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Suryasatriya Trihandaru
Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana
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Journal : Science and Technology Indonesia

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Susceptible Vaccine Infected Removed (SVIR) Model for COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia Hanna Arini Parhusip; Suryasatriya Trihandaru; Bernadus Aryo Adhi Wicaksono; Denny Indrajaya; Yohanes Sardjono; Om Prakash Vyas
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 7 No. 3 (2022): July
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2154.038 KB) | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2022.7.3.400-408

Abstract

Analysis of data on COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is shown by using the Susceptible Vaccine Infected Removed (SVIR) in this article. In the previous research, cases in the period March-May 2021 were studied, and the reproduction number was computed based on the Susceptible Infected Removed (SIR) model. The prediction did not agree with the real data. Therefore the objective of this article is to improve the model by adding the vaccine variable leading to the new model called the SVIR model as the novelty of this article. The used data are collected from COVID-19 cases of the Indonesian population published by the Indonesian government from March 2020-April 2022. However, the vaccinated persons with COVID-19 cases have been recorded since January 2022. Therefore the models rely on the period January 2021-March 2022, where the parameters in the SIR and SVIR models are determined in this period. The method used is discretizing the models into linear systems, and these systems are solved by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) for time-dependent parameters. It is assumed that the birth rate and death rate in the considered period are constant. Additionally, individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 will not be infected again, and vaccination is not necessarily twice. Furthermore, individuals who have been vaccinated will not be infected with the COVID-19 virus. The SVIR model has captured 3 waves of COVID-19 cases that are appropriate to the real situation in Indonesia from January 2021-March 2022. Additionally, the reproduction numbers as functions of time have been generated. The fluctuations of reproduction numbers agree with the real data. For further research, different regions such as districts in Java and other islands will also be analyzed as the implication of this research.
Co-Authors Abigail Geofani Boham Adi Setiawan Adita Sutresno Adrianus Herry Heriadi Adrianus Herry Heriadi Alvama Pattiserlihun Alvama Pattiserlihun Alvama Pattiserlihun Ambat, Jordi Enal Andreas Setiawan Ariany Mahastanti, Linda Bambang Susanto Bambang Susanto Bernadus Aryo Adhi Wicaksono Carolina Febe Ronicha Putri Daniel Eliazar Latumaerissa Denny Indrajaya Denny Indrajaya Desman P. Gulo Dian Widiyanto Chandra Didit Budi Nugroho Djoko Hartanto Djoko Hartanto Dwi Pangestuti Fachrurrozi Fachrurrozi Fachrurrozi Ferdy S. Rondonuwu Ferdy Semuel Rondonuwu Ferri Rusady Saputra Gede Sutresna Wijaya Giner Maslebu Goni, Abdiel Wilyar Haay, Happy Alyzhya Hanna Arini Parhusip Hanna Arini Parhusip Harendza, David Hariadi, Adrianus Herry Harry Budiharjo Sulistyarso Heriadi, Adrianus Herry Heriyanto Heriyanto Indrajaya, Denny Inti Mustika Isman Mulyadi Triatmoko, Isman Mulyadi Ivanky Saputra Jane Labadin Johanes Dian Kurniawan Johanes Dian Kurniawan Johanes Dian Kurniawan Karina Bianca Lewerissa Kristoko Dwi Hartomo Kurniawan, Johanes Dian Larasati, Mitchella Sinta Laurentius Kuncoro Probo Saputra, Laurentius Kuncoro Probo Lea, Lea Leenawaty Limantara Leksono Mucharam Lilik Linawati Linda Ariany Mahastanti Made Rai Suci Shanti Nurani Ayub Mohamad Hidayatullah Muninggar, Puput Retno Natalia Diyaning Gulita Om Prakash Vyas Parung, Ratu Anggriani Tangke Petrus Priyo Santosa Prayitno, Gunawan Puspasari, Magdalena Dwi Rahmawanto, Setya Budi Riana Amalia Rony, Zahara Tussoleha Santosa, Petrus Priyo Sari, Devina Intan Sebastian, Danny Septoratno Siregar Silamai Tya Mariani Famani Sinatra Canggih Siti Fatimah Slamet Santosa Slamet Santosa Sri Yulianto Joko Prasetyo Susetyo, Yosia Adi Sutarto Wijono Utari, Galuh Retno Victory Immanuel Ratar Wahyu Kurniawan Wahyu Kurniawan Wandi Wantoro wendelina anggriani Winarto, Eduardus Albert Y. Sardjono Yayi Suryo Prabandari Yenusi, Yuni naomi Yohanes Martono Yohanes Sardjono Yohanes Sardjono Yohanes Sardjono Yohanes Sardjono, Yohanes Yohannes Sardjono Yohannes Sardjono Yuliawan, Kristia