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PENGARUH TIME LAG SML SEBAGAI PREDIKTOR DALAM MODEL SISTEM PREDIKSI ENSEMBLE PEMBOBOT PRAKIRAAN HUJAN BULANAN DI KABUPATEN INDRAMAYU Yunus Subagyo Swarinoto; Yonny Koesmaryono; Edvin Aldrian; Aji Hamim Wigena
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol 14, No 1 (2013)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v14i1.144

Abstract

 Data Suhu Muka Laut (SML) dari Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) dengan resolusi 1° diregresikan dengan prediksi  hujan bulanan di wilayah Kabupaten Indramayu Propinsi Jawa Barat. Proses ini dimaksudkan untuk memperbaiki luaran model Sistem Prediksi Ensemble dengan nilai pembobot (SPEP) dalam melakukan prediksi unsur iklim  hujan bulanan di wilayah Kabupaten Indramayu dengan memasukkan dinamika fluktuasi SML di sekitar daerah penelitian. Teknik yang digunakan dalam mengkaitkan data SML-JMA dengan nilai prediksi  hujan bulanan dimaksud adalah teknik Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR). Model yang diaplikasikan selanjutnya disebut sebagai SPEP-PLSR. Data SML-JMA diolah dengan memperhatikan time lag 1 dan 2 bulan sebelumnya karena efek SML terhadap atmosfer tidak berlangsung secara cepat. Luaran model SPEP-PLSR menunjukkan  hasil yang lebih baik secara signifikan terhadap luaran model SPEP untuk time lag 2 bulan. Kondisi ini ditunjukkan oleh nilai yang lebih baik untuk koefisien korelasi Pearson (r) minimum, nilai r rerata, nilai Root Mean Square Erros (RMSE) maksimum, dan nilai RMSE rerata daripada luaran yang dihasilkan oleh SPEP.  The Sea Surface Temperature of Japan Meteorological Agency (SML-JMA) with 1° resolution had been regressed with monthly rainfall  prediction in Indramayu District of West Java Province. This method was used to improve the quality of the Ensemble Prediction System using Weighting Factor (SPEP) model output to provide the monthly rainfall  prediction by inserting the fluctuation of Sea Surface Temperature dynamics. Processing technique done between SML-JMA and monthly rainfall  prediction was Partial Least Square Regression method. This model was then called as SPEP-PLSR. Those SML-JMA data were computed based on preceded time lag of 1 and 2 months because the efect of SML did not occur directly into the atmosphere. Results of SPEP-PLSR model outputs showed significantly better in quality compared to the SPEP model outputs itself. The SPEP-PLSR model outputs showed spatially better in minimum Pearson correlation coeficient (r), r average, maximum RMSE, and RMSE average compared to the SPEP model outputs. 
MODEL PREDIKSI AWAL MUSIM HUJAN DI SENTRA PADI PANTURA JABAR DENGAN PREDIKTOR REGIONAL DAN GLOBAL Erwin Eka Syahputra Makmur; Yonny Koesmaryono; Edvin Aldrian; Aji Hamim Wigena
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol 14, No 3 (2013)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v14i3.164

Abstract

Prediksi awal musim hujan merupakan suatu hal penting yang menunjang beberapa sektor di antaranya di sektor pertanian. Prediksi awal musim dipergunakan sebagai pertimbangan untuk menentukan kegiatan penanam padi khususnya penentuan awal musim tanam. Untuk menentukan awal musim hujan biasanya ditandai dengan perubahan sirkulasi atmosfer yang cukup signifikan misalnya perubahan arah angin, tekanan udara permukaan dan daerah liputan awan. Untuk penelitian ini dipergunakan 17 prediktor yang telah dipilih berdasarkan tes korelasi spasial antara prediktor dan awal musim. Penelitian ini difokuskan di daerah Pantura Jawa Barat yang terdiri dari Karawang, Subang, Indramayu dan Cirebon yang merupakan daerah sentra pangan khususnya beras. Wilayah Pantura memasok sekitar 30% kebutuhan beras untuk Jawa Barat. Dari 17 prediktor yang terpilih kemudian dimasukkan ke dalam model regresi dengan melakukan semua kemungkinan kombinasi sehingga didapatkan model yang terbaik dengan menggunakan indikator mean square error terkecil. Untuk semua model yang disimulasikan diperlihatkan bahwa hampir semua model menghasilkan hasil yang baik baik baik pada kondis tahun normal maupun pada saat terjdinya El Nino dan La Nina.The prediction of the onset of the rainy season is very important for many sectors especially for the agricultural sector to make the best planning for planting calendar to get optimum paddy yield. Monsoon onset is characterized by the change of significant atmospheric circulation such as changes in wind direction, intertropical convergence zone location, etc. This research used 17 predictors which have been selected using spatial correlation test. Pantura Jawa Barat is the main rice production center in West Java province and contributes about 35% of the total production of West Java Province. The selected predictors in the next process become indicators for the variability of rainy season onset and becoming predictors for climate statistical model. Through the many combinations, 4 models are resulted and 1 ensemble model. These models produce a better performance to predict the onset of the rainy season over the northern coastal area of West Java Province even for some extreme years during El Nino or La Nina events.
KARAKTERISTIK SPASIAL DAN TEMPORAL HOTSPOT DI PULAU SUMATERA Mulyono R. Prabowo; Yonny Koesmaryono; Akhmad Faqih; Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol. 21 No. 1 (2020)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v21i1.674

Abstract

Kebakaran hutan di Indonesia telah menjadi masalah global yang terjadi setiap tahun, terutama di Pulau Sumatra. Identifikasi kebakaran hutan dan lahan dalam penelitian ini didasarkan pada jumlah dan distribusi hotspot, berdasarkan data citra satelit dari Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) pada 2009-2018. Investigasi pada kondisi meteorologi juga didasarkan pada faktor-faktor global dari data Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Dipole Mode Index (DMI) dan berdasarkan pada indeks kekeringan dari data Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Metode yang digunakan adalah metode analisis spasial dan temporal. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui karakteristik pola distribusi hotspot di Pulau Sumatra, baik secara spasial dan temporal. Ada perbedaan karakteristik spasial dan temporal dari distribusi hotspot di pulau Sumatra, yang didasarkan pada karakteristik topografi, fase ENSO, serta periode musim hujan dan kemarau. Hujan orografis yang terjadi akibat topografi gunung di Aceh dan pantai barat Sumatra mengakibatkan berkurangnya titik api di daerah tersebut. Sementara itu, El Nino meningkatkan jumlah hotspot, sedangkan La Nina mengurangi jumlah hotspot. Dibandingkan dengan IOD, ENSO lebih berpengaruh pada terjadinya peristiwa hotspot di pulau Sumatra. Perbedaan periode musim kemarau di Sumatera utara, tengah, dan selatan juga memberikan perbedaan waktu terjadinya hotspot maksimum di Sumatera. Pola distribusi hotspot di Sumatera utara dan tengah memuncak pada bulan Februari dan Juni, sedangkan di selatan pada bulan September. Konsentrasi titik api yang tinggi (> 50 kejadian perbulan) pada umumnya terjadi di lahan gambut, yang umumnya ditemukan di Sumatra timur (Sumatera Utara, Riau, dan provinsi Sumatra Selatan). Forest fires in Indonesia have become a global problem that occurs every year, especially on the island of Sumatra. The identification of forest and land fires in this study is based on the number and distribution of hotspots, based on satellite image data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2009-2018. Investigations on meteorological conditions are also based on global factors from Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) data, Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and based on the drought index from the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) data. The method used is a spatial and temporal analysis method. The purpose of this study was to determine the characteristics of hotspot distribution patterns on the island of Sumatra, both spatially and temporally. There are differences in the spatial and temporal characteristics of the hotspot distribution on the island of Sumatra, which is based on the characteristics of the topography, ENSO phase, as well as the wet and dry season periods. Orographic rain that occurred due to mountain topography in Aceh and the west coast of Sumatra resulted in reduced hotspots in the area. Meanwhile, El Nino increased the number of hotspots, while La Nina reduced the number of hotspots. Compared to IOD, ENSO is more influential on the occurrence of hotspot events on the island of Sumatra. The difference in the dry season period in northern, central and southern Sumatra also gives a difference in the time of the occurrence of maximum hotspots in Sumatra. The pattern of hotspot distribution in northern and central Sumatra peaked in February and June, while in the south in September. High hotspots (> 50 monthly events) with high concentrations occur on peatlands, which are commonly found in eastern Sumatra (province of North Sumatra, Riau, and South Sumatra).
A Comparison of the Performance of the Weighted Ensembles Means in CORDEX-SEA Precipitation Simulations Aminoto, Tugiyo; Faqih, Akhmad; Perdinan; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Dwi Dasanto, Bambang
Agromet Vol. 38 No. 1 (2024): JUNE 2024
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.38.1.19-35

Abstract

Numerous studies stated that the performance of ensemble mean derived from multiple climate models generally surpassed the individual member model, and applying weighting factors potentially increase the ensemble mean of performance. This study aims to assess the performance of unweighted and weighted ensemble means of 9-modelled precipitation datasets in the CORDEX-SEA multi-model simulations for 1981-2005. The 9 datasets included: CNRM_a, ECE_b, GFDL_b, IPSL_b, HadGEM2_a, HadGEM2_c, HadGEM2_d, MPI_c, and NorESM1_d. The weighting factors were derived from the models' skill scores measured using five statistical-based metrics, namely Taylor, Pierce (SS), Tian skill score (Tian), Climate prediction index (CPI), and Performance and Independence (PI). The ERA5 and GPCP precipitation datasets were used as the references for comparison. Then, reliable metrics will be used to determine the weighting factor. The results found that three metrics namely Taylor, SS, and Tian were more reliable than the other two metrics (CPI and PI). Spatially, the weighted ensemble mean based on a random method was superior to other ensemble mean methods and individual models. We found that the CNRM_a and GFDL_b models were spatially performed best. In contrast, most the ensemble means was temporally less performed compared to the individual model. Our findings suggested that by removal of low performance models will significantly influence on the overall ensemble model performance. Further, the research may provide valuable considerations of climate models selection for climate projection assessments, especially in the Southeast Asia region.
Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim Koem, Syahrizal; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Impron, Impron
Jurnal Entomologi Indonesia Vol 11 No 1 (2014): April
Publisher : Perhimpunan Entomologi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5994/jei.11.1.1

Abstract

Rice stem borer abundance are largely influenced by climate. This research aims to (i) develop a population dynamic model of yellow stem borer (YSB) and (ii) to assess the model's ability to predict abundance and population peak of YSB under climate change scenario SRES A1FI and B1. Modeling the YSB requires two major components: climate parameter and lower developmental threshold temperatures (To) to describe life cycle of YSB from the egg, larva, pupa, and adult stages. The research utilized DYMEX software to describe development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one to the next life stages, fecundity and reproduction of YSB. The coefficient of determination (R2) of calibration models between predictions and observations showed a strong positive correlation of 0.65. Model validation could well predict the peak population, with R2 = 0.42. The simulations showed that the trend of population peak occur at high rainfall i.e. in March to April, July to September, and November to December. The model predicted YSB population in the Sukamandi reaches 3 generations per year, while in Kuningan 2 generations per year. Simulation models under climate change scenarios SRES A1FI and B1 showed differences in the sensitivities. Trend of YSB population is increasing in the regions Kuningan and decreasing in region Sukamandi. Under changing climate, environment conditions in Kuningan become more suitable for the proliferation of YSB, allowing an increase in the number of generations per year.
Potential Attack of Rice Field Rat (Rattus argentiventer) on Rice Crops Based on Climate Factors in Karawang Regency, West Java, Indonesia Aprilia, Lupita; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Priyambodo, Swastiko
Jurnal Proteksi Tanaman Vol 8 No 2 (2024): December 2024
Publisher : Universitas Andalas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jpt.8.2.63-77.2024

Abstract

The production of rice is closely related to the presence of pests, one of which is the rice field rat (Rattus argentiventer). The development of pests that attack plants is influenced by the dynamics of climate factors, both directly and indirectly. The climate in Karawang Regency is highly suitable for the growth of R. argentiventer. In the rice - rice - intercrop cropping pattern, climate factors have strong influence on the infestation of rice field rats during the intercrop season. Meanwhile, climate factors have low influence during the rice monocrop season. Based on CLIMEX output, the altitude difference in Karawang Regency does not have a significant effect on the environment suitability for the growth and development of rice field rats, allowing them to live in any rice field in Karawang Regency. Based on climate scenarios, the suitability of the climate in Karawang Regency for the potential growth and development of rice field rats is projected to decrease in the 2070s. Increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall cause the rice field rats to experience dry stress.
Canopy Microclimate Modification with Reflective Mulches Under Oil Palm and Its Role to Soybean Growth Hidayat, Taufan; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Impron, Impron; Ghulamahdi, Munif
Agromet Vol. 34 No. 1 (2020): JUNE 2020
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1113.988 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.34.1.1-10

Abstract

Land utilization under oil palm plantation is constrained by the condition of low light intensities. Modification of the microclimate through the use of reflective mulch, as a reflector, will increase its ability to reflect the land surface radiation under the tree stand. This modification may suitable for intercropping system between soybean and oil palm. The study aimed to determine the effect of microclimate modification, using reflective mulch, under the stand of oil palm, and to evaluate its effect on soybean productivity. The research was conducted at PTPN-VIII Cimarga Banten using a nested random design with two factors and three replications each. The first factor is the oil palm age, which consists of: (i) control (open land), (ii) 4 years, (iii) 5 years, and (iv) 8 years age of oil palm. The second factor is the reflective mulch, as a solar radiation reflector, which consists of three levels: (i) without mulch (control), (ii) inorganic reflective mulch/silver black plastic mulch, and (iii) organic reflective mulch/dried oil palm leaves. The application of inorganic and organic reflective mulch increased the distribution of reflected land surface radiation (59%-157%), reduced the soil temperature fluctuation (0.30C-1.20C), and maintained soil water content (45.2%-45.8%). An increased of plant growth rates (56%-86%), relative growth rates (16%-21%), and seed weight production per plant (74.8%-86.2%) also reported, as well as the reduction of the etiolation ratio (9.6%-12.5%). The use of organic and inorganic reflective mulches can improve the microclimate and increase the production of soybean under intercopping system with oil palm.
Puting beliung: Understanding Indonesia's small-scale tornadoes and the path forwardA literature review Kiki, Kiki; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Hidayat, Rahmat; Permana, Donaldi Sukma; Perdinan, Perdinan
International Journal of Disaster Management Vol 8, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : TDMRC, Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24815/ijdm.v8i1.42056

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Puting beliung (PB), a tornado-like event in Indonesia, poses significant threats to communities and infrastructure, yet research on their characteristics and impacts remains limited. This study systematically reviews the progress of PB research in Indonesia through an analysis of 58 relevant studies, focusing on geographical distribution, characteristics, impacts, and mitigation efforts. Using Google Scholar as the primary search engine for scientific journal retrieval and implementing the PRISMA methodology for systematic literature review, this study ensures a comprehensive and structured analysis of existing research. Findings indicate that PB events predominantly occur in Java, with notably fewer documented cases in eastern Indonesia. These events are influenced by atmospheric conditions and spatiotemporal patterns, with psychological and structural impacts on affected communities. Existing mitigation strategies, including early warning systems, show promise but face challenges in public engagement and coordination, particularly in post-disaster recovery phases. The review highlights the need for integrating advanced technologies such as remote sensing and machine learning to improve prediction accuracy and develop a comprehensive PB event database. By synthesizing existing research, this study identifies and underscores the necessity for more extensive investigations, particularly under-research regions. Future research should prioritize improving forecasting models, expanding the geographical scope of studies, and enhancing disaster management strategies to minimize PB-related risks. Strengthening public awareness and response mechanisms is crucial to reducing vulnerabilities and improving resilience.
Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Trend of Puting Beliung Across the Indonesian Archipelago Kiki, Kiki; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Hidayat, Rahmat; Perdinan, Perdinan; Permana, Donaldi Sukma
Indonesian Journal of Geography Vol 57, No 2 (2025): Indonesian Journal of Geography
Publisher : Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/ijg.103901

Abstract

Puting beliung (PB), or small-scale tornado, is a significant and under-researched extreme weather phenomenon in Indonesia, often causing severe damage to infrastructure and posing risks to public safety despite their brief localized nature. Therefore, this research aimed to examine spatial and temporal patterns and trends of PB events across Indonesia from 2011 to 2024, applying statistical analysis, geospatial mapping, and the Mann-Kendall trend test to a database of 2,434 PB events. The results showed that PB events primarily cluster in western and central regions, specifically on Java Island, and the highest frequencies were observed in East Java, West Java, and Central Java. These events typically occur in low-lying zones (0–500 meters above sea level), affecting agricultural and residential land in flat terrain. Temporally, most PB arises in the afternoon (1:00–3:00 pm local time), with peak frequencies in January, March, and November, coinciding with Indonesian monsoonal and transitional seasons. A trend analysis shows a statistically significant nationwide yearly increase of approximately 12 PB events, with 8 provinces exhibiting notable upward patterns. When compared to other PB-prone nations, Indonesia records a higher annual PB frequency than Japan, Australia, and Bangladesh, but remains well below the United States. The novelty of this research lies in its long-term, nationwide dataset and thorough spatiotemporal assessment, providing the first comprehensive examination of PB trends at national and provincial scales in Indonesia. These results provide crucial insights for disaster risk mapping, mitigation strategies, and early warning systems.
Assessing the Influence of Climate Services and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Smallholder Agriculture: A Systematic Literature Review Marjuki, Marjuki; Koesmaryono, Yonny; Santikayasa, I Putu; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena
Agromet Vol. 39 No. 2 (2025): DECEMBER 2025
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.39.2.75-85

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Climate services and climate change adaptation practices are increasingly recognized as essential for supporting smallholder farmers. Despite numerous studies on climate impacts and adaptation strategies, limited systematic evidence exists on how climate services and adaptation interventions influence farming practices across regions. This study addresses the gap through a systematic literature review of Scopus-indexed publications over the past decade. Using the PRISMA approach, 1981 articles were screened, with 31 meeting the eligibility criteria. Of these, 23 focused on adaptation interventions and 8 on climate services. Geographically, 30 studies were concentrated in tropical regions Africa (n =16) and in Asia (n=14), while one study was outside the tropics. Findings show that climate information strongly supports the adoption of adaptation strategies (>60%), especially in technological interventions such as Climate-Smart Agriculture, ecosystem management, irrigation, and climate risk reduction. In terms of service delivery, basic climate service provision demonstrated greater effectiveness (80%) compared to advisory-based agricultural services (40%). Socio-demographic factors, particularly education and age, consistently influenced farmers’ decision-making in adopting both climate services and adaptation practices. Overall, this review highlights the need for more integrated approaches that explicitly connect climate services with adaptation interventions. Strengthening these linkages is especially critical in tropical regions, where smallholder farmers remain highly vulnerable to climate variability and long-term climate change risks.
Co-Authors . Haruna . RINDITA A. Yanto Abdul Syakur Adeleyda M. W Lumingkewasa Adi Mulsandi Agus Suryanto Ahmad Faqih Aji Hamim Wigena Aji Irsyam N. Sukarta Akhmad Faqih Akhmad Faqih Alexander Knohl Ali, Ashehad Aswen Amsari Mudzakir Setiawan Amsari Mudzakir Setiawan Anung Wahyudi Aprilia, Lupita Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan Aris Pramudia Aris Pramudia Ashehad Ashween Ali Asmari Amasih Aulia, Felia Rizky Aziz, Sandra A B.F. Simatupang Bambang Dwi Dasanto Bambang Guritno Budi Kartiwa Budi Kartiwa Christian Stiegler Daijiro Ito Didiek H. Goenadi Didiek Hadjar Goenadi Didiek Hadjar Goenadi Didy Sopandie Dodo Gunawan Dodo Gunawan Donaldi Sukma Permana Dulbari, Dulbari Dwi Guntoro E. Aldrian E. Eliyani Edi Santosa Edvin Aldrian Eko Sulistyono Eleonora Runtunuwu Eleonora Runtunuwu Erwin Eka Syahputra Makmur F Ismaini F. Djufri F. Fibrianty Fadjry Djufri Fadjry Djufri Fendy Arifianto Ferdinan Yulianda Gusti Rusmayadi H.M.H Bintoro Djoefrie Hadi Susilo Arifin Hana F.T. Handoko Handoko Hanedi Darmasetiawan Hanedi Darmasetiawan Hari Wijayanto Haruna Haruo Suzuki Herdhata Agusta Hidayat Pawitan Hidayat Pawitan Hideki Sukimoto I Handoko I Handoko I Wayan Astika Impron Impron Irianto G. Irsal Las Irsal Las Justika Baharsjah Kiki Kiki, Kiki Knohl, Alexander Laode Sabaruddin Lisdar Idwan Sudirman Lukman H. Sibuea Lumingkewasa, Adeleyda M. W Ma'rufah, Ummu Magfira Syarifuddin Mamenun Mamenun Marjuki Marjuki Mufika Haryu Suci Fitriana Mulyono R. Prabowo Mulyono R. Prabowo Munif Ghulamahdi Nofi Yendri Sudiar P. Perdinan Rahmat Hidayat Resti Salmayenti Rini Hidayati Rizaldi Boer Rokhmin Dahuri S. B. Rushayati Sandra A Aziz Santikayasa, I Putu Setiapermas M.N. Siti Nadia Nurul Azizah Sjafrida Manuwoto Sofyan Zaman Sofyan, Devied Apriyanto Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena Sukma Permana, Donaldi Sulistyono, dan Eko Suman Sangadji Sutoro Sutoro Swastiko Priyambodo, Swastiko Syahrizal Koem Syarifuddin Karama Tania June Taufan Hidayat Taufan Hidayat Tetsuya Haseba Tetsuya Haseba Tugiyo Aminoto Ummu Ma'rufah Ummu Ma'rufah Upik Kesumawati Hadi Wahyujaya Wahyujaya Wido Hanggoro Yogi Sugito Yon Sugiarto Yopie Moelyohadi Yunus Subagyo Swarinoto Yusmin . Yusmin . Yustika S. Baharsyah Z. Noor