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All Journal SOROT: Jurnal Ilmu-ilmu Sosial JKBM (JURNAL KONSEP BISNIS DAN MANAJEMEN) Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING) Owner : Riset dan Jurnal Akuntansi Jesya (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Ekonomi Syariah) Jurnal Ilmiah Edunomika (JIE) International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR) EKONOMI, KEUANGAN, INVESTASI DAN SYARIAH (EKUITAS) Jurnal Samudra Ekonomika Budapest International Research and Critics in Linguistics and Education Journal (Birle Journal) International Journal of Educational Review, Law And Social Sciences (IJERLAS) Multidiciplinary Output Research for Actual and International Issue (Morfai Journal) Asian Journal of Innovative Research in Social Science Science and Education Journal Seminar Nasional Teknologi dan Multidisiplin Ilmu Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Indonesia
M Syafii
Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, Universitas Sumatera Utara
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Social Sciences Other

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ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KETIMPANGAN PENDAPATAN DI PULAU SUMATERA TAHUN 2015 - 2024 Gabriel Amadeus Sitompul; M. Syafii; Arif Rahman
JURNAL ILMIAH EDUNOMIKA Vol. 10 No. 2 (2026): EDUNOMIKA
Publisher : ITB AAS Indonesia Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29040/jie.v10i2.20329

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting income inequality in Sumatra in the short and long term for the period 2015-2024. The variables studied include HDI, TPT, inflation, PMDN, PMA, and economic growth as independent variables. Income inequality is used as the dependent variable. The research data consists of panel data comprising cross-sectional data from 10 provinces on the island of Sumatra and time-series data for the period 2015–2024. Since the cointegration test revealed a cointegration relationship among the variables, the research model employed is the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (Panel VECM). This study was conducted using the E-Views data analysis software. Research findings on income inequality on the island of Sumatra indicate that in the short term, the Human Development Index (HDI) has a positive and significant effect, the Unemployment Rate (UR) has a negative and significant effect, inflation has a positive but insignificant effect, Domestic Investment (PMDN) has a negative but insignificant effect, Foreign Direct Investment (PMA) has a negative but insignificant effect, and economic growth has a positive but insignificant effect. In the long term, the HDI has a negative but insignificant effect; the TPT has a positive but insignificant effect; inflation has a positive and significant effect; domestic investment (PMDN) has a negative and significant effect; foreign investment (PMA) has a positive and significant effect; and economic growth has a negative and significant effect.
ANALISIS FAKTOR - FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) DI TIGA NEGARA KAWASAN ASEAN Rizky Azlina Siregar; Paidi Hidayat. M; M. Syafii
Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING) Vol. 9 No. 3 (2026): Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING)
Publisher : Institut Penelitian Matematika, Komputer, Keperawatan, Pendidikan dan Ekonomi (IPM2KPE)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31539/snk5vq44

Abstract

Investasi Asing Langsung atau Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) merupakan instrumen penting bagi percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di kawasan Asia Tenggara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi aliran masuk FDI di 9 negara anggota ASEAN dalam periode tahun 2000–2024. Variabel independen yang diuji meliputi Nilai Tukar (exchange rate), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Kualitas Regulasi (regulatory quality), Keterbukaan Perdagangan (trade openness), dan Inflasi. Metode analisis data menggunakan regresi data panel dengan pendekatan terbaik yaitu Fixed Effect Model (FEM) serta analisis spasial per negara. Hasil pengujian regional menunjukkan bahwa Gross Domestic Product (GDP) merupakan satu-satunya variabel makroekonomi yang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap FDI, yang mendukung penuh teori market-seeking investment di kawasan ASEAN. Sebaliknya, pada model gabungan regional, variabel nilai tukar, inflasi, kualitas regulasi, dan keterbukaan perdagangan terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Meskipun demikian, hasil analisis spasial menunjukkan adanya respons investor yang beragam di tingkat domestik. Variabel kualitas regulasi dan keterbukaan perdagangan terbukti berpengaruh positif dan signifikan hanya pada kelompok negara berkembang seperti Kamboja dan Laos, sementara pada negara manufaktur utama seperti Vietnam dan Thailand, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terlalu cepat dan peningkatan inflasi justru direspons secara negatif oleh investor akibat adanya kekhawatiran terhadap kenaikan biaya faktor produksi lokal. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa menjaga keberlanjutan pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik serta melakukan penguatan kualitas birokrasi yang spesifik di tiap negara merupakan kunci utama dalam mempertahankan daya saing investasi di kawasan ASEAN. Kata Kunci : Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), GDP, Kualitas Regulasi, Keterbukaan  Perdagangan, ASEAN.
THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DEVELOPING G20 COUNTRIES M. Wahyu Shihab; Sirojuzilam; M. Syafii
Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue (MORFAI) Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue
Publisher : RADJA PUBLIKA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18639801

Abstract

This study investigates the long-run and short-run effects of macroeconomic variables—inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, foreign direct investment (FDI), and government expenditure—on economic growth using annual panel data from nine developing G20 economies over the period 2000–2023. The Panel ARDL model with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is applied to capture cross-country heterogeneity while ensuring consistent long-run estimates. Long-run results indicate that inflation (β=0.147; p<0.01), FDI (β=0.191; p<0.01), and government expenditure (β=0.390; p<0.01) positively and significantly affect GDP growth, whereas interest rates exert a negative impact (β=-0.249; p<0.01). Exchange rates show no significant long-run effect. In the short run, FDI (β=0.046; p<0.05) and exchange rate (β=0.876; p<0.01) significantly stimulate growth, while inflation shows marginal significance (β=0.044; p<0.10). The error correction term (β=-0.846; p<0.01) confirms rapid adjustment toward equilibrium. These findings highlight the importance of inflation stability, prudent monetary policy, FDI promotion, and efficient fiscal spending in sustaining economic growth across developing G20 countries.
THE ROLE OF LABOR IN MEDIATING THE EFFECT OF WAGES, INVESTMENT, EDUCATION AND HEALTH ON GROSS REGIONAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN INDONESIA Aini Rahma; Sirojuzilam; M. Syafii
Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue (MORFAI) Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue
Publisher : RADJA PUBLIKA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18502714

Abstract

Equitable and sustainable economic growth has become an important agenda in Indonesia’s development, especially through the strengthening of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). Labor is a main production factor that is suspected to play a mediating role in channeling the influence of various economic determinants on regional performance. This study aims to analyze the role of labor (LFPR) in mediating the influence of wages, domestic investment (PMDN), education, and health on GRDP in 34 provinces in Indonesia during the 2014–2023 period. The analysis was carried out using panel data with a path analysis approach and mediation testing using the Sobel Test. The results of the study show that directly wages, education, health, and investment have a significant effect on GRDP, while the influence of these variables on LFPR shows variations in significance. Indirectly, only wages and education are proven to have a significant effect on GRDP through LFPR as a mediating variable, while investment and health do not show significant mediation effects. These findings emphasize that improving the quality and involvement of labor is an important channel in transmitting the economic impact of wage and education improvements, while the influence of investment and health works more dominantly through direct mechanisms on economic output. This study contributes to strengthening the literature on human-capital-based development and provides more directed policy guidance in encouraging inclusive and sustainable regional economic growth.
Green Macroprudential Banking Stability Framework : A Global Transmission Mechanism Of Sustainable Finance Wahyu Indah Sari; Sirojuzilam Hasyim; M. Syafii
AJIRSS: Asian Journal of Innovative Research in Social Science Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): AJIRSS: Asian Journal of Innovative Research in Social Science
Publisher : DAS Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53866/ajirss.v5i1.1270

Abstract

The increasing exposure of the financial system to climate-related risks has encouraged the evolution of macroprudential policy toward sustainability-oriented frameworks. This study develops the Green Macroprudential Banking Stability Framework (GMBSF) as an integrated analytical model explaining how sustainable finance instruments influence banking system resilience. Unlike conventional approaches that treat green finance as a complementary policy, this research positions it as a core macroprudential transmission channel affecting systemic stability. The study employs a panel dynamic approach using multi-institution banking data over the 2015–2024 period to examine both short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium relationships between green financing, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance, and banking stability. Stability is proxied by the Z-Score, while capital adequacy, profitability, credit risk, and institutional size are incorporated as control variables. The empirical findings indicate that sustainable finance exposure and stronger ESG governance significantly enhance banking stability by improving risk absorption capacity, strengthening capital buffers, and reducing credit volatility. Conversely, higher non-performing loans weaken systemic resilience. The results support the argument that green finance functions as a macroprudential shock absorber within climate-sensitive financial systems. This study contributes theoretically by introducing a globally applicable green macroprudential framework that integrates sustainability indicators into systemic risk management architecture. The proposed GMBSF provides strategic implications for central banks and financial regulators in designing climate-responsive macroprudential policies to maintain financial stability during the transition toward a low-carbon economy.
Pengaruh Kenaikan Suku Bunga Dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia Sri Ayu Ningsi; M. Syafii
Science and Education Journal (SICEDU) Vol 5 No 3 (2026): Science and Education Journal 2026
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/sicedu.v5i3.789

Abstract

Pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan indikator utama keberhasilan pembangunan nasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh suku bunga acuan (BI Rate/BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode 2005–2025, yang mencakup krisis keuangan global, pandemi Covid-19, serta fase pemulihan ekonomi. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif eksplanatori dengan data sekunder time series tahunan dari Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik, World Bank, dan International Monetary Fund. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi linear berganda melalui EViews 13 dengan pengujian asumsi klasik meliputi normalitas, multikolinearitas, heteroskedastisitas, dan autokorelasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan inflasi berpengaruh negatif namun juga tidak signifikan. Secara simultan, kedua variabel tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (F = 1,9365; p = 0,1731) dengan koefisien determinasi (R²) sebesar 0,1771. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya kebijakan struktural sebagai pelengkap kebijakan moneter dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan.
Pengaruh Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia Lastaria Br Sinaga; M. Syafii
Science and Education Journal (SICEDU) Vol 5 No 3 (2026): Science and Education Journal 2026
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/sicedu.v5i3.790

Abstract

Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia selama periode 2005–2025. Menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif eksplanatori dengan metode regresi linear berganda terhadap 21 observasi data time series tahunan, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa secara parsial, IHSG berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (β = 0,0004; t = 0,7148; p = 0,4839), dan pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh negatif namun tidak signifikan (β = -1,6017; t = -1,1705; p = 0,2571). Secara simultan, kedua variabel tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (F = 1,5916; p = 0,2310). Koefisien determinasi menunjukkan R² sebesar 0,1503, yang berarti hanya 15,03% variasi pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat dijelaskan oleh kedua variabel tersebut. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa dinamika pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor lain yang lebih dominan, seperti konsumsi rumah tangga, investasi swasta, ekspor neto, dan stabilitas nilai tukar. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan implikasi kebijakan agar pemerintah tidak hanya mengandalkan instrumen pasar modal dan belanja pemerintah sebagai pendorong pertumbuhan, tetapi juga memperkuat fondasi makroekonomi secara lebih komprehensif.
Transparency, Accountability, and Public Trust in Indonesian Village Fund Governance: A SmartPLS Investigation with Corruption Risk as a Boundary Condition Ahmad Albar Tanjung; M. Syafii; Julpian Harahap
International Journal of Educational Review, Law And Social Sciences (IJERLAS) Vol. 6 No. 5 (2026): on Progress
Publisher : RADJA PUBLIKA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5281/ijerlas.v6i5.5780

Abstract

Purpose, Despite the substantial fiscal decentralisation embodied in Indonesia's Village Fund Programme (Dana Desa), persistent governance deficits continue to erode public trust in village government. This study develops and empirically tests a theoretically grounded model that positions accountability as the mechanism through which transparency of village fund reporting and community engagement translate into public trust, while investigating perceived corruption risk as a boundary condition that attenuates this mechanism.Design/methodology/approach, A cross-sectional survey was administered to 437 respondents drawn from purposively selected villages in three districts of North Sumatera Province, Deli Serdang, Simalungun, and Mandailing Natal, representing diverse administrative capacities and socio-economic contexts within a single province. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) using SmartPLS 4 was employed to assess the measurement and structural models, including mediation via bootstrapping and moderation through the product-indicator approach.Findings, Transparency and community engagement each exert significant positive effects on accountability, which in turn robustly predicts public trust. Mediation analyses confirm that accountability fully mediates the transparency–trust pathway and partially mediates the community engagement–trust pathway. Critically, perceived corruption risk significantly moderates the accountability–trust relationship, such that its salience substantially weakens the trust-generating capacity of accountability, even when accountability practices are formally observed. Digital reporting systems are confirmed as a significant antecedent of perceived transparency.Research limitations/implications, The cross-sectional design precludes causal inference, and the purposive sampling strategy constrains generalisability beyond the sampled districts. Future longitudinal research should track temporal dynamics and examine inter-village heterogeneity across North Sumatera's diverse adat governance traditions.Practical implications, Village governments should invest in institutionalising digital reporting platforms and structured participatory budgeting to concurrently raise transparency and community engagement. Anti-corruption communication strategies must accompany accountability reforms, as corruption risk perceptions independently suppress trust-building efficacy.Originality/value, This study advances public governance and public economics literature by articulating the conditional nature of the accountability–trust nexus within a fiscal decentralisation context, demonstrating that structural accountability reforms are necessary but insufficient when citizens carry entrenched corruption risk beliefs. The findings provide one of the first moderated-mediation examinations of village fund governance using variance-based SEM in a North Sumateran context, extending prior Java-centric research to a province with distinct customary governance traditions.
Co-Authors Ahmad Albar Tanjung Aini Rahma Andre Sitanggang Arif Rahman Damanik, Darwin Gabriel Amadeus Sitompul Hasan Basri Tarmizi Husni Mubaarak Inggrita Gusti Sari Nasution Julpian Harahap Lastaria Br Sinaga M. Wahyu Shihab Nadhira Syarifa Nasution Paidi Hidayat. M Rizky Azlina Siregar Sirojuzilam Sirojuzilam Hasyim Sirojuzilam Sirojuzilam Sitompul, Pretty Naomi Sri Ayu Ningsi Sufhia Br Tarigan Sukam Hayati Hakim Sukma Hayati Hakim Syahidin Syahidin Vania Grace Sianturi Wahyu Ario Pratomo Wahyu Indah Sari Wahyu Sugeng Imam Soeparno Weni Hawariyuni Widya Gustriani Harahap Zulfahmi Syahputra Nasution