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Bambang Susanto
Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana
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Journal : JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

 1 
Prediksi Laju Inflasi dengan Metode Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Berdasarkan Data Laju Inflasi dan Pengeluaran Kota Ternate masipupu, Frangky Aristiadi; setiawan, Adi; Susanto, Bambang
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 6, No 1 (2025): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v6i1.30627

Abstract

Inflation is one of the main indicators that reflect the economic stability of a region. Ternate City, as one of the cities in North Maluku Province, exhibits fluctuating inflation dynamics from year to year. This study aims to forecast the inflation rate in Ternate using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method, which is a neural network architecture well-suited for processing time series data. The data used consists of monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for Ternate from 2016 to 2023, obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The LSTM model was trained using monthly CPI changes as the basis for calculating inflation. The model evaluation results show a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.9275, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.8369, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 20.13%. These results indicate that the LSTM model performs well in forecasting inflation in Ternate City and can be utilized as a decision-support tool in regional economic planning and policymaking.   
PERBANDINGAN HASIL PERAMALAN JUMLAH WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DENGAN METODE BOX-JENKINS DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING SARI, EMMA NOVITA; SUSANTO, BAMBANG; SETIAWAN, ADI
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 2, No 1 (2021): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v2i1.9181

Abstract

Forecasting the number of tourist visits is needed by tourism businesses to provide an overview of the number of tourists in the future so that problems that might occur can be overcome properly. This study aims to compare the results of forecasting the number of foreign tourists using the Box-Jenkins and Exponential Smoothing methods. There are two data used, namely data on the number of foreign visitors visiting Indonesia from January 2008 to December 2017 (Data I) and Bali according to the entrance of Ngurah Rai Airport from January 2009 to March 2020 (Data II). The best forecast results are obtained by comparing the Root of Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. The comparison of forecasting results in Data I shows that the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method is more appropriate to predict the number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia because it has a smaller RMSE value. While, the results of forecasting periods 2 and 3 in Data II show results that are far different from the original data. After tracking, it turns out this is caused by an unexpected factor, the Covid-19 pandemic which caused the number of tourists to drop significantly during this period.
Co-Authors Adi Setiawan Adrianus Herry Heriadi Agus Priyono Alfagustina, Yumita Cristin Alfida Tegar Nurani Algunadi, Muhammad Alicia Anggelia Lumbantoruan Alz Danny Wowor Asido Saragih Awik Hidayati Carolina Febe Ronicha Putri Denny Indrajaya Didit B Nugroho Didit Budi Nugroho Dini Kurniawati Dudi Rudianto Dwi Tristianto Egidius Saut Poltak Situmorang Elsa Septyana Endang Ruswanti Eva Rachmawati Faldy Tita Haay, Happy Alyzhya Hanna Arini Parhusip Hanna Arini Parhusip Herdiyanti, Gita Hersusetiyati, Hersusetiyati Johanes Dian Kurniawan Kezia Natalia Putri Prasetia Khalingga, M Ariq Khalingga, Muhammad Ariq Kholil, Zaini Kurniawan, Johanes Dian Laurentia Nindya Sari Prameswara Lenox Larwuy Leopoldus Ricky Sasongko Lestari, Dina Aulia Lilik Linawati Maria Anita masipupu, Frangky Aristiadi Mince M. M. Rosely Modjo, Marchella Ellena Nugraha, Rian Nanda Nuryani, Dwi Panjaitan, Lam Peter Petrus Priyo Santosa Prasetia, Kezia Natalia Putri PURWANTI PURWANTI Putri, Zefania Sasongko Ratnawati, Aryanti Rebecca Rorimpandey Ricky Agusiady Rima Dwijayanty Rinadi, Geraldus Anggoro Rorimpandey, Rebecca Saepudin Saepudin Saragah R Pratama SARI, EMMA NOVITA Setiawan, Audita Sukadwilinda Suroto, Agung Suryasatriya Trihandaru Susetyo, Yosia Adi Syafi’i, Syafi’i Tanujaya, Lukhia Britanthia Christina Tri Pujadi Susilo Tundjung Mahatma Vania Beatrice Liwandouw Visher Laja Jaja wahyu ngestisari Wulandari, Nadya Putri Yohanes Sardjono Yohanes Sardjono, Yohanes Zaenal Aripin