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All Journal Tekno : Jurnal Teknologi Elektro dan Kejuruan Teknologi dan Kejuruan: Jurnal teknologi, Kejuruan dan Pengajarannya Jurnal Pendidikan Sains Proceeding of the Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Informatics JOIN (Jurnal Online Informatika) JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization Jurnal Pendidikan (Teori dan Praktik) INTENSIF: Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Penerapan Teknologi Sistem Informasi Jurnal Ilmiah Flash JITK (Jurnal Ilmu Pengetahuan dan Komputer) JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) ILKOM Jurnal Ilmiah SENTIA 2016 MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika, dan Rekayasa Komputer JIPI (Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Informatika) EDUMATIC: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika TRIDARMA: Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (PkM) Community Development Journal: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Letters in Information Technology Education (LITE) Indonesian Journal of Instructional Media and Model Jurnal Pengabdian UNDIKMA Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF) Journal of Applied Data Sciences Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Indonesia (JPPI) Bulletin of Community Engagement Indonesian Journal of Innovation Studies Jurnal Nasional Teknik Elektro dan Teknologi Informasi Jurnal Informatika Teknologi dan Sains (Jinteks) JAPI: Jurnal Akses Pengabdian Indonesia JP (Jurnal Pendidikan) : Teori dan Praktik JURNAL PENGABDIAN PENDIDIKAN MASYARAKAT (JPPM) Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Riset Pendidikan Jurnal ilmiah teknologi informasi Asia
Triyanna Widiyaningtyas
Universitas Negeri Malang
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Nursing Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF)

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Comparison of Time Series Algorithms Using SARIMA and Prophet in Predicting Short-Term Bitcoin Prices Brilliant, Muhammad Zidan; Widiyaningtyas, Triyanna; Caesarendra, Wahyu
Jurnal Teknik Informatika (Jutif) Vol. 6 No. 4 (2025): JUTIF Volume 6, Number 4, Agustus 2025
Publisher : Informatika, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52436/1.jutif.2025.6.4.4773

Abstract

Digital finance, particularly Bitcoin, has become a global phenomenon with high volatility, posing great challenges for traders in predicting short-term prices. This study compares the performance of the SARIMA and Prophet algorithms in predicting short-term Bitcoin prices using daily closing price data from October 1, 2014, to October 1, 2024. The study utilizes two different data timeframes, a 10-year dataset (2014-2024) and the last 5 years (2019-2024) for comparative analysis. The SEMMA methodology is used to analyze and compare the two algorithms, which consist of the stages Sample, Explore, Modify, Model, and Assess. The experimental results show that SARIMA provides more stable and consistent results with an MAPE value of 1.24% and RMSE of 896.15 in Scenario 1 and an MAPE value of 1.27% and RMSE of 920.24 in Scenario 2. In contrast, Prophet shows different performance in each scenario. In Scenario 1, Prophet shows optimal results but not so good with an average MAPE of 1.74% and an RMSE value of 1214.86. On the other hand, Prophet showed good performance in Scenario 2 with a lower average MAPE of 0.71% and a smaller RMSE of 489.94, indicating Prophet's ability to handle newer and more dynamic datasets. Both models show their respective advantages; SARIMA is better for long and stable historical data, while Prophet is more effective for shorter and dynamic data. This research provides practical insights for traders and investors in choosing the right prediction model, with results for further study in predicting crypto asset prices.
Co-Authors - Ardiansyah, - Abdul Hadi, Afif Adam Ramadhani P Adiba Qonita Ahmad Farobi Ahmad Fuadi Aji P Wibawa Aji Prasetya Wibawa Ali, Waleed Annas Gading Pertiwi Arif Mudi Priyatno Aya Shofia Mufti Bambang Nurdewanto Bintang Romadhon Binti Afifah Brilliant, Muhammad Zidan Budi Wibowotomo Darwis, Herdianti Dasuki, Moh. Didik Dwi Prasetya Ega Gefrie Febriawan Elta Sonalitha Fadhlullah, Aufar Faiq Fadli Hidayat, M. Noer Falah, Moh Zainul Fitriyah Fitriyah Fitriyah Fitriyah Gading Pertiwi, Annas Gamma Fitrian Permadi Hairani Hairani Hakkun Elmunsyah Haviluddin Haviluddin Hazizah, Chalista Yulia Heru Wahyu Herwanto Hirashima, Tsukasa I Made Wirawan Imansyah, Pranadya Bagus Indriana, Poppy Kornelius Kamargo/Irawan Dwi Wahyono Kornelius Kamargo Kurniawan, Rizky Rizaldi M. Ardhika Mulya Pratama M. Habibullah Arief M. Zainal Arifin Martin Indra Wisnu Prabowo Maryani, Sri Moh Zainul Falah Moh. Robieth Alfan Alhamid Mohamad Yusuf Kurniawan Muhammad Afnan Habibi Muhammad Firman Aji Saputra Muhammad Iqbal Akbar Muhammad Jauharul Fuady Muhammad Rizki Irwanto Mulki Indana Zulfa, Mulki Indana Mulya Pratama, M. Ardhika Nafalski, Andrew Natasya Titania Ramadhanti Nazhiroh Tahta Arsyillah Nurhidayati Pindo Tutuko Poppy Indriana Purnawansyah Purnawansyah Qonita, Adiba Raja, Roesman Ridwan Ramdhani, Muhammad Ilham Rendy Yani Susanto Rhomdani, Rohmad Wahid Rismayanti, Nurul Rizal, Muhammad Fatkhur Rosydah, Lucyta Qutsyaning Saifudin, Ilham Salsabila, Nabila Sari, Heni Vidia Satria Putra Pratama Setiadi Cahyono Putro Shandy Krisnawan Sihombing, Wesly M Siti Sendari Soenar Soekopitojo Soraya Norma Mustika Sri Farida Utami Suastika Yulia Riska Sucipto Sucipto Sucipto Sucipto Sujito Sujito Syaad Patmanthara Syah, Abdullah Iskandar Syamsul Arifin Utomo Pujianto Wahyu Caesarendra Wahyu Sakti Gunawan Wahyu Sakti Gunawan Irianto Wibawa, Aji P Wisnu Prabowo, Martin Indra Yogi Dwi Mahandi Yuniardini, Fatma