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Red Curly Chili Forecast in Southeast Sulawesi Using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Al Qadri, Muhammad Vannes; Saputra, Rizal Adi; Pramono, Bambang
Jurnal CoreIT: Jurnal Hasil Penelitian Ilmu Komputer dan Teknologi Informasi Vol 11, No 1 (2025): June 2025
Publisher : Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/coreit.v11i1.33986

Abstract

Abstract. Price is a crucial aspect in the world of trade. Red curly chili peppers have become one of the plants favored by many consumers. This research aims to develop a forecasting model that can provide a more accurate insight into the future prices of red chili peppers, particularly in Southeast Sulawesi. Because price forecasting plays a crucial role in predicting future price trends, the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method becomes one of the models that can be used for time series analysis. The data for this research is sourced from the National Food Body Price Panel Website. The data period starts from August 8, 2022, to December 15, 2023, with the last 500 days' prices used as both test and training data. In this study, the ARIMA (1,1,1) model emerged as the best among the three ARIMA models analyzed. The ARIMA (1,1,1) model yielded a MAPE percentage of 17.97%, indicating that this model is suitable or reliable for time series forecasting. Furthermore, the results of this experiment show that the forecasted prices for the next 10 days do not experience significant decreases or increases, referring to several recent data points used as training data samples.
Battery Electric Vehicle Adoption in Indonesia: Insights from Consumer Preferences and Stakeholder Perspectives Adzhani, Indira Ayu; Pramono, Bambang; Santoso, M. Setyawan; Wirayat, Mohamed Yusuf Faridian; Okdinawati, Liane; Belgiawan, Prawira Fajarindra
Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum Vol. 11 No. 3 (September 2025)
Publisher : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/jcef.22067

Abstract

Indonesia’s adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) remains limited, posing a challenge to the government’s ambitious targets for 2030 and beyond. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative insights from focus group discussions and stakeholder interviews with quantitative analysis using a mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model. The stated preference survey includes 1,360 respondents across six provinces in Java, providing broader geographic coverage than most prior studies in Indonesia. The analysis covers both two-wheeler (2W) and four-wheeler (4W) BEVs, while also differentiating preferences by brand, an often-overlooked factor in the Indonesian context. The MMNL results confirm that charging time, range, operational cost, and price significantly influence BEV preferences, with variations across vehicle segments and brand types. Shared concerns from both supply- and demand-side perspectives include affordability, underdeveloped charging infrastructure, and limited product-market fit. However, divergent priorities are evident: industry stakeholders emphasize the need for technological upgrades, consistent policy signals, and improvements in upstream supply chains, while consumers prioritize convenience and final purchase or operating costs, showing less sensitivity to advanced technical specifications. This study contributes to the literature by offering an integrated demand–supply perspective on BEV adoption in an emerging economy, while also introducing brand differentiation and wider geographic sampling as key novelties. Policy recommendations include accelerating fast-charging infrastructure, standardizing batteries, localizing battery production, and implementing stronger disincentives for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The strategic enforcement of Presidential Instruction No. 7/2022 is also highlighted as a critical step to demonstrate government commitment. Together, these insights provide actionable guidance for accelerating a more inclusive and effective transition to electric mobility in Indonesia.