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All Journal Media Statistika Statistika CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Matematika: MANTIK BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (JMP) Jurnal E-Komtek Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika (Statmat) Tematik : Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Komunikasi REKA ELKOMIKA: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal Formosa Journal of Science and Technology (FJST) Indonesian Journal of Contemporary Multidisciplinary Research Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research Indonesian Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR) Euclid Asian Journal of Applied Education BEGIBUNG: Jurnal Penelitian Multidisiplin MARAS : Jurnal Penelitian Multidisplin Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Future Academia : The Journal of Multidisciplinary Research on Scientific and Advanced PRIMER: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin
Gumgum Darmawan
Departemen Statistika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran
Religion Arts Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Media Statistika

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FORECASTING COVID-19 IN INDONESIA WITH VARIOUS TIME SERIES MODELS Gumgum Darmawan; Dedi Rosadi; Budi Nurani Ruchjana; Resa Septiani Pontoh; Asrirawan Asrirawan; Wirawan Setialaksana
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 15, No 1 (2022): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.15.1.83-93

Abstract

In this study, Covid-19 modeling in Indonesia is carried out using a time series model. The time series model used is the time series model for discrete data. These models consist of Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN), Error, Trend, and Seasonal (ETS), Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Fuzzy Time Series (FTS), Generalized Autoregression Moving Average (GARMA), and Bayesian Time Series. Based on the results of forecast accuracy calculation using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) as model evaluation for confirmed data, the most accurate case models is the bayesian model of 0.04%, while all recovered cases yield MAPE 0.05%, except for FTS = 0.06%. For data for death cases SSA and Bayesian Models, the best with MAPE is 0.07%.
Co-Authors Achmad Bachrudin Akbar, Muhammad Faizal Alamanda Putri, Fariza Aldi Anugerah Sitepu Alfarisi, Widi Wildani Alifia, Wanda Aliya Auliyazhafira, Shabira Amanah Dwiadi, Qurnia Angga Pratama Anindya Apriliyanti Pravitasari Apriliana, Linda Aribah, Rana Asrirawan Aurilia Pratiwi, Dhanti Azka Larissa Rahayu Bertho Tantular Budhi Handoko Budi Nurani Ruchjana Budianti, Laila Clarissa Clorinda, Chrysentia Dedi Rosadi Defi Yusti Faidah Deltha Airuzsh Lubis Dina Prariesa Eko Yulian eko yulian, eko Ery Sadewo, Ery Fajar Indrayatna Farhan Bagus Prakoso Ferdian Agustiana Fitriani Azuri, Dila Hadi, Juandi Haura, Zhafira Hirlan Khaeri I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya Indriani , Ayu Intan Nurma Yulita Ismatilah, Nuzila Janatin, Janatin Karin, Nabila Khaeri, Hirlan Kiki Amelia, Kiki Kusuma Putri, Aisha Muhamad Budiman Johra Muhammad Faizal Akbar Mulya Nurmansyah Ardisasmita Mulya, Callista Audrey Najwa, Sandrina Neneng Sunengsih Neneng Sunengsih Novianti Indah Putri Nurhapilah, Hani Nurul Gusriani Pian Widianingsih Puteri, Dian Islamiaty Putri Syallya, Najma Rafifah Putri, Salma Azzahra Rafidah, Raihanah Rahman Al Madan, Aulia Resa Septiani Pontoh Restu Arisanti Rhafi Ahdian, Muhammad Rina Sri Kalsum Siregar Rini Luciani Rahayu Rizal Amegia Saputra Ruchjana, Budi N Ruslan Ruslan Samaria Nauli, Theresia Sangrila, Ayu Sastradipraja, C K Setialaksana, Wirawan - Sitepu, Aldi Anugerah Sitohang, Yosep Oktavianus Sri Sutjiningtyas Sri Winarni Sri Yuliana Sudartianto, Sudartianto Talakua, Andrew Hosea Tri Wulanda Fitri Triyani Hendrawati Utami, Yosi Febria Widiantoro, Carissa Egytia Widodo, Valeno Glenedias Wildani Alfarisi, Widi Yasyfi Avicenna, Muhammad Yeny Krista Franty Yogo Aryo Jatmiko Yosep Oktavianus Sitohang Yunizar, Mahdayani Putri Yusep Suparman Yuyun Hidayat Zen Munawar Zulhanif Zulhanif