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All Journal Journal of Management and Islamic Finance International Journal of Social Science, Education, Communication and Economics Jurnal Ekonomika Dan Bisnis E-journal Field of Economics, Business and Entrepreneurship (EFEBE) JEBD Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Dan Bisnis (JEMB) BEGAWI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Nemui Nyimah
Imam Awaluddin
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Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Nilai Tukar Rupiah Riil Equilibrium Sebelum dan Selama Masa Krisis Awaluddin, Imam
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This study concerns about how much economic factors have impact on real exchange rate equilibrium and how much exchange rate misalignment occurs. The objective is to find the level of rzal exchange rate equilibrium before and during the crisis. Real exchange rate equilibrium is founded from Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach. From regression estimation we will find real exchange rate equilibrium, which will be compared with actual real exchange rate. The result is real exchange rate misalignment or deviation of real exchange rate from its equilibrium level.
Pengaruh Kurs, Keterbukaan Perdagangan, Produktivitas, Kredit Domestik Terhadap Volume Ekspor di Negara ASEAN Teresia Icha Oktaviana; Imam Awaluddin; Mega Mariska
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Digital Vol. 3 No. 3 (2026): Januari - Maret
Publisher : CV. ITTC INDONESIA

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Abstract

The ASEAN region has experienced rapid trade growth, but differences in export performance persist among member countries. These differences are related to variations in exchange rate stability, trade openness, labor productivity, and access to domestic financing. This study aims to analyze the effects of exchange rates, trade openness indices, productivity, and domestic credit on export volume in eight ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Brunei Darussalam, over the period 2010–2024, using quarterly data. The method used is the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) model with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach to identify short-run and long-run relationships. The analysis steps include stationarity tests, cointegration tests, and long-run coefficient estimation and adjustment mechanisms. The results indicate a long-run relationship between the variables. Overall, the trade openness index, productivity, and domestic credit have a positive effect on export volume, while the exchange rate has a negative effect in the long run. In the short run, trade openness has a positive effect, while the exchange rate, productivity, and domestic credit have a negative effect. These results confirm that increased production competitiveness and domestic financial support are crucial factors in strengthening regional export performance. These findings are expected to serve as considerations for relevant parties for further development and learning. The ASEAN region has experienced rapid trade growth, but differences in export performance persist among member countries. These differences are related to variations in exchange rate stability, trade openness, labor productivity, and access to domestic financing. This study aims to analyze the effects of exchange rates, trade openness indices, productivity, and domestic credit on export volume in eight ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Brunei Darussalam, over the period 2010–2024, using quarterly data. The method used is the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) model with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach to identify short-run and long-run relationships. The analysis steps include stationarity tests, cointegration tests, and long-run coefficient estimation and adjustment mechanisms. The results indicate a long-run relationship between the variables. Overall, the trade openness index, productivity, and domestic credit have a positive effect on export volume, while the exchange rate has a negative effect in the long run. In the short run, trade openness has a positive effect, while the exchange rate, productivity, and domestic credit have a negative effect. These results confirm that increased production competitiveness and domestic financial support are crucial factors in strengthening regional export performance. These findings are expected to serve as considerations for relevant parties for further development and learning.
Penerapan Augmented Taylor Rule pada Kebijakan Suku Bunga: Periode Sebelum Selama dan Pasca Krisis Awaluddin, Imam; Fadhilah, Indah
Jurnal Ekonomika Dan Bisnis (JEBS) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Maret-April
Publisher : CV. ITTC INDONESIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47233/jebs.v6i2.4500

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic created major economic disruption and global uncertainty, questioning the reliability of the conventional Taylor Rule in guiding monetary policy. This study aims to examine changes in Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy reaction function across three phases: before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study applies an Augmented Taylor Rule specification incorporating the inflation gap, output gap, real effective exchange rate (REER), and the Federal Funds Rate. Using a quantitative approach, monthly macroeconomic data from November 2014 to September 2025 are obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Central Statistics Agency, and international financial databases. The sample is divided into pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. Data are analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. The findings indicate that monetary policy behavior varies across phases. Prior to the pandemic, the policy rate response is largely inflation-oriented with limited sensitivity to output fluctuations. During the crisis, the reaction function becomes more flexible, responding to domestic economic contraction and external pressures. In the post-pandemic period, policy gradually normalizes, although global interest rates remain relevant. Overall, the results suggest that Bank Indonesia’s policy rule is adaptive to changing macroeconomic conditions rather than structurally fixed.
Co-Authors Alamsyah, Rizki Andrian, Thomas Arivina Ratih Yulihar Taher Celvin Hamid, Muhammad Dian Fajarini Emi Maimunah Fadhilah, Indah Fajarini, Dian Hamid, Muhammad Celvin Intan Anisa Irma Febriana MK Mawarni, Diana Mega Mariska Muhammad Husaini Muhammad Rayhan Iqbal Pratama Murwiati, Asih Musfik Amrullah Nadya Ruth Rezeki Sitanggang Nurbetty Herlina Sitorus Perdana, Ferdi Septiawan Putri, Reisyah Marisca Resha Moniyana Putri Sukma Purmadin Teresia Icha Oktaviana Thomas Andrian Tiara Nirmala Toto Gunarto Tri Purwaningsih, Vitriyani Wiryawan, Driya Zulfa Emalia Zulfa Emalia