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Prediksi harga minyak mentah WTI dengan menggunakan metode Garch dalam ancaman perang dunia III Lestari, Tri; Andriani, Putri; Gunawan, Didik; Cahyadi, Willy
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i1.1778

Abstract

This research aims to forecast fluctuations in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil within the potential threat of World War III by utilizing the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) method. Using daily closing price data of WTI crude oil from January 2022 to March 2025, consisting of 850 observations, this study employs the ARIMA-GARCH model to capture the patterns and volatility of the time series data. Based on the conducted analysis, it is concluded that the ARIMA (2,1,2) and GARCH (1,1) models demonstrate optimal performance, with a MAPE value of 13.71%, indicating a good prediction accuracy level. The forecast for the next two years shows a trend of price increases starting from Q2 2025 through Q4 2027. This research demonstrates how geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern Conflicts, can affect global oil price volatility while highlighting the GARCH model’s effectiveness in capturing heteroskedasticity in highly fluctuating financial data.
Characterization of Alginate Beads from Biolectric Producing Thermophilic Bacterial Cells Andriani, Putri; Irdawati, Irdawati
Jurnal Biologi Tropis Vol. 25 No. 2 (2025): April-Juni
Publisher : Biology Education Study Program, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, University of Mataram, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jbt.v25i2.8828

Abstract

Cell immobilization is one of the important techniques in biotechnology to increase the stability and viability of microorganisms during the application process. This study aims to characterize the shape, color, size, and number of colonies of beads resulting from the immobilization of four electrogenic thermophilic bacterial isolates (SSA1, SSA8, SSA14, and SSA16) using sodium alginate as a matrix. The immobilization technique was carried out through the ionic gelation method using 0.2 M CaClâ‚‚, with a concentration of 5% sodium alginate. The results showed that all isolates formed beads with round morphology and clear yellowish color indicating the success of the gelation process and no contamination. The diameter of the beads ranged from 3.8 mm to 4.6 mm, with SSA16 having the largest size. The highest number of colonies was found in SSA14 (147 colonies), followed by SSA16 (140), SSA1 (138), and SSA8 (125). There was a positive correlation between the size of the beads and the number of colonies, indicating that isolates with larger matrix space could accommodate more cells without interfering with metabolic activity. These results suggest that SSA14 and SSA16 have the most optimized physical characteristics of beads for application in Microbial Fuel Cell (MFC) systems.
Penguatan Branding UMKM Desa Melalui Digitalisasi Pemetaan Google Maps Pada Program KKN OK, Azizah Hanum; Parulian, Unggul; Lismawarni, Lismawarni; Husna, Trisna Aulia; Andriani, Putri
EDU SOCIETY: JURNAL PENDIDIKAN, ILMU SOSIAL DAN PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): June-September 2025
Publisher : Association of Islamic Education Managers (Permapendis) Indonesia, North Sumatra Province

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56832/edu.v5i2.1655

Abstract

Penelitian ini merupakan laporan pelaksanaan program pengabdian masyarakat melalui kegiatan Kuliah Kerja Nyata (KKN) dengan fokus pada penguatan branding Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) di Desa Nagori Senio, Kabupaten Simalungun, melalui digitalisasi pendaftaran usaha ke Google Maps. Sebagian besar pelaku UMKM masih mengandalkan metode promosi konvensional seperti pemasaran dari mulut ke mulut dan penjualan langsung, sehingga jangkauan pasar mereka terbatas. Untuk menjawab permasalahan tersebut, program KKN mendampingi pelaku usaha dalam mendaftarkan usahanya ke Google Maps dan Google Business Profile agar lebih mudah ditemukan oleh konsumen.Kegiatan yang dilakukan meliputi sosialisasi, pendampingan langsung, serta praktik pendaftaran secara bertahap dengan penyesuaian terhadap hambatan yang muncul, seperti keterbatasan pengetahuan digital dan penolakan awal dari sebagian pelaku usaha. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan bahwa beberapa UMKM berhasil didaftarkan secara resmi ke Google Maps sehingga visibilitas usaha meningkat, informasi mengenai lokasi dan produk lebih mudah diakses masyarakat, serta kesadaran pelaku usaha tentang pentingnya digitalisasi semakin bertambah. Selain itu, program ini juga mendorong kolaborasi antara mahasiswa, pelaku usaha, dan masyarakat dalam mendukung transformasi digital desa.Secara keseluruhan, kegiatan ini membuktikan bahwa digitalisasi melalui pemetaan Google Maps dapat menjadi strategi promosi yang efektif dan rendah biaya dalam memperkuat branding UMKM. Lebih jauh lagi, program ini turut mendukung terbentuknya ekosistem digital di pedesaan untuk mendorong kemandirian ekonomi lokal dan menghadapi persaingan pasar yang semakin kompetitif.