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All Journal FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI IPTEK The Journal for Technology and Science CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Hortikultura Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Jambura Journal of Mathematics InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics SRIWIJAYA JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT Milang Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications MILANG Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
I Wayan Mangku
Departemen Matematika, Fakultas MIPA, IPB University, Jawa Barat,
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Earth & Planetary Sciences Energy Environmental Science Mathematics Public Health

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Time-varying Distribution Analysis for Rainfall and Air Temperature Data in Jakarta in Response to Future Climate Change Suci Nur Setyawati; Sri Nurdiati; I Wayan Mangku; Mohamad Khoirun Najib
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 2 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.32780

Abstract

AbstractIndonesia is vulnerable to climate change (rainfall and air temperature), which can increase the chances of climatic disasters. An organized risk analysis is a strategic plan to minimize the impact. The purpose of this research is to estimate time-varying distribution parameters for normal, generalized extreme value (GEV), and lognormal distributions using fminsearch and MLE algorithms on rainfall and air temperature data in Jakarta, as well as visualize and analyze the best time-varying distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is used for stationary distribution parameter estimation. The fminsearch algorithm is used for stationary and nonstationary distribution parameter estimation. The highest difference value of stationary distribution parameter results from both methods is 5.3768 mm for rainfall data and 0.2670°C for air temperature data. The results of the best distribution based on the AIC value are the 3-parameter lognormal distribution for rainfall data and the 4-parameter GEV distribution for air temperature data. Over time, the variance of rainfall increases, and the average air temperature increases with a fixed variance.
Co-Authors A.Tuti Rumiati Ahmad Fajri Ahmad Fajri Aji Hamim Wigena Anang Kurnia Anas D Susila Andri Hermawan Andri Hermawan, Andri Andriani, Rizka D Anik Djuraidah Ardana, N. K. Kutha Arief Gusnanto ASEP SAEFUDDIN Atang Sutandi Auliya Fithry Bagus Sartono Bambang S Purwoko Bib Paruhum Silalahi Chairunisa, Ghevira Chasanah, Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Dave Ananda Osferi Deiby T Salaki Dewi Juliah Ratnaningsih Dhea Ekaputri Dilla Afriansyah Ekaputri, Dhea Faisal Muhammad Faisal Muhammad, Faisal Fatimah Azzahra Febby Dwi Kurniawati Ghevira Chairunisa Hadi Sumarno Hadi Sumarno Henriyansah Henriyansah Herlina Hanum Herlina Hanum, Herlina Hermanto Siregar Himmatul Mursyidah Huda, Mifathul I Gusti Putu Purnaba Ikhsan Fajri, Ikhsan Imni, Salsabila Fitri Jajang Jajang Kusman Sadik Luthfi Izhar M. Hadziq Rafli Fasya N. K. Kutha Ardana Najib, Mohamad Khoirun Nikmah Isnaeni Sakbaniyah Nurul Indah Safitri Putri, Renda S. P. Rakhain Alyssa Humaira Renda S. P. Putri Retno Budiarti Rismawati, Dillah Rizka D Andriani Safitri, Nurul Indah Salsabila Fitri Imni Sanjaya, Wardah siswadi - Siti Muchlisoh Sri Nurdiati Suci Nur Setyawati Syarif Abdullah Utama, Muhammad Wiranadi Wardah Sanjaya Yulianty, Sherly