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All Journal HAYATI Journal of Biosciences Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia (Indonesian Journal of Agronomy) Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Jurnal Hortikultura Indonesia (JHI) Agromet Forum Pasca Sarjana Indonesian Journal of Geography Jurnal Kependidikan: Penelitian Inovasi Pembelajaran Jurnal Agrista TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) AGRIVITA, Journal of Agricultural Science Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis dan Manajemen (JABM) E-Journal EnviroScienteae JPT : JURNAL PROTEKSI TANAMAN (JOURNAL OF PLANT PROTECTION) Journal of Tropical Crop Science International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences (IJReSES) Jurnal Entomologi Indonesia JURNAL METEOROLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA JURNAL PANGAN Jurnal Ilmiah Inovasi Planta Simbiosa : Jurnal Tanaman Pangan dan Hortikultura International Journal of Disaster Management Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika The International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences (IJReSES)

Yonny Koesmaryono

Agrometeorology Division, Department Of Geophysics And Meteorology, Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Sciences, IPB University, Campus IPB Dramaga, Indonesia

Author-ID : 2445581

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Environmental Science Immunology & microbiology Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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VARIABILITAS INTERANNUAL HUJAN MONSUN INDONESIA: REVIEW ARTIKEL TENTANG PENGARUH GAYA EKSTERNALNYA Mulsandi, Adi; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Hidayat, Rahmat; Faqih, Akhmad; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol. 24 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v24i2.1049

The IMR variability is notorious for its hydrometeorological disasters. This paper examines recent studies on IMR and the main factors controlling its variability. The focus of this study is to investigate the impact of the atmosphere-ocean interaction that acts as the external forcing of IMR in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Specifically, the study will examine the influence of two climate phenomena, namely the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and their interdecadal changes associated Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), on the IMR. The review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach. Furthermore, data sets (such as rainfall, wind field, and SST) spanning 1990-2020 were used to verify the key findings. In general, this study concludes that the majority of the authors coincided with the following conclusion: ENSO and IOD events impact IMR by changing its amplitude, duration, intensity, and frequency of mean and extreme rainfall. Additionally, it has been shown that their impacts on IMR are most substantial during the dry seasons, specifically in June, July, and August (JJA), and not as strong as during the wet seasons, specifically in December, January, and February (DJF). Spatially, the effects of ENSO and IOD on IMR variability are clearly found more eastward and westward of the region, respectively. The expansions towards the east and west directions were facilitated by the displacement of the ascending and descending of Walker circulation patterns in the Indonesian region, respectively. Given the interannual fluctuations in IMR, caused mainly by ocean-atmosphere interactions, the knowledge gap of atmospheric factors like the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) must be investigated in the future, as suggested by previous research and our preliminary study.

Projection of further expansion of oil palm plantation in Jambi Province June, Tania; Ma'rufah, Ummu; Faqih, Ahmad; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Ali, Ashehad Aswen; Knohl, Alexander
Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) Vol 13 No 3 (2023): Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (JPSL)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian Lingkungan Hidup, IPB (PPLH-IPB) dan Program Studi Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan, IPB (PS. PSL, SPs. IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jpsl.13.3.484-493

The expansion of oil palm plantations has become of global concern. Jambi province in Indonesia is one of the regions experiencing a rapid shift in land use, and oil palm plantation, settlement, and agriculture has emerged as the primary force behind this shift. This study aims to project scenarios of future land-use change and expansion of oil palm plantation in Jambi Province in 2030, 2060, and 2100. Projections of land-use change scenarios are conducted using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) in which Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) is the model base. The validation of model against historic land-use changes showed an overall kappa value of 0.97. In the no-conservation scenario assuming a continuation of the trends from 1990 to 2011, the forest area is continuing to decrease. . Oil palm would replace forest as dominant land-use cover in Jambi Province in 2100. Driving factors explaining the spatial distribution of oil palm plantation expansion include distance from forest, distance from road, and elevation. Our study shows the importance of government regulations to to slow or stop deforestation especially for forests near plantations.

Pendugaan Kehilangan Hasil pada Tanaman Padi Rebah Akibat Terpaan Angin Kencang dan Curah Hujan Tinggi ,, Dulbari; Santosa, Edi; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Sulistyono, dan Eko
Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia (Indonesian Journal of Agronomy) Vol. 46 No. 1 (2018): Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia
Publisher : Indonesia Society of Agronomy (PERAGI) and Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia

AbstractRice lodging due to incident of extreme weather, i.e., combination of strong winds and high rainfall is eviden in Indonesia. However, yield loss in the area is rarely studied. In order to estimate yield loss on rice, a model for calculating the yield reduction was developed. The objective of present study was to analyze the effect of strong winds and high rainfall incidents on yield loss of rice in the field. The study was conducted at the Sawah Baru IPB, Bogor, Indonesia from February to April, 2016 on rice plots severe from natural incident of strong wind and high rainfall. The results showed that rice lodging from strong wind and high rainfall formed patterns and specific formations. We determined four major lodging formations, five lodging degrees, and eleven different patterns due to wind direction. Overall, lodging occured on research area of 27.6% with production loss up to 11.89%. This research showed that estimation of yield loss due to incident of extreme weather could be conducted in the level of field based on area of coverage and degree of lodging. Application of the model on wider area needs further evaluation. Keywords: Agronomic character, extreme weather adaptation, modelling, lodging, rice variety

Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim Koem, Syahrizal; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Impron, Impron
Jurnal Entomologi Indonesia Vol 11 No 1 (2014): April
Publisher : Perhimpunan Entomologi Indonesia

Rice stem borer abundance are largely influenced by climate. This research aims to (i) develop a population dynamic model of yellow stem borer (YSB) and (ii) to assess the model's ability to predict abundance and population peak of YSB under climate change scenario SRES A1FI and B1. Modeling the YSB requires two major components: climate parameter and lower developmental threshold temperatures (To) to describe life cycle of YSB from the egg, larva, pupa, and adult stages. The research utilized DYMEX software to describe development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one to the next life stages, fecundity and reproduction of YSB. The coefficient of determination (R2) of calibration models between predictions and observations showed a strong positive correlation of 0.65. Model validation could well predict the peak population, with R2 = 0.42. The simulations showed that the trend of population peak occur at high rainfall i.e. in March to April, July to September, and November to December. The model predicted YSB population in the Sukamandi reaches 3 generations per year, while in Kuningan 2 generations per year. Simulation models under climate change scenarios SRES A1FI and B1 showed differences in the sensitivities. Trend of YSB population is increasing in the regions Kuningan and decreasing in region Sukamandi. Under changing climate, environment conditions in Kuningan become more suitable for the proliferation of YSB, allowing an increase in the number of generations per year.

Analisis pengaruh faktor cuaca terhadap dinamika populasi wereng batang coklat (Nilaparvata lugens Stål) yang tertangkap lampu perangkap Sofyan, Devied Apriyanto; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Hidayati, Rini
Jurnal Entomologi Indonesia Vol 16 No 1 (2019): March
Publisher : Perhimpunan Entomologi Indonesia

Nilaparvata lugens Stí¥l (brown planthopper [BPH]) is one of the major pests that cause a decline in rice productions. BPH population abundance in rice crops is affected by weather factors. An early indication of the BPH population abundance in the crop can be seen from the number of captured BPH on light traps. This study aims to analyze the influence of weather factors on the population dynamics of BPH, caught by the light traps. The method analysis used is correlation analysis and linear regression analysis. When multicollinearity problems occur among the weather factors, the influence was analyzed using principal component regression method. The result showed that rainfall, minimum humidity, and rainy days have a strong correlation to the BPH population dynamics. Based on subset tests between these three factors, two best factors were chosen, namely the rainy days and minimum humidity. The regression equation between rainy days and minimum humidity against the BPH population clearly describes the relationship of BPH population that increases along with the increase in the number of rainy days accompanied by the fluctuation of minimum humidity in the environment.

UTILIZATION OF NEAR REAL-TIME NOAA-AVHRR SATELLITE OUTPUT FOR EL NIÃ‘O INDUCED DROUGHT ANALYSIS IN INDONESIA (CASE STUDY: EL NIÃ‘O 2015 INDUCED DROUGHT IN SOUTH SULAWESI) Amsari Mudzakir Setiawan; Yonny Koesmaryono; Akhmad Faqih; Dodo Gunawan
International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences Vol. 13 No. 2 (2016)
Publisher : BRIN

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30536/j.ijreses.2016.v13.a2450

Drought is becoming one of the most important issues for government and policy makers. National food security highly concerned, especially when drought occurred in food production center areas. Climate variability, especially in South Sulawesi as one of the primary national rice production centers is influenced by global climate phenomena such as El NiÃ±o Southern Oscillation or ENSO. This phenomenon can lead to drought occurrences. Monitoring of drought potential occurrences in near real-time manner becomes a primary key element to anticipate the drought impact. This study was conducted to determine potential occurrences and the evolution of drought that occurred as a result of the 2015 El NiÃ±o event using the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite products. Composites analysis was performed using weekly Smoothed and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (or smoothed NDVI) (SMN), Smoothed Brightness Temperature Index (SMT), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), andÂ Vegetation Health Index (VHI). Â This data were obtained from The Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) - Global Vegetation Health Products (NOAA) website during 35-year period (1981-2015). Lowest potential drought occurrences (highest VHI and VCI value) caused by 2015 El NiÃ±o is showed by composite analysis result. Strong El NiÃ±o induced drought over the study area indicated by decreasing VHI value started at week 21st. Spatial characteristic differences in drought occurrences observed, especially on the west coast and east coast of South Sulawesi during strong El NiÃ±o. Weekly evolution of potential drought due to the El NiÃ±o impact in 2015 indicated by lower VHI values (VHI < 40) concentrated on the east coast of South Sulawesi, and then spread to another region along with the El Nino stage.Â Â

Comparative Analysis of Weather Radar Signatures of Puting Beliung in Indonesia Kiki; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Hidayat, Rahmat; Sukma Permana, Donaldi; Perdinan
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol. 26 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v26i2.1180

This study presents a comprehensive radar-based analysis of Puting Beliung (PB), Indonesia’s localized tornado phenomenon, using multiple weather radar–derived products. A comparative analysis of ten PB cases was conducted to identify consistent meteorological signatures and variations in tropical storm behavior, motivated by recent observations indicating an increasing frequency of PB events in Indonesia and the need for improved detection methods. Analysis using Rainbow software reveals consistently high reflectivity values ranging from 35 to 60 dBZ, with diverse echo patterns, among which the hook echo is the most dominant. Physical parameters show horizontal wind speeds of 10–30 knots at an altitude of 4 km, horizontal shear of 5–10 m s⁻¹ km⁻¹, and vertical shear of 1–10 m s⁻¹ km⁻¹, while spectral width analysis indicates moderate turbulence with values around 3 m s⁻¹. The Tornadic Vortex Detection (TVD) product identifies potential vortex signatures at six locations, with detected heights ranging from 1.2 to 3.1 km. This study represents the first comprehensive application of multiple radar products for PB characterization in Indonesia and identifies CMAX, HWIND, HSHEAR, and TVD as the most effective products for PB detection and monitoring. These findings provide essential baseline criteria for the development of radar-based early warning systems tailored to Indonesia’s tropical environment, with the potential to reduce the socioeconomic impacts of PB events through improved detection and prediction capabilities.

Peningkatan Kabut Asap dan Dampaknya terhadap Evapotranspirasi dan Produksi Primer Kelapa Sawit selama Kebakaran tahun 2015 : Diskusi Khusus tentang Radiasi Hambur Aulia, Felia Rizky; June, Tania; Koesmaryono, Yonny
Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) Vol 12 No 3 (2022): Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (JPSL)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian Lingkungan Hidup, IPB (PPLH-IPB) dan Program Studi Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan, IPB (PS. PSL, SPs. IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jpsl.12.3.511-521

Tahun 2015, beberapa wilayah di Indonesia mengalami kekeringan yang bertepatan dengan munculnya fenomena El Nino. Kekeringan di Indonesia diikuti oleh kebakaran hutan mengakibatkan perkebunan kelapa sawit di Jambi tertutup oleh kabut asap. Fenomena kebakaran hutan berdampak besar pada pelemahan radiasi matahari yang masuk ke permukaan bumi akibat tertutupnya atmosfer oleh kabut asap yang cukup tebal sehingga berpengaruh terhadap produksi primer dan evapotranspirasi kelapa sawit. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis intensitas kabut asap berdasarkan radiasi hambur dan menganalisis hubungan serta pola GPP dan evapotranspirasi terhadap radiasi hambur pada saat terjadi kabut asap di tahun 2015. Konsentrasi PM10 sebagai representase aerosol di atmosfer terhadap transmisivitas atmosfer berkorelasi negatif dengan r = -0,8 dan p-value = 0,0016. Tingginya radiasi hambur berbanding lurus dengan kondisi atmosfer yang tertutup oleh kabut asap. Saat tutupan kabut asap di atmosfer sedang mencapai puncaknya di bulan Oktober 2015, sebagian besar radiasi matahari yang masuk adalah radiasi hambur. Fraksi difus dengan GPP dan evapotranspirasi juga berkorelasi negatif atau berbanding terbalik. Keduanya memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan p-value < 0,05 dan r = -0,93 untuk GPP dan r = -0,88 untuk evapotranspirasi. Berdasarkan besarnya koefisien korelasi, radiasi difus dengan GPP memiliki hubungan yang lebih erat dibandingkan dengan evapotranspirasi.

Challenges in radar-based non-supercell tornado detection using machine learning approaches Kiki Kiki; Yonny Koesmaryono; Rahmat Hidayat; Donaldi Sukma Permana; Perdinan Perdinan; Abdullah Ali
TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Vol 24, No 1: February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/telkomnika.v24i1.27451

Tornado detection in Indonesia remains challenging as most areas are monitored by single-polarization weather radar, while dual-polarization systems offer superior detection capabilities. This study presents a novel approach by applying random forest (RF) and XGBoost machine learning algorithms to detect tornadoes using single-polarization radar data, addressing a critical gap in tropical tornado monitoring where dual-pol infrastructure is limited. Four tornado cases in Surabaya during 2024 were analyzed. Radar features including reflectivity, radial velocity, vorticity, and angular momentum were extracted through a multi-elevation sliding window technique. Spatial labels were assigned based on reports from the Indonesian National Meteorological Services (BMKG) with a 7.5 km radius from the event center. The dataset was balanced using synthetic minority over sampling technique (SMOTE). Evaluation was performed using the leave one-case-out (LOCO) scheme. Within-case evaluation showed strong performance with area under the curve (AUC) >0.94 for both models. XGBoost achieved higher probability of detection (POD 0.67-0.72) but with elevated false alarm rates (FAR up to 70%). RF demonstrated more balanced performance (POD 0.61-0.65, FAR 0.34-0.35). LOCO evaluation revealed significant POD reduction and FAR increase when tested on new cases. This indicates generalization challenges due to variability in tornado characteristics. This study demonstrates the potential of machine learning for tropical tornado early detection using readily available single-polarization radar.

Mapping research trends on tropical cyclone–induced flood susceptibility: a bibliometric and systematic review method Soenardi Soenardi; Bambang Dwi Dasanto; Yonny Koesmaryono; I Putu Santikayasa; Giarno Giarno
TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Vol 24, No 4: August 2026
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/telkomnika.v24i4.27614

Climate change has intensified tropical cyclones (TC), increasing extreme rainfall and flood hazards in many regions. Flood susceptibility (FS) mapping is therefore essential for understanding flood risk. This study analyzes global research trends on TC-induced FS by integrating bibliometric analysis and a preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA)-based systematic literature review (SLR) using Google Scholar (GS) publications from 2014 to 2024. A total of 993 journal articles were analyzed, yielding an h-index of 101 and a g-index of 168, indicating strong and growing research interest. The results reveal an increasing application of machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), remote sensing (RS), and geographic information systems (GIS) for FS mapping. Several gaps remain, including limited use of high-resolution data, underrepresentation of data-scarce and equatorial regions, restricted integration of hybrid models, and a lack of long-term assessments considering climate change and socio-economic factors. The model’s performance is also highly dependent on data quality and regional characteristics, limiting its generalizability across different conditions. The main contribution of this study is the knowledge mapping and synthesis of TC-induced FS research, providing a structured foundation for future studies and supporting evidence-based flood risk management and climate adaptation.

Co-Authors . Haruna . RINDITA A. Yanto Abdul Syakur Abdullah Ali Adeleyda M. W Lumingkewasa Adi Mulsandi Agus Suryanto Ahmad Faqih Aji Hamim Wigena Aji Irsyam N. Sukarta Akhmad Faqih Akhmad Faqih Alexander Knohl Ali, Ashehad Aswen Amsari Mudzakir Setiawan Amsari Mudzakir Setiawan Anung Wahyudi Aprilia, Lupita Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan Arifianto, Fendy Aris Pramudia Aris Pramudia Ashehad Ashween Ali Asmari Amasih Aulia, Felia Rizky Aziz, Sandra A B.F. Simatupang Bambang Dwi Dasanto Bambang Guritno Budi Kartiwa Budi Kartiwa Christian Stiegler Daijiro Ito Didiek H. Goenadi Didiek Hadjar Goenadi Didiek Hadjar Goenadi Didy Sopandie Dodo Gunawan Dodo Gunawan Donaldi Sukma Permana Donaldi Sukma Permana Dulbari, Dulbari Dwi Guntoro E. Aldrian Edi Santosa Edvin Aldrian Eko Sulistyono Eleonora Runtunuwu Eleonora Runtunuwu Eliyani Eliyani Erwin Eka Syahputra Makmur F Ismaini F. Djufri F. Fibrianty Fadjry Djufri Fadjry Djufri Ferdinan Yulianda Giarno Giarno Gusti Rusmayadi H.M.H Bintoro Djoefrie Hadi Susilo Arifin Hana F.T. Handoko Handoko Hanedi Darmasetiawan Hanedi Darmasetiawan Hari Wijayanto Haruna Haruo Suzuki Herdhata Agusta Hidayat Pawitan Hidayat Pawitan Hideki Sukimoto I Handoko I Handoko I Wayan Astika Impron Impron Irianto G. Irsal Las Irsal Las Justika Baharsjah Kiki Kiki Kiki Kiki, Kiki Knohl, Alexander Laode Sabaruddin Lisdar Idwan Sudirman Lukman H. Sibuea Lumingkewasa, Adeleyda M. W Ma'rufah, Ummu Magfira Syarifuddin Mamenun Mamenun Marjuki Marjuki Mufika Haryu Suci Fitriana Mulyono R. Prabowo Mulyono R. Prabowo Munif Ghulamahdi Nofi Yendri Sudiar P. Perdinan Rahmat Hidayat Rahmat Hidayat Resti Salmayenti Rini Hidayati Rizaldi Boer Rokhmin Dahuri S. B. Rushayati Sandra A Aziz Santikayasa, I Putu Santikayasa, I Putu Setiapermas M.N. Siti Nadia Nurul Azizah Sjafrida Manuwoto Soenardi Soenardi Sofyan Zaman Sofyan, Devied Apriyanto Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena Sukma Permana, Donaldi Sulistyono, dan Eko Suman Sangadji Sutoro Sutoro Swastiko Priyambodo, Swastiko Syahrizal Koem Syarifuddin Karama Tania June Taufan Hidayat Taufan Hidayat Tetsuya Haseba Tetsuya Haseba Tugiyo Aminoto Ummu Ma'rufah Ummu Ma'rufah Upik Kesumawati Hadi Wahyujaya Wahyujaya Wido Hanggoro Yogi Sugito Yon Sugiarto Yopie Moelyohadi Yunus Subagyo Swarinoto Yusmin . Yusmin . Yustika S. Baharsyah Z. Noor

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