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EXPLAINABLE FORECASTING OF APPAREL AND FOOTWEAR TRADE VALUES: FEATURE ATTRIBUTION IN A LEAKAGE-SAFE TIME-BASED FRAMEWORK Ridwan Dwi Irawan; Marta Ardiyanto; Ringgo Ismoyo Buwono; Adam Sasando
Proceeding of the International Conference Health, Science And Technology (ICOHETECH) 2026: Proceeding of the 7th International Conference Health, Science And Technology (ICOHETECH)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Duta Bangsa Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47701/t4gg6j55

Abstract

Accurate trade-value forecasts are increasingly required to be not only precise but also interpretable, so that model outputs can be audite d before informing trade and logistics decisions. This study extends a previously validated leakage-safe forecasting framework for Indonesia's apparel and footwear commodities (HS 61, HS 62, HS 63, and HS 64) by adding formal feature attribution to the best-performing model. Monthly trade values from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) covering January 2017 to March 2026 were modeled using nineteen predictors spanning historical lags, rolling statistics, calendar-seasonal signals, and exogenous variables, under a strict chronological train-validation-test protocol. Random Forest, the strongest model in the prior comparison with a holdout MAPE of 22.7746 percent, ahead of Extra Trees Regression at 22.9469 percent and SARIMA at 28.9794 percent, is interpreted using permutation importance and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Attribution results show that contribute most to out-of-sample predictions, while exogenous variables. The framework demonstrates that accuracy and transparency can be obtained jointly on official trade statistics.
OPTIMIZATION OF MATERIAL STORAGE LAYOUTUSING THE CLASS-BASED STORAGE METHODAT PT PLN (PERSERO) UP3 SURAKARTA Damara Jibran Novianto; Febrina Agusti; Ringgo Ismoyo Buwono
Proceeding of the International Conference Health, Science And Technology (ICOHETECH) 2026: Proceeding of the 7th International Conference Health, Science And Technology (ICOHETECH)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Duta Bangsa Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47701/tgwv6k60

Abstract

This study aims to optimize the material storage layout atthe Jajar Warehouse of the Logistics Section of PT PLN(Persero) UP3 Surakarta by applying the Class-BasedStorage (CBS) method based on ABC Analysis. The existingwarehouse layout was not organized according to materialmovement frequency, resulting in long picking distances,inefficient retrieval processes, and increased operationaltime. The research employed a quantitative descriptiveapproach using material movement data collected fromJanuary to December 2024. Initially, ABC Analysis wasconducted to classify 129 material types into threecategories based on movement frequency. Theclassification results were then used as the basis fordesigning a new storage layout using the Class-BasedStorage method, where fast-moving materials were placedcloser to the warehouse input/output area. Theeffectiveness of the proposed layout was evaluated bycomparing the total picking distance before and afterimplementation. The results indicate that the proposedlayout reduced the total picking distance from 41,074,213meters to 25,199,026 meters, representing a reduction of15,875,193 meters (38.65%). These findings demonstratethat the integration of ABC Analysis and Class-BasedStorage significantly improves warehouse operationalefficiency by minimizing material travel distance andenhancing the material retrieval process.