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Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Published by Universitas Pattimura
ISSN : 28296303     EISSN : 28296303     DOI : https://doi.org/10.30598/parameterv3i01y2024
Core Subject : Education,
Mathematics
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya is an open access journal (e-journal) published since April 2022. Parameteris published by Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Pattimura. Parameterpublished scientific articles on various aspects related to mathematics and statistics and its application. Articles can be in the form of research results, case studies, or literature reviews.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Matematika Terapan
Articles 95 Documents
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FORECASTING RICE PRODUCTION WITH THE HOLT-WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD Salamah, Nur; Intahaya, Ari Maulidah; Alfiani, Faradillah Siska; Ummah, Hidayatul; Fadhlia, Zahrotul Wardah; Isro'il, Ahmad
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp141-152

Abstract

This study aims to forecast rice production in East Java using the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method which can be used to view data with seasonal and trend patterns. The rice production data used in this study comes from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) which includes production data for the last five years. The results of the analysis show that this method provides a sufficient level of accuracy in forecasting and is also effective in providing estimates of rice production as well as assisting in strategic decision-making on the management of the agricultural sector and food security.
FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE STUDENT STRES LEVELS IN COMPLETING THESIS USING ORDINAL LOGISTIK REGRESSION Purwaningsi, Asih; Afandi, Fikry Wira; Saragih, Fani Imelda Br; Anggeraini, Maulida
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp111-122

Abstract

Environmental pressure that exceeds a person's capacity can cause stress. Writing a thesis at UINSU causes varying levels of stress. However, stress that cannot be determined will improve student performance. This study investigates the factors influencing the stress levels of thesis students at the State Islamic University of North Sumatra (UINSU) using ordinal logistic regression. The findings reveal that self-mootivation significantly increases stress levels by 2.6 times compared to students who do not consistently motivate themselves. The study provides insights intro how students can manage academic stress effectively.
APPLICATION OF THE ARIMA MODEL IN FORECASTING ETHEREUM PRICES Mangiwa, Romario Desouza Daniel; Siregar, Revina; Sari, Seli Delima; Agustina, Neli
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp81-94

Abstract

Ethereum is one of the leading cryptocurrencies utilizing blockchain technology for peer-to-peer financial transactions. This study aims to forecast Ethereum's price using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)model. Historical price data from January 1, 2023, to January 15, 2025, covering 534 periods, was analyzed. The ARIMA (0,1,9) model was selected based on AIC, SC, and Adjusted R-squared criteria, with forecast evaluation showing a Mean Absolute PercentageError (MAPE) of 15.01% and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 649.702. Forecast results indicate an upward trend in Ethereum's price over the next 30 periods, with fluctuations being less pronounced compared to historical data. The study concludes that ARIMA provides reasonably accurate short-term predictions, although forecasting errors increase with longer prediction periods. These findings can serve as a reference for investors in developing short-term investment strategies for Ethereum.
COMPARISON OF FUZZY LOGIC METHODS OF MAMDANI AND SUGENO IN DETERMINING THE ELIGIBILITY VALUE OF KIP-KULIAH SCHOLARSHIP RECIPIENTS Latuconsina, Umi Aulia Vasa; Leleury, Zeth Arthur; Tilukay, Meilin Imelda; Haumahu, Gabriella
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp55-62

Abstract

The government through the KIP-Kuliah program provides educational assistance to students from underprivileged families who continue their education at university. Although this program aims to increase access to higher education, there are several problems in its implementation, such as inaccuracy in determining the eligibility of scholarship recipients. This study aims to determine and compare the eligibility of KIP-Kuliah scholarship recipients in the UNPATTI Mathematics Study Program using the Fuzzy logic method of Mamdani and Sugeno, which considers factors such as parental dependents, parental income, and diploma grades. The calculation results show that the level of accuracy of the Mamdani method is 75.64% and the Sugeno method is 95.15%. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the Sugeno method provides a better level of accuracy than the Mamdani method in determining the eligibility of KIP-Kuliah scholarship recipients in the UNPATTI Mathematics Study Program.
TREND ANALYSIS OF EARLY MARRIAGE CASES IN SOUTH SULAWESI USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE FOR STUNTING SOLUTION Astuti, Astuti; Sanusi, Wahidah; Annas, Suwardi
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp153-166

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to use the VARmodel to predict and project the number of early marriage cases in South Sulawesi for the upcoming year. The data used in this analysis comes from the Dinas Pemberdayaan, Perlindungan Perempuan dan Anak, and the Pengadilan Tinggi Agama Makassar, covering the period from January 2017 to September 2024. The results indicate that the VAR(2) model is the best choice according to the AIC for determining the optimal lag length. To examine the relationships between variables, a Granger causality test was conducted for each district and city. The findings reveal significant causal relationships in most districts, suggesting that changes in one district can influence early marriage trends in others. The MAE method was used to calculate the prediction error. Some regions, such as Sengkang, Pangkajene, and Pare-Pare, showed an increasing trend in the projected number of early marriage cases from October 2024 to September 2025. In contrast, Barru and Masamba experienced a decline in these cases. Reducing early marriages could help lower rates of stunting, as early marriage is often linked to maternal and child health issues as well as malnutrition. These findings are valuable for developing effective policies aimed at reducing early marriage and its associated consequences for the people of South Sulawesi.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS OF EULER, RK-4, ABM-4 AND RKCOM4 METHODS OF INITIAL VALUE PROBLEMS IN NONHOMOGENEOUS SECOND ORDER DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS Lesnussa, Yopi Andry; Marsudi, Marsudi
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp123-140

Abstract

Non-homogeneous second-order differential equations are often used in various mathematical models in physics, engineering, and system dynamics. Numerical solutions are the main alternative when analytical solutions are difficult to obtain. This study compares the performance of the Euler, Runge-Kutta 4th order (RK-4), Adams-Bashforth-Moulton 4th order (ABM-4), and Runge-Kutta Contra Harmonic Mean 4 (RKCoM4) numerical methodsin solving initial value problems (MNAs) in non-homogeneous second-order differential equations. The analysis was carried out by comparing the numerical calculation results of each method using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) method. The results of numerical calculations and simulations show that the RK-4 and ABM4 methods provide higher accuracy than the Euler and RKCoM4 methods for 2 cases of non-homogeneous second-order differential equations
ANALYSIS OF EDUCATION FUNDING ALLOCATION AND STUDENT ENROLLMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SMA AND SMK STUDENTS IN INDONESIA : RM MANOVA APPROACH Zahwa, Aniq Farichatus; Ramadhani, Dafinah; Wara, Shindi Shella May; Damaliana, Aviolla Terza
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp167-174

Abstract

The Indonesia Smart Program (PIP) is one of the government's efforts to improve access to education for underprivileged students. The purpose of this study is to examine how PIP educational aid was distributed and how successful it was in Indonesia in 2022 at the Senior High School (SMA) and Vocational High School (SMK) levels. The method used is Repeated Measures Multivariate Analysis of Variance (RM Manova) for education. The research data was obtained from the official government data portal of Indonesia (data.go.id). The results of the study do not show any significant differences in the distribution of assistance between SMA and SMK across various regions. Further research is needed to consider other factors that may have an impact.
IDENTIFICATION OF DOMINANT FACTORS IN STUNTING CASE NARRATIVES USING PCA AND SVD APPROACHES Chrisinta, Debora; Simarmata, Justin Eduardo; Baldemor, Milagros R.; Purnomo, Miko
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp11-28

Abstract

Stunting remains a serious public health concern in Indonesia, exacerbated by the limited public understanding of its causes and prevention strategies. This study analyzes public perceptions of stunting based on reviews collected through web scraping from the 2023 Indonesian Health Survey (SKI). Text preprocessing techniques, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) analysis, and dimensionality reduction using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) were applied to a dataset comprising 21 reviews. The results indicate that PCA outperforms SVD in simplifying the relationships among key terms, as evidenced by a lower reconstruction error (0.003861 compared to 0.004232). The dominant factors influencing public perception include education, sanitation, and socio-economic conditions. These findings highlight the critical role of data-driven and visual-based educational strategies in enhancing public awareness and accelerating stunting prevention efforts.
ESTIMATION OF COCONUT HARVEST YIELDS IN NORTH MALUKU PROVINCE USING THE ADAMS-BASHFORTH-MOULTON METHOD Pattipeiohy, Majesty; Wattimena, Abraham Z.; Rijoly, Monalisa E.
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp01-10

Abstract

The present research applies the Verhulst growth model and the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton numerical method to estimate coconut harvest yields in North Maluku Province. Using coconut harvest data from 2019 to 2023 obtained from Badan Pusat Statistika(BPS), the model was initialized through the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method to generate four initial values. These values were then used in the ABM method to predict yields for the period 2024 to 2033. The simulation results show a slow growth in harvestyields from 2024 to 2026, with an average increase of approximately 0.003% per year, followed by a significant increase in 2027. After that, the harvest yields stabilize near the carrying capacity of approximately 432,600 tons. In contrast, a notable decrease of 1.923% in coconut harvest yields was observed between 2022 and 2023, highlighting fluctuations prior to stabilization and confirming the characteristic behavior of the Verhulst model in modeling population or production dynamics.The results of this study can serve as a foundation for more effective agricultural production planning, supply chain optimization, and the formulation of food security policies in North Maluku Province. By understanding the growth patterns of harvest yields, local governments and industry stakeholders can design more targeted distribution and investment strategies.
THE SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR A MULTIPLICATIVE DERIVATION IN THE JORDAN RING TO BE ADDITIVE Adrianus, Karen Isye; Batkunde, Harmanus; Patty, Dyana
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i1pp95-110

Abstract

Derivation is a mapping from a set to itself. There are two types of derivations in rings: ordinary derivation and Jordan derivation. Given a triangular matrix ring T, a non-associative ring can be formed, known as a Jordan ring T. Subsequently, on the Jordan ring T, a derivation can be defined, referred to as derivation in the Jordan ring T. This paper provides the conditions that must be met for a multiplication derivation on the Jordan ring T to be additive. Furthermore, the ring T must be 2-torsion-free so that the derivation on the Jordan ring becomes a Jordan derivation on the ring T.

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