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All Journal Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi Journal of Business and Management The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Journal of Engineering and Management in Industrial System Journal of Regional and City Planning Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan EKOMBIS REVIEW: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM) International Research Journal of Business Studies (E-Journal) International Journal of Supply Chain Management Jurnal Darma Agung International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Automotive Experiences Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian The South East Asian Journal of Management Journal Research of Social Science, Economics, and Management Cerdika: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia Journal of Business, Social and Technology Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Studies Journal Integration of Management Studies International Research Journal of Business Studies Jurnal Bisnis dan Pemasaran Digital International Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems
Gatot Yudoko
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Journal : Jurnal Ekonomi

 1 
Forecasting the potential output and growth of the manufacturing industry: a case study of Indonesia's manufacturing sector Permana, Tirta Wisnu; Yudoko, Gatot; Prasetio, Eko Agus
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol 24, No 2: October 2023
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v24i2.18716

Abstract

Indonesia is currently experiencing deindustrialization, characterized by a manufacturing industrial sector growth rate lower than the overall economic growth rate. Therefore, it is necessary to encourage the development of the industrial sector to achieve sustainable development. The scenario for industrial development policy is determined based on an evaluation of the country's economic position in relation to current business cycle conditions. The evaluation is carried out through output gap analysis, which refers to the gap between actual and potential output. The research aim is to analyze output potential estimates and gaps in the Indonesian non-oil and gas processing industry sector. The methodology used in this research includes the HP Filter (Hodrick-Prescott), BP Filter (Band-Pass), and the Production Function Approach. The findings show that Indonesia's non-oil and gas processing industry experienced a slight decline below its potential between 2020 and 2021. Therefore, policymakers must consider this; in the short term, inflationary pressures are caused by a positive output gap, so the government needs to prioritize efforts to control inflation. Meanwhile, medium-term structural reforms must continue to increase potential output, including increasing labor force participation, sustainable investment for capital factors, and improving the quality of human resources and technological expertise for productivity factors. In particular, it is necessary to pay attention to the adoption of new emerging technologies.
Co-Authors Abimanyu, Cristian Agung Pascasuseno Agus Suwarto Agus, Anna Amalyah Aji Nugraha Pratama Alberto, Richard Ananto Veryadesa, Ananto Andini, Trisnawati Anugrah Wangsa, Airin Ardiansyah, Pandu Zea Ariawan, Yona Arie Rachmadi Djunaedi Armanda Putra, Mochammad Ravi Arya Nugraha Astrid Hapsari Ningrum, Astrid Hapsari Aya Ishigaki Azizah, Mutiara Alena Bartholomeus Dewantoro Bayu Ananta Perwira, Bayu Ananta Benny Pahala Hutahaean Candrasmurti, Awindya Cashiwan, Cashiwan Daniel Happy Putra Dewi, Nurlaela Kumala Dewi, Nurlaela Kumala Dian Ekawati Eidelweijs A Putri Eko Agus Prasetio ES Heru Praptono, ES Heru Fadila Rusman, Denia Firmansyah Arifin, Firmansyah Firra Astria Noezar Fortranansi Firdaus, Devin Grimaldi, Gemma Hari Lubis Heru Purboyo Hidayat Putro Imaniya**, Taliya Imaniya, Taliya Isti R Mirzanti Jasmine, Tamara Latifah Kembaren, Pennoh Philips Kenji Koido Khisbulloh, Wijaya Kiyoshi Dowaki Krishna Permadi Krisna Uvala Hardi Kurniawan, Muslim El Hakim Kurniawan, Muslim El Hakim Kusnadi, Asana Kusuma Anuraga, Hilarius Yuda Kusumawardani, Farah Almira Lesmana, Haris Lestari, Ayu Gema LIANE OKDINAWATI, LIANE Limowa, Agung lqsan Diaz Mariany W Lidia Miharja, Miming Miharja, Miming Miming Miharja Mudya, Dinda Ratna Muhamad Ibnu Fauzi Muhammad Hanafi Muhammad, Firdaus Yusri Mulyono*, Nurbudi Mursyid Hasan Basri Nafila, Revina Nida Natalia, Natalia Nur Budi Mulyono Nurlaela Kumala Dewi Pangestu, Rifki Rahmadian Parcelino Prabowo, Rommy Paseru, Alvito Tirano Permana, Tirta Wisnu Pradono, Pradono Pratiwi, Ratna Endah Prilandita, Niken Putra, Anar Arsyid Wali Masâ??ud Reyhan Zachary, Reyhan Rima Beladina Subekti, Rima Beladina Ruhaiya, Fikka Saiful Hidayat Sanusi, Dudu Anwar Satria Yoelis Wardhana, Satria Yoelis Sitadewi, Dania Sony Susanto Stepanus Ady Triwidodo Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono Sulyani, Agnesia Candra Suprapto, Juny Surna Tjahja Djajadiningrat Surya Ibrahim Irsyam Sylviana Maya Damayanti Takeshi Arai Tatag Muttaqin Togar M Simatupang Wahyu Wirawan Wahyudi, Petrus Tri Wanda Listiani Widjajani Widjajani Yuanita Handayati Zahara, Dhenok Puspita