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Journal : International Journal of Reconfigurable and Embedded Systems (IJRES)

Earthquake magnitude prediction in Indonesia using a supervised method based on cloud radon data Pratama, Thomas Oka; Sunarno, Sunarno; Wijatna, Agus Budhie; Haryono, Eko
International Journal of Reconfigurable and Embedded Systems (IJRES) Vol 13, No 3: November 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijres.v13.i3.pp577-585

Abstract

In the challenging realm of earthquake prediction, the reliability of forecasting systems has remained a persistent obstacle. This study focuses on earthquake magnitude prediction in Indonesia, leveraging supervised machine learning techniques and cloud radon data. We present an analysis of the tele-monitoring system, data collection methods, and the application of regression-based machine learning algorithms. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning 30 training instances and 105 test instances, the study evaluates multiple metrics to ascertain the efficacy of the prediction models. Our findings reveal that the linear regression approach yields the best earthquake magnitude prediction method, with the lowest values across multiple evaluation metrics: standard deviation 0.40, mean absolute error (MAE) 0.30, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 6%, root mean square error (RMSE) 0.52, mean squared error (MSE) 0.28, symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) 0.06, and conformal normalized mean absolute percentage error (cnSMAPE) 0.97. Additionally, we discuss the implications of the research results and the potential applications in enhancing existing earthquake prediction methodologies.
Co-Authors Agus Budhie Wijatna Agus Riyanto, Indra Ahmad Cahyadi **) Al Murtaqi , Moch. Ridwan Aries Dwi Siswanto Danardono, Danardono Diah, Husna Didik S Dzakwan Taufiq Nur Muhammad Eka Sulistiyowati Emilya Nurjani ENDANG SUTARININGSIH SOETARTO Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei Faiz Zainal Muttaqin Fajri Ramadhan Fatchurohman, Hendy Fattah Tastian, Naufal Hakim, Arief Abdurrahman Haryadi Permana Hatma Suryatmojo Hilary Reinhart Imam Fauzi Indra Agus Riyanto J. Susetyo Edy Y Jamulya . Jamulya ., Jamulya Khoirul Anwar Langgeng Wahyu Santosa M Iqbal Taufiqurrahman Sunariya M Widyastuti M. Widyastuti Margaretha Widyastuti Muhamad Wahyudin Muhammad Alwan Aziz Muhammad Asyroful Mujib Muhammad Baiquni Muhammad Naufal Muhammad Naufal, Muhammad Mustofa, Hidayatul Naufal Fattah Tastian Ngaji, Alfred Umbu Kuala Ni'matus Sa'adah, Ulfa Nisa, Raysa Khoirun Nugroho Adji, Tjahyo Nur Lailatul Izzah , Armiya Nurani, Idea Wening Petre, Angelo Andi Pradipa, Hanindha Pratama, Thomas Oka Puguh Dwi Raharjo Putra, Eko Bayu Dharma Putra, Rakhmat Dwi Qoniatun, Siti Rini Rachmawati Riyanto, Indra Agus Rizki Adriadi Ghiffari Rohmah, Amandita Ainur Romza Fauzan Agniy Rossie Wiedya Nusantara Rossie Wiedya Nusantara Saralah, Thas SARIMAN Satrio, Fahry Adhi Septian, Damar Setiadi Setiadi Setiawan, Muhammad Anggri Sudarmadji Sudarmadji Sudarmadji Sudarmadji Sudarmadji Sudrajat Sudrajat Sunarno Sunarno Taufiq Nur Muhammad, Dzakwan Tjahyo Nugroho Adji Tjahyo Nugroho Adji Tjut S. Djohan Tjut Sugandawaty Djohan Wahyu Broto R Winardi Winardi