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All Journal JOURNAL ON SOCIAL ECONOMIC OF AGRICULTURE AND AGRIBUSINESS Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences Jurnal Cakrawala Ilmiah Jurnal Prointegrita Serambi Engineering
Satia Negara Lubis
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Journal : Serambi Engineering

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Prediksi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan di DAS Deli Hulu Menggunakan Metode Artificial Neural Network Harahap, Ahmad Husein; Satia Negara Lubis; Bejo Slamet
Jurnal Serambi Engineering Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025): Januari 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Serambi Mekkah

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Abstract

Human demand for land continues to increase with rapid population growth. This rapid population growth rate will certainly affect land cover changes, which will be increasingly high and may have an impact on land and environmental conversion, especially in the river basin area. One of the catchments that may be affected is the Deli catchment, in particular the Deli Hulu catchment area. The Deli Hulu watershed is geographically located in the administrative area of Deli Serdang Regency and Karo Regency, which have large populations. Therefore, this triggers land use patterns. This study aims to analyse the changes of land cover in Deli Hulu Watershed area in 2013, 2018, 2023 to predict the land cover in 2033. This study uses 6 driving factors, namely distance from roads, distance from rivers, distance from settlements, population density, slope and altitude. This study uses Artificial Neural Network-Markov chain modelling to predict land cover changes in 2033. The results of the study show that the predicted land cover in the Deli Hulu watershed in 2033 is Dryland Forest 3,318 ha (17.16%), Plantations 2,800 ha (14.48%), Settlements 959 ha (4.96%), Dryland Agriculture 11,311 ha (58.49%), Rice Fields 873 ha (4.51%) and Open Land 78 ha (0.40%).
Co-Authors Ahmad Muzzani Alfredo Pahala Simanjuntak Aria Pratama Zein Artalia Br Sitorus AT Hutajulu Atika Sari Azrul Ali Akbar Beatrice Ingrid Dachi Bejo Slamet Bella Pebriyani Panjaitan Brian Fernando Saragih Cici Erfanni Cindy Oktavia Siahaan Citra Paraditha David Koko Naibaho Dhieni Maghfira Diana Kusumawati Emalisa Emalisa Ezra Hilda Simorangkir Fauzi Indra Prawira Fauziah, Lily Fisrika Lahagu Fitri Widyaningsih Futri Medwina H. Hasman Hasyim Halimah Halimah Harahap, Ahmad Husein Hasian A K Tambun Hasman Hasyim Henny Crosita Limbong HM Mozard B Darus Husna Dwita Ika Puspita Sari Ika Saputri Dewi Indah Wiyani Putri Iskandarini Juli Yanti Kelin Tarigan Kristina Hariyani Kurnia Rinanda F Siregar Kurniawan Saleh Lily Fauzia Luhut Sihombing M. Fadhil Arrahman Lubis M. Jufri M. Mozart B. Darus M. S. Khoirul Imami Sitorus Matius Bangun Meinia Singgar Niari Monalisa Hasibuan Muhammad Ikhlasul Amal Mutiara Sani Natalina Sri Ulina Ginting Negara Lubis Nina Elbrasa Br Barus NOVA ANDRIANI Nova Novitasari Nur Febrini Ovistevi Munthe Pristia Juli Astuti Nasution Puji Adelina S Qhori Yasinta Rahmanta Ginting Rahmanta Rahmanta Raja Kamsyah Bangun Rizal Adha Ananda Rizka Faradina Rizki Taufik Harahap Rizky Dina Anggriani Robby TP Rumapea Ruth Roma Uli Nainggolan Ryan Franklin Salmiah Salmiah Santa Agnes H Manik Sarim Sembiring Sepriyanti Veronika Barus Shella Agustia Purba Sinar Indera Kesuma Sinar Indra Kesuma Sinar Indra Kusuma Siti Khadijah Siti Nurkhaliza Siti Sara Sri Ulina Sri Wahyuni Sugiharto Pujangkoro Syahrial Ramadhan Tahani Badrul Munir TATI NURHAYATI Tavi Supriana Thomson Sebayang Tika Agustina Mora Titus Egatama Sembiring Ulima Mandasari Sitorus Wenny Mahdalena L.G Wuddan Murtaza Lubis Yohana K. Sinaga Yusak Maryunianta