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All Journal Pythagoras: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Bisnis SIGMA: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Prosiding Seminar Nasional Darmajaya Jurnal Bisnis Darmajaya Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen J-PiMat : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Jurnal Dharma Bhakti Ekuitas TEACHING : Jurnal Inovasi Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan LEARNING : Jurnal Inovasi Penelitian Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Mathematics and Applications (MAp) Journal Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal Formosa Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (FJMR) Lemma: Letters of Mathematics Education
Ana Risqa JL
Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung
Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Forecasting Fluctuating Salt Product Demand Using ARIMAX with Price-Based Exogenous Information Lutfiyah, Lufi; Rinaldi, Achi; JL, Ana Risqa
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026): Desimal
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/

Abstract

Accurate demand forecasting is essential for salt-processing enterprises because fluctuating demand can affect production planning, inventory control, and distribution efficiency. This study examines the demand for table salt products at CV Restu Ibu by applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model using product price as an external predictor. Monthly sales and price data for 1 kg, 2 kg, and 4 kg packaging sizes from January 2018 to December 2025 were analyzed through the Box–Jenkins procedure, including stationarity testing, model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, forecast evaluation, and projection for 2026–2028. The results show that all demand series became stationary after first-order differencing. The best models were ARIMAX (2,1,1) for the 1 kg product, ARIMAX (1,1,1) for the 2 kg product, and ARIMAX (0,1,1) for the 4 kg product. Diagnostic testing using the Ljung–Box test confirmed that all selected models satisfied the white-noise residual assumption. The forecasting accuracy was excellent, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error values of 2.363%, 2.824%, and 1.559%, respectively. The forecast results indicate a declining demand trend for the 1 kg product, an increasing trend for the 2 kg product, and a fluctuating pattern for the 4 kg product. These findings demonstrate that incorporating price information improves the representation of demand dynamics and supports product-specific forecasting for price-sensitive salt products. The study also confirms that packaging size produces heterogeneous demand behavior, making differentiated forecasting more appropriate than a single aggregate demand model in practice.
Co-Authors Achi Rinaldi Alda, Trilisa Anindhita, Wike Arini Alhaq Indriani, Wiwid Afma Kholis, Arief Wildan Lutfiyah, Lufi Nanang Supriadi Netriwati Novian Riskiana Dewi Putri, Aisyah Sabila Rahmita, Nela Riyama Ambarwati Rizki Wahyu Yunian Putra SANIAH, RATNA Sari, Anggun Lupita Siska Andriani Siti Ulfa Nabila Sri Purwanti Nasution, Sri Purwanti Trilisa Alda Tuti Maryani Veithzal Rivai Zainal Viola De Yusa Viola De Yusa Wahyu Hidayat Tullah Yusa, Viola De Yusa, Viola De