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Journal : Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity)

Bayesian Survival Mixture Model on Years of Schooling in West Papua Province Nitivijaya, Maulidiah; Iriawan, Nur; Kuswanto, Heri
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2015: Proceeding ISETH (International Conference on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/iseth.2375

Abstract

Education could be considered as one of the basic pillars to determine the performance indicator of a respective region. Year of schooling is one of the education indexes,which becomes the government's target in the 9-year compulsory education program. This index illustrates the importance of knowledge and higher-level skills. Meanwhile, West Papua Province as one of the youngest provinces in Indonesia is challenged to improve the quality of human resources, particularly in the underdeveloped regions. Therefore, it is important to identify the variables which influence the years of schooling in the West Papua province. Statistically, the type of data such as length of time is frequently used to be the survival analysis. Nevertheless, the distribution patternof the response variables is difficult to be analyzed. For that reason, this study applied mixture model on years of schooling. Mixture model estimation leads to the complex statistical problems with a number of parameters. Bayesian methods accomplish the estimation through the simulation process of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The survival mixture model was formed based on the status of county. Rural areas were evidenced to give the contribution of years of schooling distribution more than urban area up to 59.87 percent. The opportunity to obtain formal education at least to junior high school in urban areas was greater than rural area had, yet it went down faster in year 12-th or in senior high school level. In general, the factors which influenced the years of schooling in urban and rural areas turned out to be different.
Modeling Inflation Volatility Using ARIMAX-GARCH Aryani, Sri; Kuswanto, Heri; Suhartono, S
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2015: Proceeding ISETH (International Conference on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/iseth.2386

Abstract

Forecasting inflation is necessary as a basis for making decisions and high quality good planning in economic development in Indonesia particularly for the government and businessmen. The forecasting generally uses time series data. However, there is a time series data which is difficult to obtain stationary, i.e., the variance on financial time series data such as the stock price index, interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and etc. It is mainly caused by the inconsistency of variance (heteroscedasticity). This study developed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using exogenous factors, namely the price of oil and outlier detection to forecast inflation. Another modeling which is expected to solve the problem of heteroscedasticity is a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. In this study, the asymmetric GARCH of Glosten Jagannathan Runkle-GARCH (GJR-GARCH) was carried out. This model could accommodate the volatility in the form of negative shocks that can leverage the effect. The data used in this study was the Inflation rate of Indonesia and world oil prices in January 1991 to December 2014 respectively. The results showed that ARIMAX-GJR GARCH is the best model to forecast national inflation volatility.
The Comparison of Classical and Bayesian Bivariate Binary Logistic Regression Prediction for Unbalanced Response (Case Study: Customers of Antivirus Software 'X' Company) Susila, Muktar Redy; Kuswanto, Heri; Fithriasari, Kartika
Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) 2015: Proceeding ISETH (International Conference on Science, Technology, and Humanity)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/iseth.2394

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of classical bivariate binary logistic regression and Bayesian bivariate binary logistic regression. The sizes of sample used in research were small and large sample. The size of the small sample was 200 and the large sample was 10000 samples. Parameter estimation method that often used in logistic regression modeling is maximum likelihood which is called the classical approach. However, using a maximum likelihood parameter estimation has several weaknesses. When the number of sample is small and the dependent variable is unbalanced, bias parameters are frequently obtained. Nevertheless, when the sample size is too large, it has propensity to reject H0. As the solution, the use of Bayesian approach to overcome the small sample size problem and unbalanced dependent variable is suggested. The case study carried out in this research was customer loyalty of 'X' Company. This study used two dependent variables, i.e. Customer Defections and Contract Answer. Initial information on the number of consumers who defected and not defected was unbalanced, likewise for the Contract Answers. Based on the comparison of classical and Bayesian bivariate binary logistic regression prediction, Bayesian method was evidenced to yield better performance compared to classical method.