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All Journal EXPERT: Jurnal Manajemen Sistem Informasi dan Teknologi JURNAL NASIONAL TEKNIK ELEKTRO Jurnal Informatika Universitas Pamulang Jurnal ICT : Information Communication & Technology JSAI (Journal Scientific and Applied Informatics) Journal of Information Systems and Informatics Jurnal Abdi Insani Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science International Journal of Computer and Information System (IJCIS) Jurnal Teknologi dan Manajemen Journal of Education and Culture Journal of Educational Technology, Curriculum, Learning, and Communication Journal of Embedded Systems, Security and Intelligent Systems
Dian Nugraha
Universitas Global Jakarta
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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A Temporal Patient Risk Timeline Framework for Longitudinal Clinical Deterioration Surveillance Using Hospital Data Warehouse and Machine Learning Herwanto; Dian Nugraha; Popy Yuniar
Journal of Information System and Informatics Vol 8 No 4 (2026): August
Publisher : Asosiasi Doktor Sistem Informasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63158/journalisi.v8i4.1680

Abstract

Clinical deterioration among hospitalized patients remains a major challenge in inpatient care management. Conventional deterioration monitoring approaches frequently rely on isolated physiological observations and static threshold-based scoring systems, which may inadequately represent the longitudinal nature of patient instability. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a retrospective temporal patient risk timeline framework for clinical deterioration surveillance using hospital data warehouse and machine learning. A retrospective longitudinal deterioration surveillance framework was developed using hourly inpatient observations derived from hospital operational and clinical data sources. A temporal XGBoost model was developed to predict ICU transfer within the subsequent 24-hour observation window under severe class imbalance conditions. To evaluate the additional value of temporal feature engineering, baseline non-temporal models including logistic regression, random forest, and non-temporal XGBoost were also developed using static observation-level variables. Operational feasibility was retrospectively demonstrated through a dashboard prototype integrating deterioration prioritization, patient timeline visualization, and longitudinal surveillance. The final dataset consisted of 20,181 inpatient admission episodes represented by 2,233,143 hourly observations. ICU transfer occurred in 712 admissions. Because the prediction task was formulated as hourly deterioration surveillance, ICU transfer labels represented only 0.65% of all hourly observations, indicating severe class imbalance. The temporal XGBoost model achieved an AUROC of 0.606 and an AUPRC of 0.009. While predictive discrimination was modest, the framework enabled continuous longitudinal representation of patient deterioration and retrospective surveillance of clinical instability. The findings suggest that temporal patient representation may provide operational and interpretative value beyond static snapshot-based deterioration monitoring approaches.
Co-Authors Abdul Majid Abir Oktaviani Ade Sunardi Adhes Gamayel Agung Pangestu Agung Pangestu Agung Pangestu Anindya Ananda Hapsari Ariandi Nugroho Arief, Yanuar Zulardiansyah Ariep Jaenul Ariep Janeul Arisa Olivia Putri Arya Arief Budiman Aulia Aryani Bakhtiar .K Brainvendra Widi Dionova Devan Junesco Vresdian Dewi Rahmasari Dwi Fitri Brianna Eldhiyano Pratama Elida, Elsa Faisal Dharma Adhinata Faizah, Safira Halimatu Ulfah Halimatu Ulfah Hamzah, Kamal Haryudiniarti, AN Hertin, RD Heru Dwi Permana Herwanto Herwanto Islam, IN Legenda Prameswono Pratama Lemi Iryani Leni Novianti M. N. Mohammed M.N.Mohammed Mariana Purba Mohamad Zaenudin Mohammed N. Abdulrazaq Mohammed, M. N. Muhammad Irsyad Abdullah Muhammad Irsyad Abdullah Nia Umilizah Novita Nurjannah Putri Paisal Permana, Muhammad Zidan Regi Popy Yuniar Revita Desi Hertin Rizki Adi Saputra Rizki Adrian Firdaus Rosyid Ridlo Al-Hakim Saleh, YKP Satria, Muhammad Haikal Sunardi, Ade Udriyah Untung Suprihadi Yasya Khalif Perdana Saleh Zaenudin, M