, and assess long-term changes. To do this, we apply and compare three forecasting methods: Simple Moving Average (SMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Their performance is evaluated using accuracy measures such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), with results also presented visually to support data-driven decision-making. Among the methods tested, EMA with a 3-period window (EMA-3) produced the most accurate forecasts. This is reflected in its lower RMSE and MAPE values compared to the other methods. Based on the MAPE results, EMA-3 proves to be a reliable method for forecasting rice harvest areas in NTB.
Co-Authors Abdullah, Umar Abdurahim, Abdurahim Al Paqih, Muhammad Imam Anjani, Mutia Dewi Az-Zahra, Al Farrah Choirunnisa, Fajarani Dani, Ifan Hasnan Fatanaya, Nafika Haizar, Maulana Rifky Hamdiah, Yulinda Raudatul Hardi, Rida Al Kausar Hardi, Rida Alkausar Harsyiah, Lisa Helmina Andriani Hidayatullah, Azka Farris Hidayatunnisa, Nurul Irwansyah Irwansyah Ivan Luthfi Ihwani, Ivan Luthfi Karang, Gusti Yogananda Kusuma, Shendy Arya Lailia Awalushaumi Lailia Awalushaumi, Lailia Lansuna, Ni Wayan Eka Maharani, Andika Ellena Saufika Hakim Malasso, Dede Ambiya Marwan Marwan Maulani, Septia Hasna Muhammad Rijal Alfian Muliyanti, Annisa Sri Pajri, Dwi Hafizatul Pradana, Satriawan Qurratul Aini Ramadhan, Fitrah Ramadhan, Hikmal Maulana Rani Maharani Rayes, Putri Rahmasari Rio Satriyantara Rizki, Miptahul Salwa Salwa Salwa Satryantara, Rio Septiawan, Redza Dwi Setiawati Setiawati Syamsul Bahri Tri Maryono Rusadi Ulatalita, Nabila Anzela Ulfa, Kurnia Uluwi, Ahmad Ihsan Yumni Awanis, Zata Zahro, Uswatun Az Zikri, Lalu Muhammad Faiz Zulhan Widya Baskara